Sixth in the annual series, this volume examines the major trends in armed conflicts in South Asia during 2011, efforts towards conflict management undertaken by the State and their effectiveness, as also the road ahead. While focusing on the burning issues within the region, the volume looks into two important aspects of the conflict situation: conflict alert and peace audit. In providing critical policy recommendations to the State, the former anticipates early warning regarding an impending conflict and its potential transformation. The latter assesses the status of ceasefires and peace processes adopted by the respective countries. The volume highlights the causes of armed conflicts in South Asia so as to facilitate concrete peace processes. In addition to essays addressing armed conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Myanmar, it includes a special section entitled 'Peace Audit'. This segment reviews and evaluates specific peace efforts undertaken in Jammu and Kashmir, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Northeast India, measures their successes and failures, and discusses the lessons that may be learnt from them. Further, it studies the nature of these peace processes, their effectiveness and the dangers of conflict relapse.
As in the cascading of water, violence and nonviolence can cascade down from commanding heights of power (as in waterfalls), up from powerless peripheries, and can undulate to spread horizontally (flowing from one space to another). As with containing water, conflict cannot be contained without asking crucial questions about which variables might cause it to cascade from the top-down, bottom up and from the middle-out. The book shows how violence cascades from state to state. Empirical research has shown that nations with a neighbor at war are more likely to have a civil war themselves (Sambanis 2001). More importantly in the analysis of this book, war cascades from hot spot to hot spot within and between states (Autesserre 2010, 2014). The key to understanding cascades of hot spots is in the interaction between local and macro cleavages and alliances (Kalyvas 2006). The analysis exposes the folly of asking single-level policy questions like do the benefits and costs of a regime change in Iraq justify an invasion? We must also ask what other violence might cascade from an invasion of Iraq? The cascades concept is widespread in the physical and biological sciences with cascades in geology, particle physics and the globalization of contagion. The past two decades has seen prominent and powerful applications of the cascades idea to the social sciences (Sunstein 1997; Gladwell 2000; Sikkink 2011). In his discussion of ethnic violence, James Rosenau (1990) stressed that the image of turbulence developed by mathematicians and physicists could provide an important basis for understanding the idea of bifurcation and related ideas of complexity, chaos, and turbulence in complex systems. He classified the bifurcated systems in contemporary world politics as the multicentric system and the statecentric system. Each of these affects the others in multiple ways, at multiple levels, and in ways that make events enormously hard to predict (Rosenau 1990, 2006). He replaced the idea of events with cascades to describe the event structures that 'gather momentum, stall, reverse course, and resume anew as their repercussions spread among whole systems and subsystems' (1990: 299). Through a detailed analysis of case studies in South Asia, that built on John Braithwaite's twenty-five year project Peacebuilding Compared, and coding of conflicts in different parts of the globe, we expand Rosenau's concept of global turbulence and images of cascades. In the cascades of violence in South Asia, we demonstrate how micro-events such as localized riots, land-grabbing, pervasive militarization and attempts to assassinate political leaders are linked to large scale macro-events of global politics. We argue in order to prevent future conflicts there is a need to understand the relationships between history, structures and agency; interest, values and politics; global and local factors and alliances.
Seventh in the annual series, this volume focuses on civil society movements in South Asia, besides covering armed conflicts in the region in 2012. The first section addresses the conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Myanmar, and the situation in Northeast India and Naxalite violence; the second assesses peace audits in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Jammu and Kashmir, along with the peace process in Nagaland.
This book uses empirical evidence from various case studies to examine the relationship between territorial and regional autonomy, the nation-state and ethnic conflict resolution in South and South-East Asia. The concept of territorial or regional autonomy holds centre stage in the literature on ethnic conflict settlement because it is supposed to be able to reconcile two paradoxical objectives: the preservation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state, and the satisfaction of ethnic minorities’ right to national self-determination. Critics argue, however, that autonomy may not be the panacea for ethnic conflict in all cases. The contributing authors begin with the concept of territorial or regional autonomy and subject it to a rigorous empirical analysis, which provides reliable evidence regarding the suitability of the autonomy solution to intractable ethnic conflicts. Drawing upon case studies from Kashmir, Assam, Sri Lanka, Aceh, Mindanao and Southern Thailand, this edited volume argues that autonomy arrangements may at best work to resolve only a handful of separatist ethnic conflicts in South and South-East Asia. This book will be of much interest to students of South and South-East Asia, Asian security, ethnic conflict, peace studies and IR in general.
South Asia has been a region which has witnessed five full-scale interstate conflicts, where adversaries are major Asian powers armed with nuclear weapons, and where no country has been free from insurgencies and separatist movements. Containing eight essays by Indian and European experts, this volume examines the genesis, nature and features of the European Union’s policy of conflict resolution. It examines the causes, consequences and prospects of conflict in South Asia. It evaluates the role of the European Union in conflict resolution in Afghanistan, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. It also assesses Norway’s role in conflict resolution in Mynamar. The study will be of interest to all those engaged in the fields of political science, international relations, conflict studies, and Indian and South Asian politics and foreign policy.
This monograph analyses the rhythms of war and the geopolitical significance of Afghanistan with a focus on the interrelated concepts of weak/rentier state, great power rivalry, and counter-insurgency. It analyses why the Mughals, the British, the Soviets, and the Americans won the conventional wars in Afghanistan but were defeated in the unconventional ones. It takes a comprehensive view of the history of the region and provides a political and military narrative of conventional and unconventional war in Afghanistan during the last five centuries. It, therefore, covers wide ranging aspects such as empire building and military operations in Afghanistan in the pre-modern period, regular and irregular warfare in Afghanistan during the British era, the Russian intervention and the emergence of the fragile 'rentier state' after the world war, and the American and NATO activities and the nature of on-going war in light of the recent debates on the changing character of war in the twenty-first century. With a special emphasis on ecology, terrain, and logistics, this book explores the trajectory of state building and contextualizes the Afghan 'problem' as part of the wider struggle among the great powers for controlling the 'heart' of Eurasia.
Religious Movements, Militancy, and Conflict in South Asia we draws on recent research on religion and conflict to offer a broad overview of the different roles religion has played in governance, politics, and conflicts in South Asia. The authors argue that it is important that policy officials pay specific attention to the role of religion in conflict settings. It is not safe to assume that religiously themed rhetoric represents the true motives of conflict actors or the true beliefs of local communities. But nor is it safe to assume that religion, and especially religious identity, does not contribute to conflict--or that it could not contribute to peace. Religion needs to be understood in context.
