Trade Policy Toward Supply Chains After the Great Recession

Trade Policy Toward Supply Chains After the Great Recession

Author: Chad Philips Bown

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13:

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How does trade policy treat intermediate inputs relative to other imported products? Slow economic and trade growth during the recovery from the Great Recession, as well as recent political developments in the United Kingdom and United States, pose a threat to cross-border supply chains and have thus brought this question to the forefront of policy circles. This paper investigates by examining new and detailed data on Group of 20 (G20) trade policy use through 2016, with a special emphasis on changes in policymaking behavior since 2010. First, there is no evidence that the G20 economies made significant changes to their applied import tariffs during this period. However, there has been a modest increase in import protection arising through other policy instruments of note such as the temporary trade barriers (TTBs) of antidumping, countervailing duties and safeguards. More importantly, there is evidence of changes in how countries have applied their TTBs. TTBs were increasingly imposed on imports not only from China, but also on imports from other countries, reversing a post-2001 trend. Furthermore, TTB protection has moved away from imports of final goods and toward imports of intermediate inputs. These shifts in policy have several potential contributing causes as well as economic consequences, including for cross-border supply chains.


The Great Recession and Import Protection

The Great Recession and Import Protection

Author: Chad P. Bown

Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 469

ISBN-13: 9781907142383

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This volume provides empirical details of how the import protection landscape changed alongside the events of the 2008-9 economic crisis.


The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis

The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis

Author: Richard E. Baldwin

Publisher:

Published: 2011-03

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13: 9781907142239

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The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.


U.S. Trade and Investment Policy

U.S. Trade and Investment Policy

Author: Andrew H. Card

Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 135

ISBN-13: 0876094418

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From American master Ward Just, returning to his trademark territory of "Forgetfulness "and "The Weather in Berlin," an evocative portrait of diplomacy and desire set against the backdrop of America's first lost war


Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy

Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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How do global supply chain linkages modify countries' incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages empirically important determinants of trade policy? To address these questions, we introduce supply chain linkages into a workhorse terms-of-trade model of trade policy with political economy. Theory predicts that discretionary final goods tariffs will be decreasing in the domestic content of foreign-produced final goods. Provided foreign political interests are not too strong, final goods tariffs will also be decreasing in the foreign content of domestically-produced final goods. We test these predictions using newly assembled data on bilateral applied tariffs, temporary trade barriers, and value-added contents for 14 major economies over the 1995-2009 period. We find strong support for the empirical predictions of the model. Our results imply that global supply chains matter for trade policy, both in principle and in practice.


Essays on Trade Policy with Supply Chains

Essays on Trade Policy with Supply Chains

Author: Ayako Obashi

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 130

ISBN-13:

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The first chapter entitled ``Trade Policy and Production Location with Cross-Border Unbundling'' sheds new light on the trade policy implications of production relocation by featuring the effects of export restrictions on intermediate inputs on the downstream final-good producer's location and sourcing decision. The chapter revisits governments' incentives to use trade policies in a theoretical framework considering the firm's global production operation subject to a combination of trade costs, inclusive of trade barriers, imposed on different stages of production process. An interrelationship between trade policies through production linkage gives rise to a novel, assembly-relocation motive for policy intervention against trade in intermediates. A government may use an export tax on intermediates as a way to attract the final assembly so that conditional on the assembly relocation it can maximize its ability to manipulate the international terms of trade. The second chapter entitled ``Trade Agreements with Cross-Border Unbundling'' and the third chapter entitled ``Revisiting Profit-Shifting Trade Policy Intervention under Cross-Border Unbundling'' revisit the purpose and design of trade agreements in the presence of cross-border unbundling of production. The second chapter features an interrelationship among market-clearing prices of final goods and the associated domestic and imported intermediates due to their dependence on trade policies through production linkage. There arises a local price externality, and a government uses a combination of trade policies to manipulate the local equilibrium price for domestically-sourced intermediates in the trading partner country to its advantage. The third chapter focuses on the trade policy implications of international profit-shifting, and detects another form of local price externality. Here I show that a government unilaterally chooses an inefficient mix of trade policies on final goods and the associated intermediates to manipulate its local prices so as to induce international profit-shifting in its favor. Both chapters call for the potential of trade agreements beyond the conventional market-access argument associated with the terms-of-trade theory. To achieve globally efficient outcomes through trade agreements, I propose to specify the market access using the trade-weighted version of terms of trade so that governments effectively coordinate in changing the value-added created from trade within production chains in a reciprocal manner.


World Development Report 2020

World Development Report 2020

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2019-11-19

Total Pages: 511

ISBN-13: 1464814953

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Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.


Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19

Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19

Author: Paul Brenton

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2022-03-01

Total Pages: 217

ISBN-13: 1464818223

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Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries. This book examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The report reviews previous crises and what these tell us about the resilience of GVC firms to shocks. It examines the observed impact of COVID-19 on trade during the sharp global recession of 2020. It summarizes discussions with GVC firms on the impacts of, and their responses to, the COVID shock. GVCs showed surprising resilience, but the rapid recovery raised new issues with supply chains. The book then explores simulations from a global economic model of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on developing countries and other key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, increasing trade restrictions and policy responses to global warming. The analysis shows that while there are risks associated with GVCs, especially those concentrated around key nodes and where opportunities to find alternative suppliers or buyers are limited, there are mechanisms by which GVCs maintain trade relationships during a crisis, paving the way for a strong trade-led recovery. Measures are identified that can enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries. This report finds that policies that maintain and enhance trade can contribute toward crisis management and recovery. Attempts to reshore production would make all countries worse off, including those that implement them, and could drive 52 million people, mainly in Africa, into extreme poverty. Measures to meet climate change commitments will have more profound impacts, leading to a shift away from carbon-intensive GVCs, while new opportunities for trade will arise in GVCs that are less carbon intensive.


Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy

Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy

Author: Emily J. Blanchard

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13:

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How do global supply chain linkages modify countries' incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages empirically important determinants of trade policy? To address these questions, this paper introduces supply chain linkages into a workhorse terms-of-trade model of trade policy with political economy. Theory predicts that discretionary final goods tariffs will be decreasing in the domestic content of foreign-produced final goods. Provided foreign political interests are not too strong, final goods tariffs will also be decreasing in the foreign content of domestically-produced final goods. The paper tests these predictions using newly assembled data on bilateral applied tariffs, temporary trade barriers, and value-added contents for 14 major economies over the 1995-2009 period. There is strong support for the empirical predictions of the model. The results imply that global supply chains matter for trade policy, both in principle and in practice.