Read and Download eBook Full
Author: Patrick Leach
Publisher:
Published: 2006
Total Pages: 197
ISBN-13: 9780964793859
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDecision making 101 for executives. A solid overview of the key decision analysis concepts sprinkled with pearls of wisdom and wry humor. Explains the language of risk, uncertainty, and decision making.
Author: Ruth Murray-Webster
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2021-06-11
Total Pages: 124
ISBN-13: 1000393259
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book offers a practical insight to leaders who need to make good decisions in risky and important situations. The authors describe a process for making risk-intelligent decisions, explaining complex ideas simply, and mapping a route through the myriad interrelated influences when groups make decisions that matter. The approach puts the decision maker—you—at the center and explains how you can think and act differently to make better decisions more of the time. The book shows how to Determine the appropriate level of risk Make decisions in uncertain and turbulent conditions Understand how risks are perceived to identify them accurately Develop new behaviors to improve decision-making Making Risky and Important Decisions: A Leader’s Guide builds on earlier ground-breaking publications from these two recognized thought leaders. Their first book together, Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude, brought together the language of risk and risk-taking with the language of emotional intelligence and emotional literacy. Managing Group Risk Attitude followed, and focused on decision-making groups, creating new insights and frameworks. Both books are positioned as specialist textbooks, despite their relevance to real-world situations. A Short Guide to Risk Appetite brought together the concepts of risk appetite and risk attitude into one place for the first time, cutting through confusing terminology and confused thinking to create a practical way of understanding "how much risk is too much risk." This latest installment from Ruth Murray-Webster and David Hillson takes the breadth of their previous work, adds new insights and thinking, and distills it into a highly usable guide for hard-pressed leaders.
Author: Planning Planet
Publisher: GCATI
Published:
Total Pages: 110
ISBN-13: 1913805069
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Managing Risk and Opportunity Module is to introduce the tools, techniques and methodologies associated with risk and opportunity, that have been identified as being “best tested and proven” practices and which have been found to work on “most projects, most of the time”; provide a logical or rational sequence showing when those tools or techniques would normally and customarily be used and in selected instances, show how to use those tools/techniques and/or where to find additional information on how to use or apply them.
Author: Charles Yoe
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2019-01-30
Total Pages: 844
ISBN-13: 0429664893
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.
Author: Hussein K. Abdel-Aal
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2013-12-14
Total Pages: 488
ISBN-13: 1466506660
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book explains how to apply economic analysis to the evaluation of engineering challenges in the petroleum industry. Discussion progresses from an introduction to the industry, through principles and techniques of engineering economics, to the application of economic methods. Packed with real-world examples and case studies demonstrating how to calculate rate of return, discounted cash flow, payout period, and more, Petroleum Economics and Engineering, Third Edition assists petroleum engineers, chemical engineers, production workers, management, and executives in sound economic decision-making regarding the design, manufacture, and operation of oil and gas plants, equipment, and processes. The fully revised third edition is updated to reflect key advancements in petroleum technology and expanded to include chapters on middle stream operations, known as surface petroleum operations (SPO), and natural gas processing and fractionation. By looking globally at the hydrocarbon industry, the improved text offers the reader a more complete picture of the petroleum sector, which includes the global processes of exploration, production, refining, and transportation.
Author: Robert D. Brown III
Publisher: Apress
Published: 2018-03-01
Total Pages: 287
ISBN-13: 1484234952
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis tutorial teaches you how to use the statistical programming language R to develop a business case simulation and analysis. It presents a methodology for conducting business case analysis that minimizes decision delay by focusing stakeholders on what matters most and suggests pathways for minimizing the risk in strategic and capital allocation decisions. Business case analysis, often conducted in spreadsheets, exposes decision makers to additional risks that arise just from the use of the spreadsheet environment. R has become one of the most widely used tools for reproducible quantitative analysis, and analysts fluent in this language are in high demand. The R language, traditionally used for statistical analysis, provides a more explicit, flexible, and extensible environment than spreadsheets for conducting business case analysis. The main tutorial follows the case in which a chemical manufacturing company considers constructing a chemical reactor and production facility to bring a new compound to market. There are numerous uncertainties and risks involved, including the possibility that a competitor brings a similar product online. The company must determine the value of making the decision to move forward and where they might prioritize their attention to make a more informed and robust decision. While the example used is a chemical company, the analysis structure it presents can be applied to just about any business decision, from IT projects to new product development to commercial real estate. The supporting tutorials include the perspective of the founder of a professional service firm who wants to grow his business and a member of a strategic planning group in a biomedical device company who wants to know how much to budget in order to refine the quality of information about critical uncertainties that might affect the value of a chosen product development pathway. What You’ll Learn Set up a business case abstraction in an influence diagram to communicate the essence of the problem to other stakeholders Model the inherent uncertainties in the problem with Monte Carlo simulation using the R language Communicate the results graphically Draw appropriate insights from the results Develop creative decision strategies for thorough opportunity cost analysis Calculate the value of information on critical uncertainties between competing decision strategies to set the budget for deeper data analysis Construct appropriate information to satisfy the parameters for the Monte Carlo simulation when little or no empirical data are available Who This Book Is For Financial analysts, data practitioners, and risk/business professionals; also appropriate for graduate level finance, business, or data science students
