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Published: 1988

Total Pages: 154

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal deficit under Administration policies would be $165 billion in 1989, $157 billion in 1990, and $109 billion in 1993. These figures are considerably higher than the Administration's own estimates̃$130 billion in 1989, $104 billion in 1990, and $23 billion in 1993. Most of the differences between the CBO and Administration estimates reflect assumptions about the future of the economy. CBO foresees less rapid real growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates than does the Administration. The Administration's 1989 deficit estimate of $130 billion appears to fall below the statutory target of $136 billion. But excluding $10 billion in asset sales, which may not be counted as savings under the terms of the Balanced Budget Reaffirmation Act, the Administration's estimate would be $140 billion. The budget also exceeds the deficit targets in 1990 through 1993 under both CBO and Administration assumptions, as shown in Figure 1-1. CBO analyzes the Administration's budget in terms of changes from the CBO baseline, which projects the course of the budget on the assumption that current taxing and spending policies continue unchanged. CBO reestimates, or reprices, the Administration's budget using CBO's economic and technical estimating assumptions and methods. The differences between the baseline projections and the CBO estimate of the budget measure the effects of the Administration's proposed policy changes. CBO estimates that the Administration's proposals would reduce the deficit by $12 billion in 1989, $13 billion in 1990, and $29 billion in 1993.