Two years into the deepest global financial crisis in the post-war era, the world economy is still experiencing uneven economic recovery and financial weakness. Financial market conditions are signaling improved investor confidence and more appetite for cross-border investments. As part of its mandate to encourage investment to developing countries, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) seeks to foster more understanding of the role of political risk, and instruments to mitigate it. The objective for this report is to examine (i) overall investment trends and perceptions of political risk especially for what regards foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets; (ii) investments and risks specifically in Conflict-Affected and Fragile States (iii) the role political risk insurance (PRI) is playing today and its likely role in the future.
Annotation Breach of contract is a hot topic in risk management, especially in the context of Public-Private Partnerships for large utility, infrastructure, or mineral resource exploitation projects around the world. Some claims are related to economic crisis, but more often disputes arise from political change, privatization reviews, environmental regulations and governance/corruption issues. Some recent high profile cases involving government tariff renegotiations and award settlements underline the importance of this topic for international investors. Claims of breach of contract often bring about an abrupt termination of activities or force contract renegotiations that subtsantially alter the original terms of the deal and projected financial validity. This study offers significant new data and analysis to allow an informed assessement of current developments and underlying trends, in a new collaboration between the World Bank Group (IBRD, MIGA, and ICSID) and Washington University in St. Louis.
This study analyzes the characteristics, motivations, strategies, and needs of FDI from emerging markets. It draws from a survey of investors and potential investors in Brazil, India, South Korea, and South Africa.
The Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019-2020 provides novel analytical insights, empirical evidence, and actionable recommendations for governments seeking to enhance investor confidence in times of uncertainty. The report's findings and policy recommendations are organized around "3 ICs" - they provide guidance to governments on how to increase investments' contributions to their country's development, enhance investor confidence, and foster their economies' investment competitiveness. The report presents results of a new survey of more than 2,400 business executives representing FDI in 10 large developing countries: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. The results show that over half of surveyed foreign businesses have already been adversely affected by policy uncertainty, experiencing a decrease in employment, firm productivity, or investment. Foreign investors report that supporting political environments, stable macroeconomic conditions, and conducive regulatory regimes are their top three investment decision factors. Moreover, the report's new global database of regulatory risk shows that predictability and transparency increase investor confidence and FDI flows. The report also assesses the impact of FD! on poverty, inequality, employment, and firm performance using evidence from various countries. It shows that FDI in developing countries yields benefits to their firms and citizens-including more and better-paid jobs-but governments need to be vigilant about possible adverse consequences on income distribution. The report is organized in S chapters: Chapter 1 presents the results of the foreign investor survey. Chapter 2 explores the differential performance and development impact of greenfield FDI, local firms acquired by multinational corporations {i.e. brownfield FDI), and domestically-owned firms using evidence from six countries. Chapter 3 assesses the impact of FDI on poverty, inequality, employment and wages, using case study evidence from Ethiopia, Turkey and Vietnam. Chapter 4 presents a new framework to measure FDI regulatory risk that is linked to specific legal and regulatory measures. Chapter S focuses on factors for increasing the effectiveness of investment promotion agencies.
The book covers a wide range of topics of relevance to policymakers in countries that have sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and those that receive SWF investments. Renowned experts in the field have contributed chapters. The book is organized around four themes: (1) the role and macrofinancial linkages of SWFs, (2) institutional factors, (3) investment approaches and financial markets, and (4) the postcrisis outlook. The book also discusses the challenges facing sovereign wealth funds in the coming years, from an inside perspective on countries, including Canada, Chile, China, Norway, Russia, and New Zealand. Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds will contribute to a further understanding of the nature, strategies and behavior of SWFs and the environment in which they operate, as their importance is likely to grow in the coming years.
Two years into the deepest global financial crisis in the post-war era, the world economy is still experiencing uneven economic recovery and financial weakness. Financial market conditions are signaling improved investor confidence and more appetite for cross-border investments. As part of its mandate to encourage investment to developing countries, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) seeks to foster more understanding of the role of political risk, and instruments to mitigate it. The objective for this report is to examine (i) overall investment trends and perceptions of political risk especially for what regards foreign direct investment (FDI) to emerging markets; (ii) investments and risks specifically in Conflict-Affected and Fragile States (iii) the role political risk insurance (PRI) is playing today and its likely role in the future.
