Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems
Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems

Author: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-01-24

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 9781557758286

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Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.

Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises

Author: Paolo Manasse

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-11-01

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1451875258

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We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.

Assessing Financial Vulnerability
Assessing Financial Vulnerability

Author: Morris Goldstein

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 166

ISBN-13: 9780881322378

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This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.

Globalization and the International Financial System
Globalization and the International Financial System

Author: Peter Isard

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 388

ISBN-13: 9780521605076

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Economic globalization has given rise to frequent and severe financial crises in emerging market economies. Other countries are also unsuccessful in their efforts to generate economic growth and reduce poverty. This book provides perspectives on various aspects of the international financial system that contribute to financial crises and growth failures, and discusses the remedies that economists have proposed for addressing the underlying problems. It also sheds light on a central feature of the international financial system that remains mysterious to many economists and most non-economists: the activities of the International Monetary Fund and the factors that influence its effectiveness. Dr Isard offers policy perspectives on what countries can do to reduce their vulnerabilities to financial crises and growth failures, and a number of general directions for systemic reform. The breadth of the agenda provides grounds for optimism that the international financial system can be strengthened considerably without revolutionary change.

Assessing External Sustainability in India
Assessing External Sustainability in India

Author: Mr.Tim Callen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-12-01

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1451859171

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This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India’s external imbalances and analyzes the optimality of its capital flows. We use three approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls; a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises; and scenarios that examine the path of the current account consistent with the stabilization of India’s external liability-to-GDP ratio. The results indicate that India’s intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.

Capital Flows Without Crisis?
Capital Flows Without Crisis?

Author: Dipak Dasgupta

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-01-11

Total Pages: 386

ISBN-13: 1135134812

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The last decade has seen a massive increase in international capital flows to emerging markets. This development has offered opportunities to those countries that have opened themselves up to overseas capital, but it has also created risks. In this volume, a team of policymakers and academics from 14 different countries, as well as representatives of the international financial institutions primarily responsible for responding to the crises, examine the challenges and options facing policymakers today. The book includes both detailed analysis of individual economies from around the world and in-depth analysis of the broad systemic issues of why crises occur and how we can prevent them. By looking at economies from many different parts of the world, the book provides a broad and comprehensive look at the similarities and differences in recent financial crises.

Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets
Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets

Author: Morris Goldstein

Publisher: Columbia University Press

Published: 2004-04-25

Total Pages: 181

ISBN-13: 0881324574

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In most of the currency crises of the 1990s, the largest output falls have occurred in those emerging economies with large currency mismatches, a phenomenon that occurs when assets and liabilities are denominated in different currencies such that net worth is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. Currency mismatching makes crisis management much more difficult since it constrains the willingness of the monetary authority to reduce interest rates in a recession (for fear of initiating a large fall in the currency that would bring with it large-scale insolvencies). The mismatching also produces a "fear of floating" on the part of emerging economies, sometimes inducing them to make currency-regime choices that are not in their own long-term interest. Authors Morris Goldstein and Philip Turner summarize what is known about the origins of currency mismatching in emerging economies, discuss how best to define and measure currency mismatching, and review policy options for reducing the size of the problem.

Handbook of Monetary Economics vols 3A+3B Set
Handbook of Monetary Economics vols 3A+3B Set

Author: Benjamin M. Friedman

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2010-11-10

Total Pages: 1729

ISBN-13: 0444534717

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How have monetary policies matured during the last decade? The recent downturn in economies worldwide have put monetary policies in a new spotlight. In addition to their investigations of new tools, models, and assumptions, they look carefully at recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. They also reexamine standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and other fundamentals. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. - Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis - Explores the policies and practices used in formulating and transmitting monetary policies - Questions fiscal-monetary connnections and encourages new thinking about the business cycle itself - Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years

Handbook of Monetary Economics
Handbook of Monetary Economics

Author: Benjamin M. Friedman

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2010-12-08

Total Pages: 970

ISBN-13: 0444534555

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What are the goals of monetary policy and how are they transmitted? Top scholars summarize recent evidence on the roles of money in the economy, the effects of information, and the growing importance of nonbank financial institutions. Their investigations lead to questions about standard presumptions about the rationality of asset markets and renewed interest in fiscal-monetary connections. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. - Presents extensive coverage of monetary policy theories with an eye toward questions raised by the recent financial crisis - Explores the ingredients, properties, and implications of models that inform monetary policy - Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-08-29

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 1589064488

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This paper examines contractionary currency crashes in developing countries. It explores the causes of India’s productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. The paper finds evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that, unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was pro-business rather than pro-market in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its income possibility frontier.