Anticipating a Nuclear Iran
Anticipating a Nuclear Iran

Author: Jacquelyn K. Davis

Publisher: Columbia University Press

Published: 2013-12-17

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 0231535945

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This volume is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons, and Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. develop alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. Through three scenario models, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post–Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post–Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.

Anticipating a Nuclear Iran
Anticipating a Nuclear Iran

Author: Jacquelyn K. Davis

Publisher: Columbia University Press

Published: 2013-12-31

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13: 0231166222

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This volume assumes the worst: a defensive, aggressive Iran already possesses a nuclear arsenal. How should the United States handle this threat, and can it deter the use of such weapons? Through three scenario models, this study explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post–Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran’s military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran’s ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post–Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.

Containing Iran
Containing Iran

Author: Robert J. Reardon

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2012-09-27

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 0833076353

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Iran's nuclear program is one of this century's principal foreign policy challenges. Despite U.S., Israeli, and allied efforts, Iran has an extensive enrichment program and likely has the technical capacity to produce at least one nuclear bomb if it so chose. This study assesses U.S. policy options, identifies a way forward, and considers how the United States might best mitigate the negative international effects of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Iran's Nuclear Program and International Law
Iran's Nuclear Program and International Law

Author: Daniel Joyner

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 281

ISBN-13: 0190635711

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book provides an international legal analysis of the most important questions regarding Iran's nuclear program since 2002. Setting these legal questions in their historical and diplomatic context, this book aims to clarify how the relevant sources of international law - including primarily the 1968 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and IAEA treaty law - should be properly applied in the context of the Iran case. It provides an instructional case study of the application of these sources of international law, the lessons which can be applied to inform both the on-going legal and diplomatic dynamics surrounding the Iran nuclear dispute itself, as well as similar future cases. Some questions raised regard the watershed diplomatic accord reached between Iran and Western states in July, 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action. The answers will be of interests to diplomats and academics, as well as to anyone who is interested in understanding international law's application to this sensitive dispute in international relations.

Iran Nuclear Negotiations
Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Author: Nader Entessar

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2015-10-08

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 1442242353

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In November 2013, a historic agreement on Iran’s nuclear program was reached between Iran and the world powers, raising the prospects for a long-term agreement that would end the Iran nuclear crisis and set the stage for normal relations between Iran and the West. This book seeks to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of this agreement and the protracted process that preceded it. It examines in details the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the world powers, focusing on the origins and evolution of the Iran nuclear crisis, the unilateral and the multilateral sanctions. It also looks at the relationship between nuclear and various non-nuclear regional issues, as well as the long-term implications for the U.S.-Iran relations.

Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible
Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible

Author: Georgie Anne Geyer

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-09-04

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 1351497103

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In the 1980s, most Americans scoffed at the idea that the Communist empire could collapse - but Georgie Anne Geyer was already outlining that probability. In the 1990s, the world was stunned by wars that raged across post-Yugoslavia and their viciousness - but Geyer on a trip to Belgrade in 1989, interviewed top officials and anticipated the conflicts. When 9/11 occurred, she used common sense and said, 'This was inevitable - the terrorists had already attacked the World Trade Center in 1993 and criminals always return to the scene of the crime.'Geyer argues that while the United States was being praised everywhere during this era of 'indispensable power' as the 'greatest power the world has known,' it actually had started on the road to decline. It had won the Cold War, but had immediately embarked upon more Vietnam-like small wars of tremendous cost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Across the board, it was no longer paying its way, while its domestic culture was being vulgarized at every turn.This book explains how, when, and where these declines happened. Geyer studies the history of nations and of peoples, observes human nature, particularly as influenced by religion and ideology; and is a close analyst of the acts of men and women when they perceive they have been humiliated by others or by history. She warns Americans and journalists that we must anticipate the changes in the world before they are upon us and that we must employ predictions to strengthen our nation and its principles.

Role Theory and Role Conflict in U.S.-Iran Relations
Role Theory and Role Conflict in U.S.-Iran Relations

