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Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2001-07-26
Total Pages: 214
ISBN-13: 9780521003117
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis work, a paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty, describes the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning; and highlights its mathematical and philosophical foundations.
Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2010-10-19
Total Pages: 235
ISBN-13: 1444336517
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMaking Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. Introduces readers to key aspects of decision theory and examines how they might help us make better decisions Presentation of material encourages readers to imagine a situation and make a decision or a judgment Offers a broad coverage of the subject including major insights from several sub-disciplines: microeconomic theory, decision theory, game theory, social choice, statistics, psychology, and philosophy Explains these insights informally in a language that has minimal mathematical notation or jargon, even when describing and interpreting mathematical theorems Critically assesses the theory presented within the text, as well as some of its critiques Includes a web resource for teachers and students
Author: Luigi Luini
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-12-06
Total Pages: 360
ISBN-13: 1461550831
DOWNLOAD EBOOKUncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.
Author: Ralph L. Keeney
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 1993-07
Total Pages: 596
ISBN-13: 9780521438834
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Author: Frédéric Adam
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2022-05-30
Total Pages: 245
ISBN-13: 1000543102
DOWNLOAD EBOOKManagers in organisations must make rational decisions. Rational decision making is the opposite of intuitive decision making. It is a strict procedure utilising objective knowledge and logic. It involves identifying the problem to solve, gathering facts, identifying options and outcomes, analysing them, considering all the relationships and selecting the decision. Rational decision making requires support: methods and software tools. The identification of the problem to solve needs methods that would measure and evaluate the current situation. Identification and evaluation of options and analysis of the available possibilities involves analysis and optimisation methods. Incorporating intuition into rational decision making needs adequate methods that would translate ideas or observed behaviours into hard data. Communication, observation and opinions recording is hardly possible today without adequate software. Information and data that form the input, intermediate variables and the output must be stored, managed and made accessible in a user-friendly manner. Rational Decisions in Organisations: Theoretical and Practical Aspects presents selected recent developments in the support of the widely understood rational decision making in organisations, illustrated through case studies. The book shows not only the variety of perspectives involved in decision making, but also the variety of domains where rational decision support systems are needed. The case studies present decision making by medical doctors, students and managers of various universities, IT project teams, construction companies, banks and small and large manufacturing companies. Covering the richness of relationships in which the decisions should and must be taken, the book illustrates how modern organisations operate in chains and networks; they have multiple responsibilities, including social, legal, business and ethical duties. Nowadays, managers in organisations can make transparent decisions and consider a multitude of stakeholders and their diverse features, incorporating diverse criteria, using multiple types and drivers of information and decision-making patterns, and referring to numerous lessons learned. As the book makes clear, the marriage of theoretical ideas with the possibilities offered by technology can make the decisions in organisations more rational and, at the same time, more human.
Author: Ken Binmore
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2008-12-29
Total Pages: 214
ISBN-13: 1400833094
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIt is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
Author: Annemarie Vaccaro
Publisher: Naspa-Student Affairs Administrators in Higher Education
Published: 2013
Total Pages: 250
ISBN-13: 9780931654855
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDecisions Matter is an innovative guide designed to help novice student affairs professionals develop effective decision-making skills. Written by seasoned student affairs educators and practitioners, this book contains a systematic method for solving a wide range of complex problems. In this exceptional instructional tool, the authors present a decision-making framework developed specifically to address challenges in contemporary higher education, including alcohol issues, natural disasters, social media, group dynamics, mental health concerns, veterans affairs, and much more. Decisions Matter features 30 diverse case studies that reflect real-life scenarios faced by student affairs professionals on college and university campuses. The cases involve a variety of functional areas and institutional contexts to prepare readers to make decisions in different educational settings. A significant feature of Decisions Matter is its connection to and use of the professional competencies outlined in Professional Competency Areas for Student Affairs Practitioners (ACPA & NASPA, 2010). Decisions Matter provides a practical set of strategies to help graduate students and new professionals cultivate proficiency in the professional competency areas while making decisions about multifaceted higher education problems. Effective decision making is an essential skill for successful student affairs practice. By learning and applying the decision-making framework and professional competencies to case studies and real-world problems, emerging student affairs professionals can begin their journey toward developing a consistent, comprehensive, and thoughtful process for decision making.
