Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis
Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2007-12-29

Total Pages: 547

ISBN-13: 0387235507

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The application areas of uncertainty are numerous and diverse, including all fields of engineering, computer science, systems control and finance. Determining appropriate ways and methods of dealing with uncertainty has been a constant challenge. The theme for this book is better understanding and the application of uncertainty theories. This book, with invited chapters, deals with the uncertainty phenomena in diverse fields. The book is an outgrowth of the Fourth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), which was held at the center of Adult Education, College Park, Maryland, in September 2003. All of the chapters have been carefully edited, following a review process in which the editorial committee scrutinized each chapter. The contents of the book are reported in twenty-three chapters, covering more than . . ... pages. This book is divided into six main sections. Part I (Chapters 1-4) presents the philosophical and theoretical foundation of uncertainty, new computational directions in neural networks, and some theoretical foundation of fuzzy systems. Part I1 (Chapters 5-8) reports on biomedical and chemical engineering applications. The sections looks at noise reduction techniques using hidden Markov models, evaluation of biomedical signals using neural networks, and changes in medical image detection using Markov Random Field and Mean Field theory. One of the chapters reports on optimization in chemical engineering processes.

Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach
Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach

Author: Bilal Ayyub

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 1997-10-31

Total Pages: 414

ISBN-13: 9780792380306

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Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.

Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering
Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering

Author: Bilal M. Ayyub

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 1997-12-29

Total Pages: 534

ISBN-13: 9780849331084

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With the expansion of new technologies, materials, and the design of complex systems, the expectations of society upon engineers are becoming larger than ever. Engineers make critical decisions with potentially high adverse consequences. The current political, societal, and financial climate requires engineers to formally consider the factors of uncertainty (e.g., floods, earthquakes, winds, environmental risks) in their decisions at all levels. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include Neural networks Genetic algorithms Numerical modeling Fuzzy sets and operations Reliability and risk analysis Systems control Uncertainty in probability estimates This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general scientists, and students.

Uncertainty Modelling in Data Science
Uncertainty Modelling in Data Science

Author: Sébastien Destercke

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-07-24

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13: 3319975471

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This book features 29 peer-reviewed papers presented at the 9th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2018), which was held in conjunction with the 5th International Conference on Belief Functions (BELIEF 2018) in Compiègne, France on September 17–21, 2018. It includes foundational, methodological and applied contributions on topics as varied as imprecise data handling, linguistic summaries, model coherence, imprecise Markov chains, and robust optimisation. These proceedings were produced using EasyChair. Over recent decades, interest in extensions and alternatives to probability and statistics has increased significantly in diverse areas, including decision-making, data mining and machine learning, and optimisation. This interest stems from the need to enrich existing models, in order to include different facets of uncertainty, like ignorance, vagueness, randomness, conflict or imprecision. Frameworks such as rough sets, fuzzy sets, fuzzy random variables, random sets, belief functions, possibility theory, imprecise probabilities, lower previsions, and desirable gambles all share this goal, but have emerged from different needs. The advances, results and tools presented in this book are important in the ubiquitous and fast-growing fields of data science, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Indeed, an important aspect of some of the learned predictive models is the trust placed in them. Modelling the uncertainty associated with the data and the models carefully and with principled methods is one of the means of increasing this trust, as the model will then be able to distinguish between reliable and less reliable predictions. In addition, extensions such as fuzzy sets can be explicitly designed to provide interpretable predictive models, facilitating user interaction and increasing trust.

Uncertainty Modeling in Finite Element, Fatigue and Stability of Systems
Uncertainty Modeling in Finite Element, Fatigue and Stability of Systems

Author: Achintya Haldar

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 437

ISBN-13: 9810231288

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The functionality of modern structural, mechanical and electrical or electronic systems depends on their ability to perform under uncertain conditions. Consideration of uncertainties and their effect on system behavior is an essential and integral part of defining systems. In eleven chapters, leading experts present an overview of the current state of uncertainty modeling, analysis and design of large systems in four major areas: finite and boundary element methods (common structural analysis techniques), fatigue, stability analysis, and fault-tolerant systems. The content of this book is unique; it describes exciting research developments and challenges in emerging areas, and provide a sophisticated toolbox for tackling uncertainty modeling in real systems.

Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology
Scaling and Uncertainty Analysis in Ecology

Author: Jianguo Wu

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-07-02

Total Pages: 354

ISBN-13: 1402046634

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This is the first book of its kind – explicitly considering uncertainty and error analysis as an integral part of scaling. The book draws together a series of important case studies to provide a comprehensive review and synthesis of the most recent concepts, theories and methods in scaling and uncertainty analysis. It includes case studies illustrating how scaling and uncertainty analysis are being conducted in ecology and environmental science.

Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management

Author: Keith J Beven

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2014-01-13

Total Pages: 685

ISBN-13: 1783263121

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This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.

Modeling Uncertainty
Modeling Uncertainty

Author: Moshe Dror

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-03-24

Total Pages: 770

ISBN-13: 9781475783698

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Modeling Uncertainty: An Examination of Stochastic Theory, Methods, and Applications, is a volume undertaken by the friends and colleagues of Sid Yakowitz in his honor. Fifty internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modeling uncertainty to this volume. Each of these papers was carefully reviewed and in the majority of cases the original submission was revised before being accepted for publication in the book. The papers cover a great variety of topics in probability, statistics, economics, stochastic optimization, control theory, regression analysis, simulation, stochastic programming, Markov decision process, application in the HIV context, and others. There are papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications. A number of papers survey the work in a particular area and in a few papers the authors present their personal view of a topic. It is a book with a considerable number of expository articles, which are accessible to a nonexpert - a graduate student in mathematics, statistics, engineering, and economics departments, or just anyone with some mathematical background who is interested in a preliminary exposition of a particular topic. Many of the papers present the state of the art of a specific area or represent original contributions which advance the present state of knowledge. In sum, it is a book of considerable interest to a broad range of academic researchers and students of stochastic systems.

Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics
Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics

Author: Y. Ben-Haim

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2013-10-22

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 1483290972

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Recognition of the need to introduce the ideas of uncertainty in a wide variety of scientific fields today reflects in part some of the profound changes in science and engineering over the last decades. Nobody questions the ever-present need for a solid foundation in applied mechanics. Neither does anyone question nowadays the fundamental necessity to recognize that uncertainty exists, to learn to evaluate it rationally, and to incorporate it into design.This volume provides a timely and stimulating overview of the analysis of uncertainty in applied mechanics. It is not just one more rendition of the traditional treatment of the subject, nor is it intended to supplement existing structural engineering books. Its aim is to fill a gap in the existing professional literature by concentrating on the non-probabilistic model of uncertainty. It provides an alternative avenue for the analysis of uncertainty when only a limited amount of information is available. The first chapter briefly reviews probabilistic methods and discusses the sensitivity of the probability of failure to uncertain knowledge of the system. Chapter two discusses the mathematical background of convex modelling. In the remainder of the book, convex modelling is applied to various linear and nonlinear problems. Uncertain phenomena are represented throughout the book by convex sets, and this approach is referred to as convex modelling.This book is intended to inspire researchers in their goal towards further growth and development in this field.