Each year, Indian summer monsoon season begins in June and ends in September. Surface winds blow from the southwest during this season. The Indian summer monsoon typically covers large areas of India with western and central India receiving more than 90% of their total annual precipitation during this period, and southern and northwestern India receiving 50%-75% of their total annual rainfall. Overall, monthly totals average 200-300 mm over the country as a whole, with the largest values observed during the heart of the monsoon season in July and August. In all total, India receives about 870 mm of rainfall in a normal summer monsoon season. This summary discusses the effects of climate change on the frequency, mean rainfall, duration and the variability of the Indian Monsoon. East Asian Monsoon in the southeastern part of Asia is not discussed in this summary. Changes in monsoon characteristics are mainly inferred from climate model simulations submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It should be cautioned that there is a large range in the results from these models. For instance, the range of mean monsoon precipitation as simulated by the AR4 models over India is from 500 mm to 900 mm for the present-day climate (Kirpalani et al. 2006).
Variability of the Indian summer monsoon has increased significantly since the 1950s. For several regions across India, this means an increase in long dry periods with low or no rainfall, intermittent with short, intense spells of rainfall. These changes are particularly significant for the western, central and eastern states of India where more than 55% of the cultivated area is largely rainfed and where the adaptive capacity is the lowest. The large-scale secular changes in monsoon rainfall are attributed to the increase in global emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. At the same time, local changes through urbanization, land use changes and deforestation have brought in a non-uniform response in these rainfall trends. Changes in the onset, duration and intensity of the rainfall call for a reassessment of the crop calendar and climate resilient measures for the food-water-energy sectors of the country. Global warming has also altered the relationship between sea surface temperatures and other predictors of monsoon rainfall, introducing increasing challenges and uncertainties in the monsoon forecasts. Climate projections indicate a further increase in the monsoon variability and a shortening of the rainy season in the future, though there is considerable disagreement between model simulations.
This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the regional climate and monsoons of the Indian subcontinent, adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It documents the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, constitute important reference materials for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, the focus on regional climate change aspects is considerably limited. The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. This book also presents policy relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.
This book provides a synthesis of research findings, in terms of strategic knowledge outcomes regarding emergence of recent regional climate signals, implications for impacts assessment, and mitigation and adaptation response, relevant in the Indian context. The first part discusses evidence of climate change and its underlying scientific processes across India, chiefly focusing on impacts that are already visible and attributable to anthropogenic activities. The latter part deals with the responses to climate change, highlighting the mitigation and adaptation strategies in various sectors and communities. The book presents a concise interpretation, distilling practical recommendations and policy prescriptions at national and sub-national levels. It serves as a reference point for understanding scientific advances and persisting uncertainty, future vulnerability and response capacity of interlinked human and natural systems, pertaining to India. It is an excellent resource for policy makers and industry watchers in addition to the research fraternity.
This is a timely, interdisciplinary scientific overview of the atmosphere, the ocean and the land surface as it interacts with physical, chemical and biological processes. The high level of detail sets it apart from other studies of monsoon meteorology. The text includes analysis of paleoclimate records, human influences on the monsoon climate and the economic impacts of the monsoon on economies and to human health.
This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the regional climate and monsoons of the Indian subcontinent, adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It documents the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, constitute important reference materials for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, the focus on regional climate change aspects is considerably limited. The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. This book also presents policy relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.
This book presents a global overview examining monsoon variability in South Asia, Australian, South America and North American, as well as a focus on glaciers and monsoon systems. Monsoon systems are important components of the Earth's climate and play fundamental roles in water and energy balances. The variability and changes in the monsoons affect millions of people and the economies of many countries. This book presents the physical mechanisms involved with monsoon systems, including recent modeling advances addressing climate changes and future projections. The Monsoons and Climate Change will be of interest to both graduate students and researchers.
The disturbing changes occurring in the global climate and environment has been a matter of concern for the current generation. The issue of climate change due to human activities can be analysed under two broad categories: emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and the nearly irreversible damage to the environment. Reducing emissions of GHGs is intimately connected with economic issues and hence a matter of global politics. It needs to be handled through global negotiations and, ultimately, through the use of alternate sources of energy and clean technology. The second category is more dangerous, since the recovery process will be extremely slow and the corrective measures more complicated than those for the GHG abatement. Large-scale mass movements, and not mere government policies or laws, are necessary to tackle this factor.
