Risk assessment is a critical component in the evaluation and protection of natural or anthropogenic systems. Conventionally, risk assessment is involved with some essential steps such as the identification of problem, risk evaluation, and assessment review. Other novel approaches are also discussed in the book chapters. This book is compiled to communicate the latest information on risk assessment approaches and their effectiveness. Presented materials cover subjects from environmental quality to human health protection.
In this age of climatic and financial uncertainty, it becomes increasingly important to balance the cost, benefits and risk of wildfire management. In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in drastic damage and loss of life. An associated rapid increase in fire management costs has consumed higher portions of budgets of public entities involved in wildfire management, challenging their ability to fulfill other responsibilities. Increased public scrutiny highlights the need to improve wildland fire management for cost effectiveness. This book closely examines the development of basic wildfire suppression cost models for the United States and their application to a wide range of settings from informing incident decision making to programmatic review. The book also explores emerging trends in suppression costs and introduces new spatially explicit cost models to account for characteristics of the burned landscape. Finally, it discusses how emerging risk assessment tools can be better informed by integrating management cost models with wildfire simulation models and values at risk. Economics of Wildfire Management is intended for practitioners as a reference guide. Advanced-level students and researchers will also find the book invaluable.
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Managing wildland fire in the U.S. is a challenge increasing in complexity & magnitude. The goals & actions presented in this report encourage a proactive approach to wildland fire to reduce its threat. Five major topic areas on the subject are addressed: the role of wildland fire in resource management; the use of wildland fire; preparedness & suppression; wildland/urban interface protection; & coordinated program management. Also presented are the guiding principle that are fundamental to wildland fire management & recommendations for fire management policies. Photos, graphs, & references.
From a fire policy of prevention at all costs to today's restored burning, Between Two Fires is America's history channeled through the story of wildland fire management. Stephen J. Pyne tells of a fire revolution that began in the 1960s as a reaction to simple suppression and single-agency hegemony, and then matured into more enlightened programs of fire management. It describes the counterrevolution of the 1980s that stalled the movement, the revival of reform after 1994, and the fire scene that has evolved since then. Pyne is uniquely qualified to tell America’s fire story. The author of more than a score of books, he has told fire’s history in the United States, Australia, Canada, Europe, and the Earth overall. In his earlier life, he spent fifteen seasons with the North Rim Longshots at Grand Canyon National Park. In Between Two Fires, Pyne recounts how, after the Great Fires of 1910, a policy of fire suppression spread from America’s founding corps of foresters into a national policy that manifested itself as a costly all-out war on fire. After fifty years of attempted fire suppression, a revolution in thinking led to a more pluralistic strategy for fire’s restoration. The revolution succeeded in displacing suppression as a sole strategy, but it has failed to fully integrate fire and land management and has fallen short of its goals. Today, the nation’s backcountry and increasingly its exurban fringe are threatened by larger and more damaging burns, fire agencies are scrambling for funds, firefighters continue to die, and the country seems unable to come to grips with the fundamentals behind a rising tide of megafires. Pyne has once again constructed a history of record that will shape our next century of fire management. Between Two Fires is a story of ideas, institutions, and fires. It’s America’s story told through the nation’s flames.
Globally, fire regimes are being altered by changing climatic conditions and land use changes. This has the potential to drive species extinctions and cause ecosystem state changes, with a range of consequences for ecosystem services. Accurate prediction of the risk of forest fires over short timescales (weeks or months) is required for land managers to target suppression resources in order to protect people, property, and infrastructure, as well as fire-sensitive ecosystems. Over longer timescales, prediction of changes in forest fire regimes is required to model the effect of wildfires on the terrestrial carbon cycle and subsequent feedbacks into the climate system. This was the motivation to publish this book, which is focused on quantifying and modelling the risk factors of forest fires. More specifically, the chapters in this book address four topics: (i) the use of fire danger metrics and other approaches to understand variation in wildfire activity; (ii) understanding changes in the flammability of live fuel; (iii) modeling dead fuel moisture content; and (iv) estimations of emission factors. The book will be of broad relevance to scientists and managers working with fire in different forest ecosystems globally.
In July 2006, more than 170 researchers and managers from the United States, Canada, and Mexico convened in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss the state of the science in environmental threat assessment. This two-volume general technical report compiles peer-reviewed papers that were among those presented during the 3-day conference. Papers are organized by four broad topical sections--Land, Air and Water, Fire, and Pests/Biota--and are divided into syntheses and case studies. Land topics include discussions of forest land conversion and soil quality as well as investigations of species' responses to climate change. Air and water topics include discussions of forest vulnerability to severe weather and storm damage modeling. Fire topics include discussions of wildland arson and wildfire risk management as well as how people precieve wildfire risk and uncertainty. Pests/biota topics include discussions of risk mapping and probabilistic risk assessments as well as investigations of individual threats, including the southern pine beetle and Phytophora alni. Ultimately, this publication will foster exchange and collaboration between those who develop knowledge and tools for threat assessment and those who are responsible for managing forests and rangelands.
