An Evaluation of Strategies for Hedging Feeder Cattle in the Pacific Northwest
An Evaluation of Strategies for Hedging Feeder Cattle in the Pacific Northwest

Author: Andrew Leo Gatti

Publisher:

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 248

ISBN-13:

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Over the past decade, feeder cattle backgrounders in the Pacific Northwest have been subject to sharp price fluctuations for their output. The result has been variable profits and losses. This situation creates a need for management and marketing techniques which can provide Pacific Northwest cattle ranchers with protection against price risks while enhancing the profitability of their operations. Recent economic literature has shown hedging with futures contracts to be an effective tool for mitigating risk and/or increasing the net revenues of cattle producers in a number of regions of the United States. The objective of this research was to determine whether hedging with futures contracts could have increased the profitability of Pacific Northwest feeder cattle production while decreasing the effects of price volatiliy. To realize this objective, the economic performance of alternative hedging strategies were evaluated for several methods of feeder cattle backgrounding indigenous to the Pacific Northwest region. Four hedging strategies - routine, moving average, profit objective, and triangular probability distribution - were evaluated for hedging the output of four simulated production systems. The mean and standard deviation of annual net returns were computed for each hedging strategy to serve as measures of profitability and risk, respectively. The results of not hedging were also obtained to provide a basis for comparing alternative hedging programs. Sample t and F tests were conducted to determine whether there were statistically significant differences between the means and standard deviations of the unhedged and hedged positions. Dominant hedging strategies were then identified for each production system. Based on the results of the mean-variance analysis, it appears that the use of selective futures market hedging strategies would have provided greater and more stable levels of profit compared to the net incomes obtained without hedging. Sample t and F tests, using 80 and 90 percent levels of significance respectively, showed that hedging could have significantly decreased the variability of the producer's flow of income without significantly changing the operation's average profitability. Moving average, profit objective, and triangular probability distribution strategies were dominant, increased average profitability, and significantly lowered risk for at least one production system each. Overall, moving average strategies generated the highest mean profits with the greatest risk. Profit objective strategies generally resulted in lower mean profit than moving average strategies but with less risk. The risks and returns from hedging with triangular probability distribution strategies were usually between the moving average and profit objective procedures. Strategies which performed well in this study should also perform well in the future if conditions in the feeder cattle markets do not vary substantially from those of the previous decade. Thus, hedging with futures market contracts may provide the Pacific Northwest feeder cattle producers with protection against price risk and enhanced profitability.

An Econometric Model of Pacific Northwest Feeder Cattle Basis
An Econometric Model of Pacific Northwest Feeder Cattle Basis

Author: Cynthia Ann Vanderpool

Publisher:

Published: 1981

Total Pages: 200

ISBN-13:

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Fluctuating feeder cattle prices have a direct affect on the revenue variability of feeder cattle producers. Hedging in the commodity futures market is a marketing strategy which can, if properly used, reduce the financial risk of feeder cattle producers. If the closing basis value is known when a hedge is placed, a price can be established for the feeder cattle in advance. This fact prompted research in determining the factors which affect nearby feeder cattle basis in the Pacific Northwest. This research is an attempt to identify factors which influence the feeder cattle basis through their influence on the prices which compose the basis -i.e., the cash and futures prices. The feeder cattle cash price has been established as a function of the factors affecting the profit of feedlot operations. Controversy exists on the factors which influence the futures price of livestock products; however, the use of technical indicators is well established in the literature. For the purposes of this research feeder cattle basis is developed as a function of the profit factors and a lag-trend indicator along with dummy variables which influence feeder cattle futures contracts over time. The profit factors include expected slaughter price, corn price, and interest rate values. These profit factors are expected to influence the cash price of feeder cattle. The lag-trend indicator is a calculated trend of the basis over the past two time periods and is expected to represent the analysis made by traders in both the futures and cash markets of past events or prices. This analysis by traders in the futures market will be similar to their use of technical indicators. In specifying the model, two methods of analyzing the expected affects of the profit factors on the basis are acknowledged. In this research, the profit factors are assumed to influence only the cash price. Therefore, the effect of the factors on basis is hypothesized by making assumptions about the price movement of the feeder cattle futures price. The analyses produce various hypotheses about the expected effects of the profit factors on basis. The empirical results produce evidence that the estimated equations explain a good proportion of the Pacific Northwest basis of feeder cattle for light and heavy weight categories. After a close analysis of the profit factors, corn price is concluded to have a positive influence on 500-600 pound feeder cattle basis and a negative influence on 700-800 pound feeder cattle basis. However, due to the inability of the methods to hypothesize the effect of slaughter price on basis and/or to hypothesize, with consistency, the correct signs of the estimated interest rate coefficient, conclusions are not made about their influences on the basis. Feeder cattle producers can apply the information produced in this research in making hedging decisions. However, a thorough knowledge and analysis of hedging theory and market conditions should be undertaken first. Since a predicted closing basis is needed by feeder cattle producers to establish a "locked-in" cash price, further research in developing a forecasting model of feeder cattle basis is warranted.