Author: Rajiv Paudel

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 132

ISBN-13:

Mali is expected to be profoundly impacted by climate change. Its mid-century temperature could increase by 2°C, which could have detrimental impacts on crop production. Besides, northern Mali is currently highly arid is not suitable for agriculture. The South has the responsibility to feed the national population. However, the region is experiencing rapid population growth. Mali is likely to struggle to feed its growing population under climate change. Food production and food security in the South have a wider influence on the national food supply. Food security lies at the interface of biophysical, climatic, and socio-economic systems and demands a systemic approach for evaluation. Using a biophysical crop model with an agent-based model of household food systems, we capture the dynamics within and across multiple associated systems. We focus in the South and use multidisciplinary tools to explore the trajectories of household food security under climate change and population growth in the region.The dissertation is organized into three research papers. Paper 1, entitled "A Largely Unsupervised Domain-Independent Qualitative Data Extraction Approach for Empirical Agent-based Model Development.", focuses on exploring household food systems and identifying actors of household food security and their behaviors. Chiefly, we aim to extract the information needed to develop an ABM of household food systems. We apply largely automatic efficient approaches for information extraction from contextually rich qualitative field narratives. Using a combination of semantics and syntactic Natural Language Processing, we identify actors (agents) of household food security, their properties, and actions and interactions responsible for household food supply. The data extraction is primarily unsupervised and, apart from being efficient, it controls manual manipulation and bias introduction in the model development. We use the extracted information for developing a contextual model of household food security. Finally, we subject the model to stakeholder evaluation for credibility and validity.Paper 2, entitled "Analyzing household vulnerability to food insecurity in rural southern Mali - a coupled biophysical and social model approach", combines a biophysical process-based crop model with an ABM of household food system to analyze household vulnerability to food insecurity in southern Mali. We use the Systems Approach to Land Use Sustainability (SALUS) as the crop model to simulate the cultivation of maize, millet, and sorghum in the region. While SALUS provides information on food production, ABM simulates interactions for food access. We measure household vulnerability using Food Security Vulnerability Index (FSVI), a coping-based index, that evaluates households' vulnerability to food insecurity by assessing the mechanisms used by the households to address household food scarcity. Running a business-as-usual scenario, defined by low access to input, high population growth, and a high emission climate change scenario at Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 level, we find that maize and sorghum lose their productivity significantly under future climate change. Besides, the region sees a significant increase in its food insecure population. Around 80% of the regional households are at risk of food insecurity by mid-century. In paper 3, entitled "Global or Local? Effects of policy interventions on household food security in Koutiala, southern Mali: A coupled biophysical and social systems approach", we evaluate the effectiveness of selected global and local level policy intervention in promoting household food security in the South. The model recommends local level interventions that include improved access to input and lower population growth for a prompt and significant increase in food security in the region. More than 60% of the regional households could be food secure under the combinations of the interventions. However, the global level intervention that consists of lowering emission to RCP4.5 level does not have significant impacts on local household food production and food security.