Airline Passenger Cancellations
Airline Passenger Cancellations

Author: Oren Petraru

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 125

ISBN-13:

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Passenger demand forecasting, and subsequently passenger cancellation forecasting, are important components in any airline revenue management (RM) system. Passenger cancellations can potentially lead to flights leaving with empty seats and thus to loss of revenues. Airlines need accurate cancellation forecasting tools in order to properly compensate for cancellations, or in other words, overbook flights above their physical capacity. At the same time, airlines need to be cautious not to overbook too aggressively. If a flight is still overbooked at time of departure, not all passengers are able to board and those left behind need to be compensated and re-accommodated. This thesis focuses on modelling and forecasting passenger cancellations using the PODS booking simulation tool. Several methods for cancellation forecasting and overbooking are presented and their impacts are tested under different demand, competition and RM strategy settings. All methods are based on time series modeling of historical observations. However, the methods differ in terms of the data they use and the canceled bookings they compensate for. The potential contribution of Passenger Name Record data (PNR) to more accurate cancellation forecasting is discussed as well. Simulation results indicate that the ticket revenue gains due to cancellation forecasting and overbooking range between 1.15% and 4.16%, depending on the cancellation forecasting method used and the level of overbooking aggressiveness. However, aggressive overbooking increases the negative effect on revenues due to the costs associated with denied hoardings. Therefore, after taking into account these costs, the net revenue gains range between 0.06% and 2.79%. For airlines with high cancellation rates, the magnitude of the gains from cancellation forecasting and overbooking is even greater, reaching 3.59% in net revenue improvements.

Airline Passenger Protections
Airline Passenger Protections

Author: U.s. Government Accountability Office

Publisher:

Published: 2017-08-17

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13: 9781974642564

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"Flight delays and cancellations aredisruptive and costly for passengers,airlines, and the economy. Longtarmac delays have created hardshipsfor some passengers. To enhancepassenger protections in the event offlight disruptions, the U.S. Departmentof Transportation (DOT) recentlyintroduced passenger protectionregulations, including a rule that tookeffect in April 2010 designed to preventtarmac delays more than 3 hours (thetarmac delay rule), as well as otherefforts to improve passenger welfare.As requested, this report addresses (1)whether flight delays and cancellationsdiffer by community size; (2) howDOT's tarmac delay rule has affectedpassengers and airlines; and (3) howpassenger protection requirements inthe United States, Canada, and theEuropean Union (EU) affectpassengers and airlines. GAOanalyzed DOT data, including throughthe use of regression models, as wellas data from FlightStats, a privatesource of flight performanceinformation. GAO also revieweddocuments and interviewedgovernment, airline, and consumergroup officials in the United States,Canada, and the EU."

Airline Passenger Protections
Airline Passenger Protections

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 111

ISBN-13:

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"Flight delays and cancellations are disruptive and costly for passengers, airlines, and the economy. Long tarmac delays have created hardships for some passengers. To enhance passenger protections in the event of flight disruptions, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) recently introduced passenger protection regulations, including a rule that took effect in April 2010 designed to prevent tarmac delays more than 3 hours (the tarmac delay rule), as well as other efforts to improve passenger welfare. As requested, this report addresses (1) whether flight delays and cancellations differ by community size; (2) how DOT's tarmac delay rule has affected passengers and airlines; and (3) how passenger protection requirements in the United States, Canada, and the European Union (EU) affect passengers and airlines. GAO analyzed DOT data, including through the use of regression models, as well as data from FlightStats, a private source of flight performance information. GAO also reviewed documents and interviewed government, airline, and consumer group officials in the United States, Canada, and the EU."--Highlights.

Terminal Chaos
Terminal Chaos

Author: George L. Donohue

Publisher: AIAA (American Institute of Aeronautics & Astronautics)

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 272

ISBN-13:

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In total passenger miles, air travel has never been more popular. But as any frequent flyer knows, air travel problems are growing even faster - long lines, lost luggage, overbooking, flight delays, and serious safety issues. And instead of doing something about it, the traveling public seems simply to be sitting down, buckling in, and allowing itself to be treated like sheep.But it doesn't have to be this way. There are solutions to our air travel problems, real solutions that can make real differences. And they don't require 15 years to implement.With decades of experience in civil aviation and policy, Drs. George Donohue and Russell Shaver are well qualified to assess the problems in the system and offer responsible, workable solutions. Dr. Donohue, the current Director of the Center for Air Transportation Systems Research and a Professor of Systems Engineering at George Mason University (GMU), has extensive high-level experience at the Federal Aviation Administration and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Dr.Shaver, formerly a senior RAND Corporation research analyst and now a visiting research fellow at GMU, served as chief scientist for policy analysis at the MITRE Center for Advanced Aviation System Development.The stories they tell are compelling. There are high-profile horror stories - passengers stranded for hours on the tarmac, flights cancelled for 'bad weather' when there's not a drop of rain anywhere near the flight path - as well as an overall sense of apathy and obstructionism among those responsible for managing the industry. Interestingly, these problems are not the inevitable result of the size or complexity of the U.S. system. Air transportation in Europe, with almost identical air traffic control systems and safety standards, is far better.Amsterdam moves 30 per cent more passengers than Newark, but the average flight delay is an order of magnitude lower. In addition, a European Passenger's Bill of Rights - giving distressed passengers the right to substantial and immediate compensation - has been a powerful incentive for non-U.S. airlines to maintain their schedules.So just how did we get where we are in the U.S. system today?Donohue and Shaver cite multiple reasons that have combined to create the chaos we now face. These causes include airline deregulation, multiple governmental agencies with no central oversight or responsibility, multiple corporate entities with conflicting agendas, and a technologically outdated air traffic control system. Even more importantly, there seems to be a complete absence of advocacy for the customer - the passengers. The authors also explain that our air travel problems, if left unaddressed, are on a direct course to greatly impact the overall U.S. economy and harm our global competitiveness. In 2006 alone, delays and cancellations cost U.S. travelers an estimated $3.2 billion. And in 2004 and 2005, the U.S. tourism industry is estimated to have lost $98 billion in revenue due to our air travel mess.Fortunately, Donohue and Shaver don't leave us in this state of chaos. Their provocative analysis not only identifies the causes and extent of the problems, but also provides us with a course heading to put us on the path to recovery.The solutions they propose include holding the government decision-makers responsible, expanding the capacity of airports and airplanes, modernizing the air traffic control system, and implementing what the authors call the '30 per cent solution' to significantly reduce congestion.In short, this book should be read by every airline passenger traveling in or through the United States. As a country, we simply can't afford to let the chaos continue.

