Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference
Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference

Author: Momiao Xiong

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2022-02-03

Total Pages: 666

ISBN-13: 1000531759

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Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference address the recent development of relationships between artificial intelligence (AI) and causal inference. Despite significant progress in AI, a great challenge in AI development we are still facing is to understand mechanism underlying intelligence, including reasoning, planning and imagination. Understanding, transfer and generalization are major principles that give rise intelligence. One of a key component for understanding is causal inference. Causal inference includes intervention, domain shift learning, temporal structure and counterfactual thinking as major concepts to understand causation and reasoning. Unfortunately, these essential components of the causality are often overlooked by machine learning, which leads to some failure of the deep learning. AI and causal inference involve (1) using AI techniques as major tools for causal analysis and (2) applying the causal concepts and causal analysis methods to solving AI problems. The purpose of this book is to fill the gap between the AI and modern causal analysis for further facilitating the AI revolution. This book is ideal for graduate students and researchers in AI, data science, causal inference, statistics, genomics, bioinformatics and precision medicine. Key Features: Cover three types of neural networks, formulate deep learning as an optimal control problem and use Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle for network training. Deep learning for nonlinear mediation and instrumental variable causal analysis. Construction of causal networks is formulated as a continuous optimization problem. Transformer and attention are used to encode-decode graphics. RL is used to infer large causal networks. Use VAE, GAN, neural differential equations, recurrent neural network (RNN) and RL to estimate counterfactual outcomes. AI-based methods for estimation of individualized treatment effect in the presence of network interference.

Elements of Causal Inference
Elements of Causal Inference

Author: Jonas Peters

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2017-11-29

Total Pages: 289

ISBN-13: 0262037319

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A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning. The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts.

Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference
Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference

Author: MOMIAO. XIONG

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2022-02-04

Total Pages: 424

ISBN-13: 9780367859404

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Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference address the recent development of relationships between artificial intelligence (AI) and causal inference. Despite significant progress in AI, a great challenge in AI development we are still facing is to understand mechanism underlying intelligence, including reasoning, planning and imagination. Understanding, transfer and generalization are major principles that give rise intelligence. One of a key component for understanding is causal inference. Causal inference includes intervention, domain shift learning, temporal structure and counterfactual thinking as major concepts to understand causation and reasoning. Unfortunately, these essential components of the causality are often overlooked by machine learning, which leads to some failure of the deep learning. AI and causal inference involve (1) using AI techniques as major tools for causal analysis and (2) applying the causal concepts and causal analysis methods to solving AI problems. The purpose of this book is to fill the gap between the AI and modern causal analysis for further facilitating the AI revolution. This book is ideal for graduate students and researchers in AI, data science, causal inference, statistics, genomics, bioinformatics and precision medicine. Key Features: Cover three types of neural networks, formulate deep learning as an optimal control problem and use Pontryagin's Maximum Principle for network training. Deep learning for nonlinear mediation and instrumental variable causal analysis. Construction of causal networks is formulated as a continuous optimization problem. Transformer and attention are used to encode-decode graphics. RL is used to infer large causal networks. Use VAE, GAN, neural differential equations, recurrent neural network (RNN) and RL to estimate counterfactual outcomes. AI-based methods for estimation of individualized treatment effect in the presence of network interference.

The Book of Why
The Book of Why

Author: Judea Pearl

Publisher: Basic Books

Published: 2018-05-15

Total Pages: 432

ISBN-13: 0465097618

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A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

An Introduction to Causal Inference
An Introduction to Causal Inference

Author: Judea Pearl

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781507894293

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This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called "causal effects" or "policy evaluation") (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of "regret," "attribution" or "causes of effects") and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation. -- p. 1.

Causality
Causality

Author: Judea Pearl

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2009-09-14

Total Pages: 487

ISBN-13: 052189560X

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Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artificial intelligence ...

The Economics of Artificial Intelligence
The Economics of Artificial Intelligence

Author: Ajay Agrawal

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2024-03-05

Total Pages: 172

ISBN-13: 0226833127

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A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.

Causal Inference
Causal Inference

Author: Miquel A. Hernan

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2019-07-07

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13: 9781420076165

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The application of causal inference methods is growing exponentially in fields that deal with observational data. Written by pioneers in the field, this practical book presents an authoritative yet accessible overview of the methods and applications of causal inference. With a wide range of detailed, worked examples using real epidemiologic data as well as software for replicating the analyses, the text provides a thorough introduction to the basics of the theory for non-time-varying treatments and the generalization to complex longitudinal data.

Cause Effect Pairs in Machine Learning
Cause Effect Pairs in Machine Learning

Author: Isabelle Guyon

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-10-22

Total Pages: 378

ISBN-13: 3030218104

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This book presents ground-breaking advances in the domain of causal structure learning. The problem of distinguishing cause from effect (“Does altitude cause a change in atmospheric pressure, or vice versa?”) is here cast as a binary classification problem, to be tackled by machine learning algorithms. Based on the results of the ChaLearn Cause-Effect Pairs Challenge, this book reveals that the joint distribution of two variables can be scrutinized by machine learning algorithms to reveal the possible existence of a “causal mechanism”, in the sense that the values of one variable may have been generated from the values of the other. This book provides both tutorial material on the state-of-the-art on cause-effect pairs and exposes the reader to more advanced material, with a collection of selected papers. Supplemental material includes videos, slides, and code which can be found on the workshop website. Discovering causal relationships from observational data will become increasingly important in data science with the increasing amount of available data, as a means of detecting potential triggers in epidemiology, social sciences, economy, biology, medicine, and other sciences.

Causal Inference in Statistics
Causal Inference in Statistics

Author: Judea Pearl

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-01-25

Total Pages: 162

ISBN-13: 1119186862

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CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.