The concomitant Covid-19 pandemic and oil price shock in 2020 have taken a heavy toll on the Algerian economy and the population. The authorities' response helped mitigate the social and economic impact of the crisis. Nevertheless, the crisis exacerbated the Algerian economy's vulnerabilities, making even more urgent the need for a new, more inclusive and sustainable, growth model. A recovery is underway in 2021, but the outlook remains challenging. While the recent rebound in hydrocarbon prices should buoy the recovery and ease immediate financing constraints, addressing long-standing structural challenges will help to realize Algeria's vast growth potential for the benefit of its population.
The concomitant Covid-19 pandemic and oil price shock in 2020 have taken a heavy toll on the Algerian economy and the population. The authorities’ response helped mitigate the social and economic impact of the crisis. Nevertheless, the crisis exacerbated the Algerian economy’s vulnerabilities, making even more urgent the need for a new, more inclusive and sustainable, growth model. A recovery is underway in 2021, but the outlook remains challenging. While the recent rebound in hydrocarbon prices should buoy the recovery and ease immediate financing constraints, addressing long-standing structural challenges will help to realize Algeria’s vast growth potential for the benefit of its population.
The concomitant Covid-19 pandemic and oil price shock in 2020 have taken a heavy toll on the Algerian economy and the population. The authorities’ response helped mitigate the social and economic impact of the crisis. Nevertheless, the crisis exacerbated the Algerian economy’s vulnerabilities, making even more urgent the need for a new, more inclusive and sustainable, growth model. A recovery is underway in 2021, but the outlook remains challenging. While the recent rebound in hydrocarbon prices should buoy the recovery and ease immediate financing constraints, addressing long-standing structural challenges will help to realize Algeria’s vast growth potential for the benefit of its population.
High frequency estimates suggest a V-shaped recovery with output now poised to return close to 2019 levels already this year, much earlier than expected. Recently COVID-19 case numbers have risen sharply to new highs while vaccinations have also accelerated significantly after a slow start. The recovery has improved the fiscal outlook and the authorities submitted to Parliament a supplementary budget, with GEL 1.2 billion in additional spending roughly equivalent to the expected increase in revenues. The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has increased the policy rate by 200 basis points to deal with high inflation driven by lagging effects of depreciation, commodity and food price increases, and supply side constraints.
In Turkey, as in other countries, the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been severe. Thousands of lives have been tragically lost and many livelihoods compromised. The initial policy response to the pandemic—and subsequent sharp growth rebound—set Turkey apart from its peers. Rapid monetary and credit expansion and large liquidity support meant that Turkey was among the few countries to experience positive economic growth in 2020. But these policies also aggravated pre-existing economic and financial vulnerabilities. Higher inflation, increased dollarization, and a large shift in the current account position increased pressure on the lira and gave rise to heavy foreign exchange sales, which led in turn to steep reserve declines from already-low levels. A policy shift in late 2020—mainly towards tighter and more transparent monetary policy and slower credit growth—was both welcome and necessary. But the durability and depth of the shift were called into question in March 2021, following the change in central bank leadership, as the lira weakened markedly and interest rate spreads widened.
Ghana has been hit hard by the pandemic. The government’s proactive response helped contain the spread of COVID-19, protecting lives and limiting the impact on economic activity. However, partly because of the pandemic, the fiscal position worsened considerably last year, with a sharp increase in public sector debt.
North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania, and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued progress in economic development. While informality has traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown measures have particularly affected high-informality service sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal workers.
While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.
The Algerian economy was still emerging from the Covid pandemic when it was hit by spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine and by recurrent droughts. These shocks fueled inflation while high international hydrocarbon prices also boosted government revenue and exports. Algeria’s economy likely recorded a robust growth in 2023 and the external position remained solid, with a current account surplus for the second year in a row and further accumulation of international reserves. Inflation remains elevated and could become entrenched. The 2023–24 budgets aim at supporting the purchasing power of households but risk depleting the buffers that protect the budget from revenue volatility. Structural reforms are advancing with the enactment of the Monetary and Banking law and the implementation of program budgeting and the 2022 Investment Law. Investment in digitalization would strengthen governance and transparency, reduce corruption risks, and improve service delivery.
