Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Dynamic Factor Models

Dynamic Factor Models

Author: Siem Jan Koopman

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2016-01-08

Total Pages: 685

ISBN-13: 1785603523

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This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.


A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

Author: Emanuel Kopp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-15

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1484363671

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In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.


The Great Inflation

The Great Inflation

Author: Michael D. Bordo

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-06-28

Total Pages: 545

ISBN-13: 0226066959

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Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.


Term Structure of Interest Rates

Term Structure of Interest Rates

Author: Burton Gordon Malkiel

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2015-12-08

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 1400879787

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Can expectations alone explain the yield differentials among bonds of different maturities? To what extend do attitudes toward risk and transactions costs influence the behavior of bond investors? Is it possible for the Federal Reserve to "twist" the interest-rate structure in accordance with its policy objectives? These are among the questions treated. Originally published in 1966. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.


Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates

Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates

Author: Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1994-09-01

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13: 1451853750

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The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.


Negative Interest Rates

Negative Interest Rates

Author: Luís Brandão Marques

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 1513570080

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This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.


The Theory of Interest

The Theory of Interest

Author: Friedrich Lutz

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-09-04

Total Pages: 457

ISBN-13: 1351472836

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This book contains a critical analysis of the main theories of interest which have been published since B÷hm-Bawerk. The last part of the book gives an account of the author's own theory.The first part, which deals with the history of doctrines, discusses the theories of B÷hm-Bawerk, Wicksell, Akerman, and Hayek, authors who proceed from the assumption of stationary state.The second group of authors consists of Walras, Irving Fisher, and F. H. Knight, who assume a progressive economy in which net saving and investment occur.The third group of authors are those who stress the monetary factor. The central figure of this part is Keynes; but other authors, among them Patinkin, are also dealt with. The theories on the term structure of interest rates are discussed in the last part of the history of doctrines. The author's own theory deals with the problem of the interest rate first in terms of partial equilibrium analysis, whereby particular attention is paid to the influence of the banking system on the structure of interest rates.In the final chapter the author proceeds to expound the interest theory in the framework of general equilibrium analysis. A mathematical appendix concludes this book.Friedrich A. Lutz (1901-1975) taught economics at Princeton University for fifteen years before becoming Professor of Economics at the University of Zurich. He was also the president of the Mont Pelerin Society from 1964-1967.