A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model
A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model

Author: Mr.Ondrej Kamenik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2008-12-01

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 9781451871371

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This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices
A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

Author: Mr.Ondrej Kamenik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-12-01

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13: 1451871384

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This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model
A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices
A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy
A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

Author: Mr.Ondrej Kamenik

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-12-01

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 1451871368

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This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.

Structural Models in Real Time
Structural Models in Real Time

Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-03-01

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1451963629

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This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.

Quarterly Projection Model for India
Quarterly Projection Model for India

Author: Mr.Jaromir Benes

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-02-13

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1475578709

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This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model
Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Author: Charles Freedman

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-11-01

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1451941714

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This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Economic Forecasting and Policy
Economic Forecasting and Policy

Author: N. Carnot

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2011-07-26

Total Pages: 516

ISBN-13: 0230306446

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Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific
Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific

Author: Hoe Ee Khor

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-08-10

Total Pages: 462

ISBN-13: 1475522711

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Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.