Drawing on recent "event history" analytical methods from biostatistics, engineering, and sociology, this clear and comprehensive monograph explains how longitudinal data can be used to study the causes of deaths, crimes, wars, and many other human events. Allison shows why ordinary multiple regression is not suited to analyze event history data, and demonstrates how innovative regression - like methods can overcome this problem. He then discusses the particular new methods that social scientists should find useful.
Festival and Events Management: an international perspective is a unique text looking at the central role of events management in the cultural, tourism and arts industries. With international contributions from industry and academia, the text looks at the following: * Events & cultural environments * Managing the arts & leisure experience * Marketing, policies and strategies of art and leisure management Chapters include exercises, and additional teaching materials and solutions to questions are provided as part of an accompanying online resource.
Contemporary deep-reaching changes – whether in financial or real economy, in Europe’s political conditions, in the context of scientific theories, in the field of global (environmental) security, or gender relations – are also a challenge to philosophy. The volume comprises cutting-edge scholarly articles from renowned philosophers with various geographical backgrounds and from different philosophical strands. Next to investigating general questions as to the relation of philosophy and critique (What is philosophical critique and which philosophical concepts of critique are of importance today? Where do we need it most? Where are its limits?), the articles focus on issues like theories of democracy and modes of election; the roles of emotions in the political realm; challenges from a widespread discontent in society to politics and science; changes to social identities and different theoretical approaches to social identity formation. The book is indispensable for all who are interested in what contemporary philosophy has to say on crucial issues of our time.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Kenneth Waltz’s 1979 Theory of International Politics is credited with bringing about a “scientific revolution” in the study of international relations – bringing the field into a new era of systematic study. The book is also a lesson in reasoning carefully and critically. Good reasoning is exemplified by arguments that move systematically, through carefully organised stages, taking into account opposing stances and ideas as they move towards a logical conclusion. Theory of International Politics might be a textbook example of how to go about structuring an argument in this way to produce a watertight case for a particular point of view. Waltz’s book begins by testing and critiquing earlier theories of international relations, showing their strengths and weaknesses, before moving on to argue for his own stance – what has since become known as “neorealism”. His aim was “to construct a theory of international politics that remedies the defects of present theories.” And this is precisely what he did; by showing the shortcomings of the prevalent theories of international relations, Waltz was then able to import insights from sociology to create a more comprehensive and realistic theory that took full account of the strengths of old schemas while also remedying their weaknesses – reasoning out a new theory in the process.
Published each year since 1959, The Military Balance is an indispensable reference to the capabilities of armed forces across the globe. It is used by academia, the media, armed forces, the private sector and government. It is an open-source assessment of the military forces and equipment inventories of 171 countries, with accompanying defence economics and procurement data. Alongside detailed country data, The Military Balance assesses important defence issues, by region, as well as key global trends, such as in defence technology and equipment modernisation. This analysis is accompanied by full-colour graphics, including maps and illustrations. With extensive explanatory notes and reference information, The Military Balance is as straightforward to use as it is extensive. The 2022 edition is accompanied by a fullcolour wall chart illustrating security dynamics in the Arctic.
Through a broad-reaching collection of readings, this text illustrates the second generation scholarship in foreign policy analysis. It adopts a quantitative and positivist approach, using real-world examples and theoretical discussions to help bridge the theory and practice of foreign policy.
The book aims to improve our understanding of what it means to create high-quality analytical products by focusing on the concept of relevance for policy-makers. Despite variations in context, strategic analysts in different sectors (in both intelligence and non-intelligence government organizations, private consultancies, think tanks, and academia) face similar problems in identifying the needs of their clients and setting up organizations with the mandates, structures, and personnel necessary to address those needs. The objective is therefore to identify these common challenges, compare solutions, and share lessons learned. To do so, broader thematic reflections on strategic analysis are combined with innovative case studies of how organizations have worked to successfully produce relevant analysis. The first section explores challenges to achieving relevance at the level of the analyst, while the remainder of the book analyses cases at the level of organizations.
Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis presents the definitive treatment to integrate theories of foreign policy analysis and international relations—addressing the agent-centered, micro-political study of decisions by leaders and the structure-oriented macro political study of state interactions in an international system.
