A Primer on Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries
A Primer on Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries

Author: Daria Zakharova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2009-03-01

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 9781451872033

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This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.

Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle
Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-02-01

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1451962533

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This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.

Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries
Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries

Author: Mr.Jeffrey M. Davis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2003-08-21

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781589061750

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Countries with large oil resources can benefit substantially from them. However, despite their huge natural resources, many oil producers have had disappointing growth, widespread poverty, and continuing vulnerability to oil price and other external shocks. Fiscal policy can play a central role indetermining the extent to which a country benefits from its oil wealth. This book brings together studies that provide analysis and findings on fiscal policy issues in oil-producing countries from a diverse international perspective. A key focus for the authors is how to manage oil resources in a way that contributes to a stable macroeconomic environment, sustainable growth, and poverty reduction.

Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries
Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries

Author: Benedict J. Clements

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2002-08-01

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 9781451856132

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This paper discusses issues relating to the domestic pricing of petroleum in oil-producing countries. It finds that in most major oil-exporting countries, government policies keep domestic prices below free-market levels, resulting in implicit subsidies that equaled 3.0 percent of GDP, on average, in 1999. Moreover, the paper argues, these petroleum subsidies are inefficient and inequitable-entailing substantial opportunity costs in terms of forgone revenue or productive spending-and also procyclical, complicating macroeconomic management. Nonetheless, the elimination of petroleum subsidies is often politically difficult, although countervailing measures and publicity campaigns can help engender support for reform.

Fiscal Determinants of Inflation
Fiscal Determinants of Inflation

Author: Domenico Fanizza

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-10

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13:

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"Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have recently experienced surges in money growth that apparently have not generated significant inflationary pressures. Moreover, several MENA countries have followed monetary policy rules that according to standard monetary theory should have produced macroeconomic instability and possibly hyperinflation. We argue that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level could usefully provide insights on these developments. Our main conclusion is that a sound fiscal position constititutes a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability whereas "sound" monetary policy is neither sufficient nor necessary. Hence, fiscal policy and public debt deserve particular attention for maintaining macroeconomic stability, by and large consistent with Fund policy advice to MENA countries."

Stress Testing at the IMF
Stress Testing at the IMF

Author: Mr.Tobias Adrian

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-05

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 1513520741

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This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.