What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?

What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?

Author: Sajjid Chinoy

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-07

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1475533454

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We analyze the dramatic decline in India’s inflation over the last two years using an augmented Phillips Curve approach and quantify the role of different factors. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular perception, the direct role of lower oil prices in India’s disinflation was relatively modest given the limited pass-through into domestic prices. Instead, we find that inflation is a highly persistent process in India, reflecting very adaptive expectations and the backward looking nature of wage and support price-setting. As a consequence, we find that a moderation of expectations, both backward and forward, and a rationalization of Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), explain the bulk of the disinflation over the last two years.


Monetary Policy in India

Monetary Policy in India

Author: Chetan Ghate

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-11-25

Total Pages: 653

ISBN-13: 8132228405

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This book presents research that applies contemporary monetary theory and state-of-the-art econometric methods to the analysis of the monetary and financial aspects of the Indian economy and the impact of monetary policy on economic performance. Indian monetary policy has attracted significant attention from Indian and international macroeconomists over the last several years. Interest in how monetary policy influences economic performance and how monetary policy is conducted in India is growing. The prospects for further financial sector reform and ongoing inflation in India have sparked new interest in the role of money and monetary policy in India among economists, policy makers and students alike. The book should also interest economists outside India because it studies monetary economics in a major emerging market economy and makes advances in the analysis of how financial market imperfections and structural constraints influence the effects of monetary policy.


What is Responsible for India's Sharp Disinflation?

What is Responsible for India's Sharp Disinflation?

Author: Sajjid Chinoy

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We analyze the dramatic decline in India's inflation over the last two years using an augmented Phillips Curve approach and quantify the role of different factors. Our results suggest that, contrary to popular perception, the direct role of lower oil prices in India's disinflation was relatively modest given the limited pass-through into domestic prices. Instead, we find that inflation is a highly persistent process in India, reflecting very adaptive expectations and the backward looking nature of wage and support price-setting. As a consequence, we find that a moderation of expectations, both backward and forward, and a rationalization of Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), explain the bulk of the disinflation over the last two years.


OECD Economic Surveys: India 2017

OECD Economic Surveys: India 2017

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2017-02-28

Total Pages: 146

ISBN-13: 9264269355

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This 2017 OECD Economic Survey of India examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapters cover tax reform and regional development.


IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-30

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 1475544162

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The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.


Global Economic Prospects, January 2017

Global Economic Prospects, January 2017

Author: World Bank Group

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2017-03-01

Total Pages: 629

ISBN-13: 1464810176

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Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.


Welfare aspects of industrial markets

Welfare aspects of industrial markets

Author: A.P. Jacquemin

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 439

ISBN-13: 1461342317

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The present volume of essays on industrial organization, which are based on conferences held at Nijenrode and Brussels, differs considerably from its predecessor. Even more than in the first volume the essays demonstrate the broad scope of industrial organization analysis. Besides the traditional topics such as economies of scale, monopoly and competition policy, there are essays on methodology, on stagflation, and on the relationship between industrial struc ture and international trade and trade policies. The latter topics are of growing importance. The issue of restructuring industries and the question of whether free trade or some measure of protection is more appropriate are topics of increasing relevance today (and will no doubt continue to be in future years as well). The problem of persistent inflation which other essays address is also of major concern. Apart from being broad in scope and venturing into new fields, this volume is also controversial. Its central feature is a debate about welfare aspects. Here, more than in pure analysis, economists tend to entertain different points of view. One of the participants in the Nijenrode conference, Professor John Blair, who died in December 1976 and whom we honour as having been an active promoter of this kind of meeting, wrote to the editors shortly before his death to say that the first volume had succeeded very well in acquainting the reader with the results of empirical investigations, notably on trends and levels of concentration.


Understanding India’s Food Inflation

Understanding India’s Food Inflation

Author: Rahul Anand

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-01-05

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1513567888

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Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution of relative food inflation to headline CPI inflation. It concludes that in the absence of a stronger food supply growth response, food inflation may exceed non-food inflation by 21⁄2–3 percentage points per year. The sustainability of a long-term inflation target of 4 percent under India’s recently-adopted flexible inflation targeting framework will depend on enhancing food supply, agricultural market-based pricing, and reducing price distortions. A well-designed cereal buffer stock liquidation policy could also help mitigate food inflation volatility.