The Global Investment Competitiveness report presents new insights and evidence on drivers of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries, and FDI’s role in development. The report’s survey of 750 executives of multinational corporations finds that a business-friendly legal and regulatory environment is a key driver of investment decisions in developing countries, along with political stability, security, and macroeconomic conditions. The report’s topic-specific chapters explore the potential of FDI to create new growth opportunities for local firms, assess the power of tax holidays and other fiscal incentives to attract FDI, analyze characteristics of FDI originating in developing countries, and examine the experience of foreign investors in countries affected by conflict and fragility. Three key features of this Global Investment Competitiveness report distinguish it from other publications on FDI. First, its insights are based on a combination of first-hand perspectives of investors, extensive analysis of available data and evidence, and international good practices in investment policy design and implementation. Secondly, rather than exploring broad FDI trends, the report provides detailed and unique analysis of FDI depending on its motivation, sector, geographic origin and destination, and phase of investment. Thirdly, the report offers practical and actionable recommendations to policymakers in developing countries wishing to reform their business climates for increased investment competitiveness. As such, the report is meant to complement other knowledge products of the World Bank Group focused even more explicitly on country-level data, detailed reform diagnostics, and presentation of best practices. We are confident this report will bring value and fresh perspectives to a variety of audiences. To governments and policymakers, including investment promotion professionals, the report offers direct insights into the role of government policies and actions in investors’ decision-making. To foreign investors and site location consultants, the report provides information on FDI trends and drivers across sectors and geographies. For academic audiences, the new datasets on investment incentives and FDI motivations enables opportunities for additional research and analysis. Lastly, for development assistance providers and other stakeholders, the report highlights key approaches for maximizing FDI’s benefits for development.
Sustainable development, as defined by the World Commission on Environment and Development, is "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." More specifically, sustainable development is a process of change that seeks to improve the collective quality of life by focusing on economically, socially, and environmentally sound projects that are viable in the long-term. Sustainable development requires structural economic change and the foundation of that change is investment. In developing nations with low levels of domestic savings, investment predictably comes from abroad in the form of foreign direct investment. A large and ever expanding number of international investment agreements are in place to govern these transactions. While these accords seek to foster development while mitigating the risk involved in these types investments, many questions remain unresolved. This highly insightful book reflects the contributions of a variety of world renowned experts each of which is designed to provide the reader with valuable perspective on recent developments in investment law negotiations and jurisprudence from a sustainable development law perspective. It offers answers to pertinent questions concerning advancements in investment law, including the negotiation of numerous regional and bilateral agreements as well as the increasing number of disputes resolved in the World Bank's International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), from different developed and developing country perspectives. It lays out future directions for new treaty negotiations and dispute settlement proceedings, as well as ongoing investment promotion efforts, against a background of rapidly evolving international relationships between economic, environment and development law. It focuses on key issues in investment laws which have emerged as priorities in the negotiation of bilateral and regional investment agreements, and have been clarified through recent decisions of the ICSID and other arbitral panel awards.
A vital text for practitioners and academics this book integrates the international law of political risk with the domestic, political, and economic considerations central to assessing risk. It offers a detailed analysis of pre-investment decisions that can reduce political risk, treaties protecting investment, and international dispute resolution.
This comprehensive two-volume work is a collection of determinations from OPIC, the US governmental political risk insurance provider, in the form of its Memoranda of Determinations from 1966 through to 2010. An important part of international investment law and policy is the political risk insurance coverage provided to international investors by their home states and multilateral organizations such as the World Bank. These programs are of crucial importance to the growth of international investment flows and the development of international investment law. The insurance claim decisions and as a result this area of international law has received disproportionately little attention. This reference work is the first to make the underlying primary material available to the investment law, political risk and academic communities. The authors have made the claims determinations more accessible with the inclusion of headnote summaries for all determinations. The determinations reflect the decisions of OPIC under US and international law and therefore have a significant impact on its future claims determinations. They reveal what types of claims have been honored for expropriation, political violence or convertibility/transferability restrictions. Users of political risk insurance worldwide will find this collection invaluable in understanding what events are and are not in fact covered, and deciding whether to obtain insurance coverage. These OPIC determinations will also contribute to the development of arbitral jurisprudence regarding government actions that are alleged to be in violation of investment protections found in investment treaties and investment law. They are additionally of interest in the context of the presentation and determination of future OPIC claims and decision making by other political risk insurance providers.