Author: Akan Malici

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

Published: 2016-10-04

Total Pages: 269

ISBN-13: 1315525925

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

U.S.-Iran relations continue to be an international security problem in the Middle East. These two countries could have been friends, but instead they have become enemies. Stating this thesis raises the following questions: Why are the United States and Iran enemies? How and when did this relationship come to be? When the relationship began to deteriorate, could it have been reversed? What lessons can be learned from an analysis of past U.S.-Iranian relations and what are the implications for their present and future relations? Akan Malici and Stephen G. Walker argue that the dynamics of U.S.-Iran relations are based on role conflicts. Iran has long desired to enact roles of active independence and national sovereignty in world politics. However, it continued to be cast by others into client or rebel roles of national inferiority. In this book the authors examine these role conflicts during three crucial episodes in U.S.-Iran relations: the oil nationalization crisis and the ensuing clandestine coup aided by the CIA to overthrow the Iranian regime in 1950 to 1953; the Iranian revolution followed by the hostage crisis in 1979 to 1981; the reformist years pre- and post- 9/11 under Mohammad Khatami from 1997 to 2002. Their application of role theory is theoretically and methodologically progressive and innovative in illuminating aspects of U.S.-Iran relations. It allows for a better understanding of the past, navigating the present, and anticipating the future in order to avoid foreign policy mistakes. Role Theory and Role Conflict in U.S.-Iran Relations is a useful resource for international relations and foreign policy scholars who want to learn more about progress in international relations theory and U.S. relations with Iran.

Iran Nuclear Accord and the Remaking of the Middle East
Iran Nuclear Accord and the Remaking of the Middle East

Author: Nader Entessar

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2017-12-20

Total Pages: 299

ISBN-13: 1442271280

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Entessar & Afrasiabi’s Iran Nuclear Negotiations (Rowman & Littlefied, October 2015) offered a thorough analysis of the negotiation process between Iran and the 5+1 great powers about its nuclear program. This book essentially builds upon it, focusing this time on the final nuclear agreement, the ensuing debates around it, and its global and regional ramifications especially in the Middle East. The first section analyzes the agreement through the prism of international relations theories, using a constructivist-critical theory approach. This is followed by an overview of the intense debates in Iran, the West, and other parts of the world, on the nuclear agreement and its various pros and cons, not to mention the connected, yet separate Iran-IAEA agreement. The second section covers Iran’s foreign policy and its various priorities, looking in particular at the impact of the nuclear deal on the country’s external relations and orientations, contextualized in terms of pre-existing issues and concerns and the profound influence of the nuclear agreement on the perceptions of Iranian power in the region and beyond. Iran’s relations with its Arab, Turkish, Russian, and other neighbors are discussed, focusing on both the direct and indirect impact of the nuclear agreement on these relations, especially the paradoxical implications of the nuclear deal with respect to the non-nuclear crises in the Middle East, such as the Syria-Iraq crisis, and the re-alignments that have put Iran at the crossroads of East and West. Other issues covered include energy security, regional economic cooperation, the endemic sectarianism highlighted by Iran-Saudi competition, and the deadlock on the Middle East peace process. The third section then examines the issue of a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone and the likely consequences of the Iran nuclear deal on this prospect, which, in turn, raises the issue of regional proliferation and counterproliferation. The last section explores some possible various scenarios and the challenges of implementation as a relatively long-term agreement, providing specific policy recommendations for the regional actors and the external powers that are stakeholders in the volatile Middle East.

A History of Hezbollah Activities in the Arabian Gulf Region
A History of Hezbollah Activities in the Arabian Gulf Region

Author: Matthew Levitt

Publisher: Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research

Published: 2015-11-10

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 9948231104

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This study provides the reader with an insight into the extent to which Hezbollah has circumvented regional and international efforts geared towards combating the organization’s clandestine activities. Ever since Hezbollah’s formation in the early-1980s and right up until the present day, the organization’s activities have yielded significant strategic gains across the Arabian Gulf region. Research findings presented within this paper demonstrate how Hezbollah clearly demands respect among military strategists, policy and decision makers alike, repeatedly revealing itself as an exemplary Iranian proxy capable of carrying out Iran’s bidding whilst avoiding obvious traces of Iranian interference. As highlighted throughout this research paper, Hezbollah has learnt valuable strategic lessons from a number of confrontations it has entered into with its adversaries. For example, the group is seemingly aware of the strategic benefits available to it should it decide to prey upon Western nation-states’ reluctance to incur substantial losses to their respective armed forces. Other examples include the understanding that the kidnapping of political and military opponents has potential to secure the successful exchange of detainees. Following on from the initial US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Hezbollah’s stock has clearly continued to soar during the course of the Iraq War. Hezbollah’s battle-hardened approach to countering better equipped and better manned armed forces is widely understood. Less talked about perhaps, but clearly equally important as argued in this study, are other skills which Iran has come to rely on, such as the group’s linguistic skills and consequent ability to transfer its military expertise to other insurgent groups keen to mimic Hezbollah’s internal proficiency. Hezbollah’s direct involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war partly explains how the regime of Bashar Al-Assad has stemmed the tide of resistance and begun to gain the upper hand. In summary, as events in Syria illustrate, Hezbollah continues to exert a considerable influence over regional developments, and consequently the regional balance of power.