A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon
A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

Author: Julian di Giovanni

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2008-04-01

Total Pages: 23

ISBN-13: 9781451869583

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.

A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon
A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

Author: Julian di Giovanni

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives quot;fan chartsquot; to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.

Stochastic Debt Sustainability Analysis for Sovereigns and the Scope for Optimization Modeling
Stochastic Debt Sustainability Analysis for Sovereigns and the Scope for Optimization Modeling

Author: Andrea Consiglio

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We express the opinion that sovereign debt sustainability analysis must be augmented by stochastic correlated risk factors and a risk measure to capture tail effects. Crisis situations can thus be adequately specified and analyzed with sufficient accuracy to warrant the relevance of policy decisions. In this context there is significant scope for optimization modeling for both strategic planning and operational management. We discuss diverse aspects of the problem of debt sustainability and highlight modeling approaches that can be brought to bear on the problem. Results with the fictitiuous, but nor unrealistic, Kingdom of Atlantis, which is sinking under excessive debt, illustrate the proposed models.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2008
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2008

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-12-11

Total Pages: 19

ISBN-13: 1451959540

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

December 2008: IMF research summaries on global herding in financial markets (by Marco Cipriani) and on fiscal decentralization (by Lusine Lusinyan); article on the experiences of IMF staff at the Nobel Laureate Meetings in Lindau, Germany (by Chris Crowe); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during August–December 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 55 No. 4 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; listing of recent external publications by IMF staff; and a Call for Papers for an upcoming conference on structural reforms.

Money in the Middle East and North Africa
Money in the Middle East and North Africa

Author: David Cobham

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2010-12-07

Total Pages: 295

ISBN-13: 1136864164

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Building on the editors’ earlier book, Monetary Policy and Central Banking in the Middle East and North Africa, this book emphasises monetary policy strategies and frameworks. It fills an important gap providing multi-country and single-country studies on monetary policy in post-civil war Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Territory and Turkey.

Caribbean Renewal
Caribbean Renewal

Author: Charles Amo Yartey

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-05-06

Total Pages: 397

ISBN-13: 1484321170

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Caribbean economies face high and rising debt-to-GDP ratios that jeopardize prospects for medium-term debt sustainability and growth. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges of fiscal consolidation and debt reduction in the Caribbean. It examines the problem of high debt in the region and discusses policy options for improving debt sustainability, including fiscal consolidation, robust growth, and structural reforms. The book also examines empirically the factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes to draw important policy lessons for the Caribbean. It also reviews the literature on successful fiscal consolidation experiences and provides an overview of past and current consolidation efforts in the Caribbean. The book concludes that the region needs a broad and sustained package of reforms to reduce debt ratios to more manageable levels and strengthen economic resilience.

OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary 2012
OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary 2012

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2012-03-13

Total Pages: 154

ISBN-13: 9264127275

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

OECD's 2012 Economic Survey of Hungary reviews economic developments, prospects and policies and provides a series of policy recommendations. It also includes a special chapter on the labour market.

OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary 2012
OECD Economic Surveys: Hungary 2012

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2012-03-21

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 9789264127265

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

OECD's 2012 Economic Survey of Hungary reviews economic developments, prospects and policies and provides a series of policy recommendations. It also includes special chapters on the labour market and on the health care system.