The Economic Section 1939-1961
The Economic Section 1939-1961

Author: Alec Cairncross

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2022-01-26

Total Pages: 235

ISBN-13: 100051224X

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First published in 1989, The Economic Section 1939-1961 is a rare study of economic policymaking as seen from the inside. The Economic Section, formed in 1939-1940, was the first group of professional economists to operate full-time at the centre of government in the United Kingdom and its views on many issues of economic policy were frequently decisive. In this volume, two former members of the Section draw on their memories and on the public records to trace the history of the Section from the early days of the war to the end of the 1950s. Alec Cairncross and Nita Watts discuss the advice offered by the Section, the controversies that followed advisers, and how Ministers responded. They present a picture of the day-to-day working of the Section, but inevitably focus on the more dramatic episodes, when major issues of policy were in dispute or important new issues were posed. Separate chapters are devoted to the Section’s role in four main areas: fiscal, monetary, incomes and external economic policy. In illuminating influence on policy exercised by officials and the place of expert advice in economic management, this work will appeal to a wide range of readers. It offers the student of economics or politics a picture of what, in practice, goes to the making of economic policy.

The Great Inflation
The Great Inflation

Author: Michael D. Bordo

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-06-28

Total Pages: 545

ISBN-13: 0226066959

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Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Fortune Tellers
Fortune Tellers

Author: Walter A Friedman

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2013-12-01

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 0691159114

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A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.

Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art
Economic Forecasting: The State of the Art

Author: Elia Xacapyr

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2016-09-16

Total Pages: 200

ISBN-13: 1315480670

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An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott

Publisher: Newnes

Published: 2013-08-23

Total Pages: 719

ISBN-13: 0444536841

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The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

How the Internet Became Commercial
How the Internet Became Commercial

Author: Shane Greenstein

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2015-10-20

Total Pages: 483

ISBN-13: 1400874297

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In less than a decade, the Internet went from being a series of loosely connected networks used by universities and the military to the powerful commercial engine it is today. This book describes how many of the key innovations that made this possible came from entrepreneurs and iconoclasts who were outside the mainstream—and how the commercialization of the Internet was by no means a foregone conclusion at its outset. Shane Greenstein traces the evolution of the Internet from government ownership to privatization to the commercial Internet we know today. This is a story of innovation from the edges. Greenstein shows how mainstream service providers that had traditionally been leaders in the old-market economy became threatened by innovations from industry outsiders who saw economic opportunities where others didn't—and how these mainstream firms had no choice but to innovate themselves. New models were tried: some succeeded, some failed. Commercial markets turned innovations into valuable products and services as the Internet evolved in those markets. New business processes had to be created from scratch as a network originally intended for research and military defense had to deal with network interconnectivity, the needs of commercial users, and a host of challenges with implementing innovative new services. How the Internet Became Commercial demonstrates how, without any central authority, a unique and vibrant interplay between government and private industry transformed the Internet.

Prosperity in The Age of Decline
Prosperity in The Age of Decline

Author: Brian Beaulieu

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-06-30

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1118809890

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A guide for protecting your wealth in an age of turbulent business cycles In Prosperity in the Age of Decline, Brian and Alan Beaulieu—the CEO and President of the Institute for Trend Research® (ITR)—offer an informed, meticulously-researched look at the future and the coming Great Depression. Drawing on ITR's 94.7% forecast accuracy rate, the book outlines specific, actionable strategies for capitalizing on cyclical opportunities and dodging economic danger. In this important resource, the authors reveal what it will take for individual investors and business leaders to prosper as the economy heats up prior to the predicted downturn, preserve wealth in the upcoming Great Depression, and profit on the way out of the depression. The imbalances and maladjustments have a while to play out and the authors pinpoint the investment opportunities to be had in the countdown period. The Beaulieu's examine the major economic trends at play, such as low interest rates, burgeoning government debt, and an aging population. They discuss which trends will last and what investors should do with this knowledge in order to thrive. The book also reviews the group of leading economic indicators that most consistently achieve reliable results for predicting where the economy is headed. Designed as a useful tool for investors, the book includes a working list of key trends, describes the upside potential of each trend, and explains the potential threat stemming from a particular trend. Understanding how to capitalize on these trends and knowing how to avoid the common pitfalls are the keys to creating a solid economic future for individual investors and business leaders. Contains the strategies for capitalizing on cyclical opportunities and avoiding economic dangers Offers an examination of major economic trends Includes information on the leading economic indicators that most reliably achieve results Shows how to preserve wealth and avoid the most common investing pitfalls This comprehensive resource offers guidelines for averting cyclical downturns and building on rising industry trends.