"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
The technological revolution has reached around the world, with important consequences for business, government, and the labor market. Computer-aided design, telecommunications, and other developments are allowing small players to compete with traditional giants in manufacturing and other fields. In this volume, 16 engineering and industrial experts representing eight countries discuss the growth of technological advances and their impact on specific industries and regions of the world. From various perspectives, these distinguished commentators describe the practical aspects of technology's reach into business and trade.
Measuring the Digital Transformation: A Roadmap for the Future provides new insights into the state of the digital transformation by mapping indicators across a range of areas – from education and innovation, to trade and economic and social outcomes – against current digital policy issues, as presented in Going Digital: Shaping Policies, Improving Lives.
Growth in a Time of Change: Global and Country Perspectives on a New Agenda is the first of a two-book research project that addresses new issues and challenges for economic growth arising from ongoing significant change in the world economy, focusing especially on technological transformation. The project is a collaboration between the Brookings Institution and the Korea Development Institute. Part I of the book looks at key elements of change from a global perspective. It analyzes how technological change, shifts in investment, and demographic transition are affecting potential economic growth globally and across major groups of economies. The contributors explore possible scenarios for the global economy as the digital revolution drives rapid technological change, including impacts on growth, jobs, income distribution, trade balances, and capital flows. Technology is changing the global configuration of comparative advantage and globalization increasingly has a digital dimension. The implications of these developments for the future of sectors such as manufacturing and for international trade are assessed. Part II of the book addresses new issues in the growth agenda from the perspective of an individual major economy: South Korea. The chapters in this section analyze how macroeconomic developments and technological change are influencing the behavior of households and firms in terms of their decisions to consume, save, and invest. Rising income and wealth inequalities are a major concern globally. Against this backdrop, trends in the labor income share and wage inequalities in South Korea are analyzed in terms of the role played by technology, industrial concentration, shifts in labor demand and supply, and other factors. Throughout the book, the contributors, in their analysis of both global and Korea-specific trends and prospects, place emphasis on drawing implications for policy.
The Information and Communications for Development series looks in depth at how information and communications technologies are affecting economic growth in developing countries. This new report, the fourth in the series, examines the topic of data-driven development, or how better information makes for better policies. The objective is to assist developing-country firms and governments in unlocking the value of the data they hold for better service delivery and decision making and to empower individuals to take more control of their personal data. We are undoubtedly experiencing a data revolution in which our ability to generate, process, and utilize information has been magnified many times over by the machines that we increasingly rely upon. This report is about how the data revolution is changing the behavior of governments, individuals, and firms and how these changes affect the nature of development: economic, social, and cultural. How can governments extract value from data to improve service delivery in the same way that private companies have learned to do for profit? Is it feasible for individuals to take ownership of their own data and to use it to improve their livelihoods and quality of life? Can developing-country firms compete with the internet majors on their own turf and be even more innovative in their use of data to serve local customers better? Though the report is aimed primarily at government policy makers, it also has great relevance for individuals concerned about how their personal data is used and how the data revolution might affect their future job prospects. For private sector firms, particularly those in developing countries, the report suggests how they might expand their markets and improve their competitive edge. For development professionals, the report provides guidance on how they might use data more creatively to tackle long-standing global challenges, such as eliminating extreme poverty, promoting shared prosperity, or mitigating the effects of climate change. The report's chapters explore different themes associated with the supply of data, the technology underlying it, and the demand for it. An overview chapter focuses on government use of data and presentation of definitions. Part I of the report then looks at the "supply side" of the data sector, with chapters on data connectivity and capacity (where data comes from, how it is stored, and where it goes) and data technology (specifically big data analytics and artificial intelligence) and how this is contributing to development. Part II looks at the sector's "demand side," with a chapter on people's use of data and another that examines how firms use digital platforms in the data economy and how that contributes to competitiveness. Part III brings together the policy implications for developing-country stakeholders, with a chapter considering government policies for data, including data protection and privacy. A closing Data Notes appendix looks at statistical indicators associated with the use of data and presents the 2018 update of the Digital Adoption Index (DAI), a composite indicator introduced in the 2016 World Development Report: Digital Dividends.
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges. The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people. Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy -- often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents. But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents. What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China -- Tianjin -- will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map. What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life -- facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
Science and Technology Policy theme is a component of Encyclopedia of Technology, Information, and Systems Management Resources in the global Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), which is an integrated compendium of twenty one Encyclopedias. Science and technology policy covers all the public sector measures designed for the creation, funding, support, and mobilization of scientific and technological resources. The content of the Theme on Science and technology policy provides the essential aspects and a myriad of issues of great relevance to our world such as: Science and Technology Policy; International Dimensions of Science and Technology Policy; The Innovation System; The Policy Making Process in Science and Technology; Regional Perspectives: A New Scenario for Science and Technology Policies in the Developed and Developing World . These two volumes are aimed at the following five major target audiences: University and College students Educators, Professional practitioners, Research personnel and Policy analysts, managers, and decision makers and NGOs
Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."