Dragged Off
Dragged Off

Author: David Anh Dao

Publisher: Mango Media Inc.

Published: 2021-03-16

Total Pages: 134

ISBN-13: 1642504025

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A Vietnamese Refugee, a Viral Video, and the United Airlines Scandal That Started It All “His refusal to give up his seat on a United Airlines flight, and the ensuing assault he suffered, is emblematic of how far we, the people, still have to travel to create a world with liberty and justice for all.” —Marlena Fiol, PhD, globally recognized scholar and speaker and author of Nothing Bad Between Us Dr. David Dao was dragged off United Express Flight 3411 on April 9, 2017 after refusing to give up his seat. In the tradition of contemporary immigrant stories comes a personal narrative of the many small but significant acts of racial discrimination faced on the way to the American Dream. The unseen effects of discrimination. The United Airlines scandal of 2017 garnered over a million views on YouTube. A result of an overbooking overlook, security officials forcibly removed Dr. Dao after refusing to give up his seat. He awoke in the hospital to a concussion, a broken nose, several broken teeth, and worldwide attention. Things aren’t always fair for an immigrant, but according to Dr. Dao, you can prevail if you firmly advocate for yourself. A response to a lifetime of oppressive acts. Why was Dr. Dao so adamant on his right to a seat? His entire life had led to that moment. A Vietnamese refugee, he fled his home country during the fall of Saigon. He was stranded in the Indian Ocean, immigrated to the United States, enrolled in medical school for a second time, built a practice, and started a family-all the while battling the effects of discrimination and what he had to embrace as a result. This is his story. If you are moved by immigrant stories, or books like America for Americans, Minor Feelings, How to Be an Antiracist, or The Making of Asian America, then you’ll want to read Dr. David Dao's story, Dragged Off.

Flight Cancellation Behavior and Aviation System Performance
Flight Cancellation Behavior and Aviation System Performance

Author: Michael Seelhorst

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 95

ISBN-13:

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Flight cancellations are costly events for both airlines and passengers, yet are poorly understood. This dissertation expands upon literature that has studied flight cancellations by incorporating more variables and using advanced model specifications. In addition, it is necessary to understand the drivers of flight cancellations to quantify the relationship between flight cancellations and flight delay forecasts, which has been poorly documented in the literature. This dissertation investigates the factors leading to flight cancellations and quantifies the effect of flight cancellations on flight delay forecasts. First, econometric choice models are applied to a large dataset of historical flight information to determine the preferences and behaviors of airlines with respect to flight cancellations. The binary logit estimation results show that flight characteristics, such as load factor, distance, and flight frequency, are significant for determining the likelihood of flight cancellations, even when accounting for adverse weather effects. Airline-specific logit models indicate large heterogeneity with respect to flight cancellation tendencies across the industry. Inter-flight heterogeneity is explored through the use of mixed logit and latent class models, but lack of significant heterogeneity and long computation times provide evidence that a basic binary model can be sufficient for capturing the flight cancellation behavior of airlines. Cancellation predictions are made at an airport-level, but the distribution of predicted cancellations does not match well with the actual distribution observed in the data. Second, deterministic queueing methods are used to quantify the effect flight cancellations have on queueing delay forecasts. The cancellation model estimates are used to predict flight cancellations for a sample of all flights for 160 airport-days. The reductions in delay due to cancellations are captured using Monte Carlo simulation and a first-order approximation. The simulation results show that delays are reduced by 22% when considering the effect of cancellations and the first-order approximation results are no more than 4% larger than those from the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, a case study was performed based on the current operating environment at San Francisco International Airport, where capacity reductions are expected during the summer of 2014 due to runway construction. Moreover, airlines are proposing schedules with 5% more demand. The increased schedule combined with the capacity decrease leads to an large increase in the queueing delay forecasts. A cancellation model is used to predict the changes in delay that result from cancellations induced by the change in operating conditions. The results from the cancellation model indicate that departure cancellations will increase at an almost one-to-one ratio with the proposed demand increase, thus negating any benefit to airlines from a denser schedule. The feedback of cancellations on queueing delay is further explored with analytical models. As witnessed in the case study, queueing delay can reach a theroetical maximum where any additions to the flight schedule results in higher queueing delays and an associated increase in flight cancellations that compensate for the additional flight and return the demand, and queueing delay, to its original level.