Guyana is growing rapidly, and fiscal policy plays a critical role in ensuring that the country’s wealth is managed effectively and equitably. The paper analyzes crucial elements of a comprehensive fiscal policy framework, anchored on a medium-term fiscal framework, that would help in balancing several, and sometimes competing, fiscal policy objectives common to natural resource rich developing countries.
The Guyanese economy has tripled in size since the start of oil extraction (end- 2019), from one of the lowest GDP per capita in Latin America and the Caribbean in the early nineties. Oil production is ramping up rapidly, supporting the highest real GDP growth in the world in 2022 (62.3 percent). With the help of oil revenues, first transferred to the budget in 2022, the government has started investing heavily to address large development needs. Fundamentals remain strong and there are no signs of inflationary pressures or overheating as of yet—annual CPI inflation rate was 1.2 percent in July 2023— since there remains slack in the economy.
Following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, economic growth recovered in 2021, with non-oil GDP growth reaching 4.6 percent, despite being negatively impacted by floods. Inflation increased markedly since 2021 owing to the floods and supply-side disruptions, as well as continually rising fuel and food prices. Oil production increased and will ramp up substantially over the medium term.
Results-based management (RBM) is a public management strategy that involves decision making based on reliable information regarding the effects of governmental actions on society. It has been adopted in various developed countries as a way of improving efficiency and effectiveness in public policy. In Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, governments and public managers show increasing interest in this management strategy. Given the relative novelty of RBM in the region, however, there is scant literature on the subject. This book is intended to fill this gap in two ways. First, it seeks to describe some of the basic RBM concepts and adapt them according to regional characteristics. Second, it presents an assessment, based on studies carried out in 25 countries, of the challenges facing LAC countries and their capacity to implement results-based public management.
Guyana has weathered the impact of the global crisis well by regional and global standards. The current account deficit declined by 5 percent of GDP (to 8.5 percent of GDP), largely led by a reduction in imports, particularly of fuel. Macroeconomic policies have remained prudent. Monetary policy tightened somewhat in 2009, supporting the decline in inflation and external stability. Structural reform has continued to focus on further reducing vulnerabilities and entrenching long-term growth. The authorities have consolidated insurance and bank supervision at the central bank.
The Caribbean economy remains a region with many paradoxes. Despite a relative abundance of natural and valuable resources, including its people, large segments of the region still grapple with significant levels of debt, environmental degradation, high unemployment in the formal sector, climate change, limited progress in technological innovation, increasing energy costs, remittance dependency, tourism dependency, loss of correspondent banking relations, exchange rate, noncommunicable diseases, and domestic politics to name more than a few. The poorest countries still lag and remain far more vulnerable to external factors related to trade and global financial sector issues. This edited volume takes a closer look at the contemporary issues related to the economies of the Caribbean. The book provides an added dimension in that each of the chapters includes the contributions of a scholar with lived experiences in and knowledge of the region. Indeed, the book underscores the detailed evidence-based research and perspectives on topics providing insights into the current landscape of the Caribbean. Ultimately, understanding the Caribbean in its varied contexts is an important milestone in pursuing policies that will contribute to flourishing economies replete with sustained growth and development.
International oil producers have discovered commercially recoverable petroleum reserves of around 11 billion barrels that promise to transform Guyana's agricultural and mining economy into an oil powerhouse, while hopefully helping to diversify the non-oil economy. Oil production presents a momentous opportunity to boost inclusive growth and diversify the economy providing resources to address human development needs and infrastructure gaps. At the same time, it presents important policy challenges relating to effective and prudent management of the nation’s oil wealth. This study focusses on one of these challenges: the appropriate monetary policy and exchange rate framework for Guyana as it transitions to a major oil exporter.
Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available for growth-promoting capital spending. Small states generally face greater revenue volatility than other country groups, owing to their exposure to exogenous shocks (including natural disasters) and narrow production bases. With limited buffers, revenue volatility often results in procyclical fiscal policy as the econometric analysis shows. To strengthen fiscal frameworks, small states should seek to streamline and prioritize recurrent spending to create fiscal space for capital spending. The quality of spending could also be improved through public financial management reform and multiyear budgeting.
Improving public services, using State resources efficiently, and managing State agencies effectively have been ongoing concerns of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) governments since the beginning of this century. Government officials are now paying closer attention to the results obtained by their administrations. Citizens are now demanding not only universality but also quality in the services that the State provides (e.g., education, healthcare, and legal services). To meet this growing demand for public sector effectiveness, governments have formulated new laws, created or modified institutions, and implemented innovative management methodologies and instruments.Based on data gathered in 24 countries, this book analyzes the current situation, the progress made, and the challenges still facing the governments of the region in their efforts to achieve more effective public administrations.
This book is about oil and gas dynamics in the world’s newest petro-powers-in-the-making, and the attempts to balance this against the impact of climate change. The known oil reserves in the Guyana-Suriname Basin total some 30 billion barrels equivalent, and the gas reserves exceed 30 trillion cubic feet. This massive offshore discovery amounts to 10 percent of the world’s conventional oil, but Guyana and Suriname are also in a wet neighborhood, where the impact of climate change stands to wreak havoc on the area and undermine some of the oil gains. Examining the political economy of petroleum production and some of the myriad challenges and opportunities involved, the expert contributors discuss the global and regional geopolitical and national security ramifications of the petroleum pursuits and explore global climate change dynamics and their effects on the region. This title will be of interest to students, scholars of international political economy, environmental politics, and the Caribbean. It will also be invaluable to policymakers in countries with business investments in Guyana and Suriname, especially in the energy sector, and policy and operational staffs in regional and international organizations and companies.