Author: Clinton W. Brownley
Publisher: Business Expert Press
Published: 2013-03-28
Total Pages: 167
ISBN-13: 1606494538
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWhether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Author: Hussein K. Abdel-Aal
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2021-02-26
Total Pages: 307
ISBN-13: 1000346501
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEngineers seek solutions to problems, and the economic viability of each potential solution is normally considered along with the technical merits. This is typically true for the petroleum sector, which includes the global processes of exploration, production, refining, and transportation. Decisions on an investment in any oil or gas field development are made on the basis of its value, which is judged by a combination of a number of economic indicators. Economic Analysis of Oil and Gas Engineering Operations focuses on economic treatment of petroleum engineering operations and serves as a helpful resource for making practical and profitable decisions in oil and gas field development. Reflects major changes over the past decade or so in the oil and gas industry Provides thorough coverage of the use of economic analysis techniques in decision-making in petroleum-related projects Features real-world cases and applications of economic analysis of various engineering problems encountered in petroleum operations Includes principles applicable to other engineering disciplines This work will be of value to practicing engineers and industry professionals, managers, and executives working in the petroleum industry who have the responsibility of planning and decision-making, as well as advanced students in petroleum and chemical engineering studying engineering economics, petroleum economics and policy, project evaluation, and plant design.
Author: Ken Kasriel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2013-06-06
Total Pages: 389
ISBN-13: 1118537696
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPlease contact the authors at [email protected] for details of how to access the trial version of Crystal Ball, as well as the Excel and other files which are *not* part of the e-book version download. "This is a book no deal team should be without. It is a must for those involved in upstream oil and gas transactions, planning, budgeting, investment appraisal and portfolio management. Its step–by–step approach cuts through complexity, making it comprehensive and understandable by a wide range of users with a wide range of abilities. It can be used as a textbook, an introductory primer or as a handbook that you can dip in and out of or read cover to cover." —Michael Lynch-Bell, Senior Advisor, Oil & Gas, Ernst & Young LLP; ex-officio Chairman, UN Expert Group on Resource Classification In the upstream petroleum industry, it is the value of post–tax cashflows which matters most to companies, governments, investors, lenders, analysts, and advisors. Calculating these cashflows and understanding their “behavior,” however, is challenging, as the industry’s specialized fiscal systems can be complex, jargon–laden, and sometimes seem to be a “world of their own”. Upstream Petroleum Fiscal and Valuation Modeling in Excel: A Worked Examples Approach demystifies fiscal analysis which, unlike disciplines such as Earth sciences and engineering, can be learned from a book. Written in plain English for laymen and for experienced practitioners alike, it is a reader–friendly, clear, practical, step–by–step hands–on guide for both reference and self–paced study. The book does not catalogue the 100+ different petroleum fiscal regimes in use at the time of writing. Rather, drawing on the authors’ combined 48 years’ experience, it takes a more timeless, generic treatment, by covering the most common variants of royalties, taxation, production sharing arrangements, bonuses and abandonment funding , through a dual approach: first, showing how to model them in Excel , and then providing interactive exercises to prompt (and answer) questions that analyze impacts on cashflows. In addition to the main text, the book consists of over 120 Excel files (ranging from modular examples to full models) in Excel 2007 and 2003 formats; over 400 pages of supplementary PDF files; VBA features to enhance model functionality; and an introduction to risk modeling with exercises for the included trial version of Oracle’s Crystal Ball software. It offers both a wealth of content and models equal to or surpassing what is available from fiscal modeling courses costing several times more; and greater insights into underlying calculations than commercially available “black box” fiscal software. New US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules planned for 2013 will force petroleum companies to disclose more fiscal information on an individual country basis. This will make it more important than ever for analysts to understand how to model oil and gas terms and the potential impacts of the disclosed government payments on future oil and gas company profitability. Due to the heavy use of graphics and cross references used in this particular text, some readers might find that the printed book offers a more optimal reading experience than certain e-formats particularly with the Kindle eMobi format.
Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2017-01-04
Total Pages: 382
ISBN-13: 1119349834
DOWNLOAD EBOOKReality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands—in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger—and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.