Author: Stefania Montani
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2010-08-11
Total Pages: 227
ISBN-13: 3642140777
DOWNLOAD EBOOKCase-based reasoning (CBR) is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) technique to support the capability of reasoning and learning in advanced decision support systems. CBR exploits the specific knowledge collected on previously encountered and solved situations, which are known as cases. In this book, we have collected a selection of papers on very recent CBR applications. These, after an in-depth analysis of their specific application domain needs, propose proper methodological solutions and give encouraging evaluation results, which have in some cases led to the commercialization step. The collected contributions demonstrate the capability of CBR to solve or handle issues which would be too difficult to manage with other classical AI methods and techniques, such as rules or models. The heterogeneity of the involved application domains indicates the flexibility of CBR, and its applicability in all those fields where experiential knowledge is (readily) available.
Author: David A. Blackwell
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Published: 2012-06-14
Total Pages: 388
ISBN-13: 0486150895
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEvaluating statistical procedures through decision and game theory, as first proposed by Neyman and Pearson and extended by Wald, is the goal of this problem-oriented text in mathematical statistics. First-year graduate students in statistics and other students with a background in statistical theory and advanced calculus will find a rigorous, thorough presentation of statistical decision theory treated as a special case of game theory. The work of Borel, von Neumann, and Morgenstern in game theory, of prime importance to decision theory, is covered in its relevant aspects: reduction of games to normal forms, the minimax theorem, and the utility theorem. With this introduction, Blackwell and Professor Girshick look at: Values and Optimal Strategies in Games; General Structure of Statistical Games; Utility and Principles of Choice; Classes of Optimal Strategies; Fixed Sample-Size Games with Finite Ω and with Finite A; Sufficient Statistics and the Invariance Principle; Sequential Games; Bayes and Minimax Sequential Procedures; Estimation; and Comparison of Experiments. A few topics not directly applicable to statistics, such as perfect information theory, are also discussed. Prerequisites for full understanding of the procedures in this book include knowledge of elementary analysis, and some familiarity with matrices, determinants, and linear dependence. For purposes of formal development, only discrete distributions are used, though continuous distributions are employed as illustrations. The number and variety of problems presented will be welcomed by all students, computer experts, and others using statistics and game theory. This comprehensive and sophisticated introduction remains one of the strongest and most useful approaches to a field which today touches areas as diverse as gambling and particle physics.
Author: Myron Tribus
Publisher: Elsevier
Published: 2013-10-22
Total Pages: 500
ISBN-13: 1483146235
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs is a reference for understanding the aspects of rational decision theory in terms of the basic formalism of information theory. The text provides ways to achieve correct engineering design decisions. The book starts with an understanding for the need to apply rationality, as opposed to uncertainty, in design decision making. Inductive logic in computers is explained where the design of the machine and the accompanying software are considered. The text then explains the functional equations and the problems of arriving at a rational description through some mathematical preliminaries. Bayes' equation and rational inference as tools for adjusting probabilities when something new is encountered in earlier probability distributions are explained. The book presents as well a case study concerning the error made in following specifications of spark plugs. The author also explains the Bernoulli trials, where a probability that a better hypothesis than that already adopted may exist. The rational measure of uncertainty and the principle of maximum entropy with sample calculations are included in the text. After considering the probabilities, the decision theory is taken up where engineering design follows. Examples regarding transmitter and voltmeter designs are presented. The book ends by explaining probabilities of success and failure as applied to reliability engineering, that it is a state of knowledge rather than the state of a thing. The text can serve as a textbook for students in technology engineering and design, and as a useful reference for mathematicians, statisticians, and fabrication engineers.
