History has proved that communism failed at many levels during the first global competition between the capitalist and socialist camps during the Cold War. As a result, the socialist camp was dissolved. China is one of the few communist countries to survive in the twenty-first century. The Chinese economy was on the verge of collapse in the 1970s but began to take off in the early 1980s, guided by the China model. China became the world's second largest economy in 2010 and has quickly expanded its enormous global market and political influence. The second global competition between the capitalist countries and China has started. The second global competition is in fact between the China model and the Washington Consensus. Will Western hegemonies end as the result of the second global competition? Will China be able to rewrite the international rules? Will the Chinese communist political system collapse during the competition? What should the West do to the China model? This book will explore the implications of the China model in the context of the second global competition and argues that the downturn of the China model and China's global expansion are the two sides of the same coin. The China model is losing its power but not broken. China would be able to become even stronger, if it could reshape the philosophical foundation of the China model. The future of Western hegemony will depend on how the West understands the China model and deals with it. This book addresses these aspects and more.
Will China–U.S. relations come back to the normal track? Does the confrontational approach work for China–US relations? This book argues that it is an unrealistic hope to bring China–US relations back to the so-called normal track because the great power competition will be a new normal of China–US relations and the USA will gain more from strategic competition than cooperation in the long run. This book shows that the strategy of “great power cooperation through competition” is more positive and constructive than the approaches of “peaceful coexist” and “maximum pressure.” This book does not intend to provide policy recommendations for governments to consider, but mainly to explain why the great power competition is inevitable and why it is necessary to continuously work with China in some areas through strategic competition. This book alarms the importance of understanding the nature of the Chinese Communist Party during the great power competition and aims to motivate both sides to revisit their foreign policy practice and come up with a better foreign policy strategy of handling China–US relations.
How China's political model could prove to be a viable alternative to Western democracy Westerners tend to divide the political world into "good" democracies and “bad” authoritarian regimes. But the Chinese political model does not fit neatly in either category. Over the past three decades, China has evolved a political system that can best be described as “political meritocracy.” The China Model seeks to understand the ideals and the reality of this unique political system. How do the ideals of political meritocracy set the standard for evaluating political progress (and regress) in China? How can China avoid the disadvantages of political meritocracy? And how can political meritocracy best be combined with democracy? Daniel Bell answers these questions and more. Opening with a critique of “one person, one vote” as a way of choosing top leaders, Bell argues that Chinese-style political meritocracy can help to remedy the key flaws of electoral democracy. He discusses the advantages and pitfalls of political meritocracy, distinguishes between different ways of combining meritocracy and democracy, and argues that China has evolved a model of democratic meritocracy that is morally desirable and politically stable. Bell summarizes and evaluates the “China model”—meritocracy at the top, experimentation in the middle, and democracy at the bottom—and its implications for the rest of the world. A timely and original book that will stir up interest and debate, The China Model looks at a political system that not only has had a long history in China, but could prove to be the most important political development of the twenty-first century.
The past two decades have witnessed far-reaching socioeconomic and political changes in Asia, such as the growing intraregional flows of capital, goods, people, and knowledge, the rise of China as the world’s second largest economy, and its increasing influence in Southeast Asia, intensified US–China confrontations in the global arena, and the onslaught of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Focusing on multidimensional interactions (including geopolitical and economic relationships, diaspora engagement, and knowledge exchange) between China and Southeast Asia, this book argues that an interwoven perspective of the political economy, transnational governance, and regional networks serves as an effective analytical framework for deciphering these transformations as well as their global and theoretical implications. Drawing upon a wide range of primary data and engaging with the latest interdisciplinary scholarship on contemporary Asia, this book’s thought-provoking and nuanced analyses will appeal to scholars and students in Chinese and Southeast Asian studies, international political economy, international relationships, ethnic and migration studies, and public governance.
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
Since the beginning of China's phenomenal rise in the international system, our knowledge of the country has grown rapidly. But those who have debated the China issue in policy circles mostly focus on the implications of China’s rise, often without a firm understanding of why the country is rising in the first place. Using an analytical framework which links China’s domestic political economy order and the global system, this book helps us to understand China’s rise and the China model more clearly. Indeed, unlike most other works that study the China model as a domestic political economy issue, it adopts an explicit international comparative perspective, comparing the Chinese model to others, such as the Washington Consensus and the Japan model. This comparison allows us to break down different components of the China model, and to show that while the Chinese Communist Party leadership part of the model is unique, other components such as export-led growth strategy or packaged aid programs are not. By focusing on the root cause of China's rise - namely the loop between the evolving China model and an evolving global governance structure – this book reveals the degree of compatibility between the country’s profit-driven domestic political economy system and the post-war global economic order, and in turn how and why China has been able to rise in the global system. The China Model and Global Political Economy makes a key contribution to theories of international relations, state development and modernization, and as such will appeal to students and scholars of Chinese politics, Chinese foreign policy, international political economy, development studies and international relations.
The impact of energy on global security and economy is clear and profound, and this is why in recent years energy security has become a source of concern to most countries. However, energy security means different things to different countries based on their geographic location, their endowment of resources their strategic and economic conditions. In this book, Gal Luft and Anne Korin with the help of twenty leading experts provide an overview of the world's energy system and its vulnerabilities that underlay growing concern over energy security. It hosts a debate about the feasibility of resource conflicts and covers issues such as the threat of terrorism to the global energy system, maritime security, the role of multinationals and non-state actors in energy security, the pathways to energy security through diversification of sources and the development of alternative energy sources. It delves into the various approaches selected producers, consumers and transit states have toward energy security and examines the domestic and foreign policy tradeoffs required to ensure safe and affordable energy supply. The explains the various pathways to energy security and the tradeoffs among them and demonstrates how all these factors can be integrated in a larger foreign and domestic policy framework. It also explores the future of nuclear power, the complex relations between energy security and environmental concerns and the role for decentralized energy as a way to enhance energy security.