This Publication Presents A Collection Of 16 Selected Research/ Review Papers On Various Aspects Of Monsoons Those Were Discussed During The International Roundtable On Understanding And Prediction Of Summer And Winter Monsoons Held At Jakarta/ Bandung, Indonesia During 21-24 November, 2005. Monsoons Modulate The Rhythm Of Life In Several Countries. The Amount Of Rain Received During Monsoons Critically Controls The Way Of Life, Culture And Economy. The Word Monsoon Indicates A Rainy Season But The Domain Of Monsoon Encompasses Seasonal Changes In Prevailing Surface Wind Direction Especially Between Summer And Winter. The Ability To Anticipate How Monsoon And The Resultant Climate, Will Behave From One Year To The Next Will Lead To Better Management Of Agriculture, Water Supplies, Fisheries And Other Resources. Prediction Of Monsoon However Is One Of The Major Challenges Of Climate Research As It Is An Extremely Complex Phenomenon Involving Variabilities Over A Wide Range Of Spatial And Temporal Scales. The Topics Covered In This Volume Include Observed Aspects Of Monsoons In Several Countries, Analyses Of Model Simulations And Forecasts, Survey Of Instrumentation And Analysis Techniques And Projections Of Monsoon In The Future Climate. Hence, The Publication Is Undoubtedly, A Useful Reference Material For The Meteorologists And Experts Working In The Area Of Monsoon Prediction And Will Help The Developing Countries In Working Out Appropriate Plans And Programmes On Understanding And Prediction Of Monsoons. Contents Chapter 1: Short And Long Range Forecasting In India By S R Kalsi; Chapter 2: Medium And Extended Range Forecasting Of Indian Monsoon By A K Bohra, G Iyengar, E N Rajagopal, M Dasgupta, R Ashrit, S Basu And A K Mitra; Chapter 3: Prediction Of Local Rainfall From Gcm Output Using Projection Pursuit Technique By A H Wigena, Aunuddin And Rizaldi Boer; Chapter 4: Long-Range, High-Resolution Forecast Of Monsoon Rainfall By P Goswami, G K Patra, K C Gouda And V S Prakash; Chapter 5: An Overview Of Advanced Instrumentation And Network: Present Status And Future Modernisation Plan Of The National Meteorological Service Of India By S K Banerjee; Chapter 6: Data Assimilation At Ncmrwf: Case Study Of Recent Monsoon System By M Das Gupta, John P George, R Ashrit; Chapter 7: Development Of Statistical-Dynamical Models At Ncmrwf For Predicting Location Specific Weather During Monsoon By P Maini And Ashok Kumar; Chapter 8: A Tropical Mid-Range Forecast Model Based On The Single Value Decomposition Of The Madden-Julian Oscillation Chien Wan Tham; Chapter 9: Association Between Indonesian Rainfall And The Indian Ocean Dipole By P N Vinayachandran And Ravi S Nanjundiah; Chapter 10: Decadal To Interdecadal Time Scale Climate Variability: In Context Of Asian/ Indian Monsoon System By R K Tiwari And S Sri Lakshmi; Chapter 11: Influence Of Eurasian And Tibetan Snow On Indian Summer Monsoon By S K Dash, P Parth Sarthi And M S Shekhar; Chapter 12: Influence Of Enso On The Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Over Pakistan: A Review By Tariq Masood Ali Khan, Arif Mahmood, M M Rabbani, S Moazzam Ali And Nadeem Faisal; Chapter 13: The Monsoonal Climatic Profile Of Sri Lanka By Chandima Gomes; Chapter 14: Impact Of Monsoons To Tanzania By E Matari; Chapter 15: Prediction Of Extreme Weather And Climate In The Indonesian Maritime Continent Based On Sunspot Numbers By The Houw Liong And Plato Martuani Siregar; Chapter 16: Characteristics Of India Summer Monsoon In The Warming Scenario By S K Patwardhan, K Krishna Kumar, K Kamala, Preethi Bhaskar, J V Revadekar And K Rupa Kumar.
