In an age where companies and financial institutions are keenly focused on managing the financial risk of their operations, the implementation of quantitative methods and models has been of tremendous help. Tools such as VaR, credit VaR, risk-adjusted returns, and scenario analyses have given institutions the means to quantify and understand their risk profiles. However, the focus on quantitative risk management, while important, can sometimes be over-emphasized--at the expense of logic and experience. At its core, the successful management of risk is still largely an "art." The Simple Rules of Risk takes a fresh look at the qualitative aspects of risk management. It also considers how qualitative approaches can make optimal use of the mathematical aspects of risk management to create the most effective framework possible.
From Ron Dembo, advisor to leading banks and hedge funds, and Daniel Stoffman, co-author of the revolutionary bestseller Boom, Bust and Echo, Upside, Downside is an accessible guide to the biggest danger facing investors in an increasingly uncertain world: financial risk. As a generation of investors knows, financial markets are vulnerable to events – from terrorist attacks to epidemics – that are guaranteed to occur, yet impossible to predict. As markets become more complex and intertwined, investors feel increasingly unsure: how can you safeguard your financial prospects when you can’t know what the future will look like? Upside, Downside is a toolbox to protect yourself from financial risk. Co-authored by a leading financial journalist and a pioneer in the field of risk management who advises the world’s major banks, it gives investors access for the first time to the most advanced risk management strategies available, distilled into three simple rules for managing risk. These rules – Knowing What You Own, Using Multiple Scenarios, and Anticipating Regret – will allow you to take control of your financial future. You can’t banish all the dangers of the world, but Upside, Downside will give you the skills to manage them.
Globalization Hype Has Obscured a Few Basic Truths-that political stability and economic growth are usually determined on the local level, and that they're most affected by local institutions, local leadership, and other such factors. Risk Rules shows that globalization (and events like the recent overthrow of long-time leaders in Egypt and Tunis; the global recession triggered by the U.S. credit crisis in 2008; and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) makes understanding the political economies of different countries more important than ever. This book analyzes the fifteen main principles of how countries work, providing a powerful, intuitive framework for understanding international developments. Doing globalization right means understanding local economic, cultural, and political realties. This truth holds for companies, policymakers, small investors, voters, and everyone whose lives and finances are affected by distant world events. Book jacket.
Do you want to win in the game of Risk? Have you always wanted to win against your cousin in the game of Risk? Do you feel frustrated when they gang up on you and you cannot do much about it? Or perhaps you made a reputation for yourself as the greatest Risk player ever, only to lose in the next game and the one after that! Read Total Diplomacy. This book aims to teach you how to beat them all in your own sweet way. But that's not all. Learn how to use diplomacy effectively to get what you want in life. There is a lot to learn from history and its great leaders. You will see how you can apply this knowledge to negotiate more successfully and be in control of people. You will learn the art if influence and persuasion and will be able to apply it immediately to your Risk games. Any complex system can be exploited by its users. This book is not just about Risk or use of strategy in games. It aims to enhance your personal skills too. * The best tactics and strategies to use in Risk* How to learn by example* How to understand a player's psychology* How to debate with people and influence them* When it is wise to break a deal or an alliance* How to control your emotions and exploit others' weaknesses* The best strategies to use if you are playing repeatedly against the same players* How to be deceptive and how to recognise deceptive behaviour* The best online strategies* How to negotiate successfully and make cunning deals
We must take risks if we are to grow personally and professionally. Risks are a part of a fully-lived life. But in the commotion of today's fast-paced, technology-driven world, people have become disconnected from the wise counsel of their inner resources, hampering their ability to make meaningful choices. Consequently, risks are increasingly being taken in an impulsive, haphazard, and often reckless way. In Right Risk, Bill Treasurer draws on the experiences and insights of successful risk-takers (including his own experiences as a daredevil high diver) to detail ten principles that readers can use to take risks with greater intelligence and confidence. Right Risk is about taking more deliberate and intentional risks in an increasingly complex world. It aims to answer such questions as: How do I know which risks to take and which to avoid? How do I balance the need to take more risks with the need to preserve my safety? How do I muster up the courage to take risks when it is so much easier not to? How do I confront all those people who keep telling me what a mistake it would be to take the risk? And, most importantly, How do I make risk-taking less of an anxiety-provoking experience? Right Risk will help readers take risks with greater discipline, focus, and maturity-to confidently face life's challenges and take advantage of life's opportunities.
A fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk. Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. But what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? This entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. Gerd Gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. He shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives. 'Gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous' Steven Pinker 'Catchily optimistic and slyly funny' Guardian Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.
A persuasive and eye-opening look at the importance of embracing risk in our working lives—and how to use it to achieve lifelong career success Some of us relish the chance to fly without a net, others . . . not so much. But no matter how adventurous we might be in our personal lives, most of us are wary of allowing risk into our careers. With an economy in constant flux and a job market in which uncertainty is the only constant, stepping outside one’s comfort zone can feel dangerous. But as the findings of this eye-opening and urgent book attest, the avoidance of risk might pose the greatest danger of all to our career prospects. In Risk/Reward, trend-spotter and career guru Anne Kreamer makes the compelling case that embracing risk is essential to managing a twenty-first-century career. Risk-taking isn’t just for entrepreneurs, nor does it require working on a figurative tightrope. Rather, Kreamer says, conscious, consistent, and modest risk-taking can help us become more able to recognize opportunity when it appears, and more likely to seize the chance to make the right change at the right moment. Risk/Reward presents a framework for making the most of today’s ever-evolving workplace and turning risk-taking into a daily practice. Using proprietary data from three national studies about the American worker, Kreamer explores the importance of career risk-taking through profiles of four Risk/Reward personality types: Pioneers, Thinkers, Defenders, and Drifters. She presents a Risk/Reward Matrix that anyone can use to identify his or her own innate risk threshold, and she identifies constructive ways to implement risk in everyday situations—from initiating an uncomfortable conversation with a boss to sharing out-of-the-box ideas with colleagues or constructively challenging long-held practices in an organization. Peppered throughout Risk/Reward are insights and hard-won wisdom from notable achievers such as bestselling author Anna Quindlen, journalist Jane Pauley, CNBC financial maven Jim Cramer, thought leader Po Bronson, and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. Timely and insightful, Risk/Reward is a unique blend of practical and inspirational wisdom that even the most risk-averse person can harness on the path toward success and fulfillment. Praise for Anne Kreamer’s It’s Always Personal: Navigating Emotion in the New Workplace “A stimulating read bolstered by . . . some of the best recent work on emotional intelligence and the science of happiness.”—The Wall Street Journal “So what should be the rules and boundaries for showing how you feel while you work? That’s a question asked and answered in Anne Kreamer’s fascinating . . . look at an issue that rarely gets discussed.”—The Washington Post “Finally, someone is willing to unpack the morass of anger, anxiety, sadness, and joy that drives the workday. . . . [Kreamer] has hit the ‘It’s about time!’ button.”—Elle “[A] lively, well-researched exploration of emotions on the job.”—Oprah.com “Explores how to be true to your ‘emotional flashpoints—anger, fear, anxiety, empathy, happiness and crying’—without sabotaging your career.”—The New York Times Book Review
Too many laws, too many lawyers--that's the necessary consequence of a complex society, or so conventional wisdom has it. Countless pundits insist that any call for legal simplification smacks of nostalgia, sentimentality, or naivete. But the conventional view, the noted legal scholar Richard Epstein tells us, has it exactly backward. The richer texture of modern society allows for more individual freedom and choice. And it allows us to organize a comprehensive legal order capable of meeting the technological and social challenges of today on the basis of just six core principles. In this book, Epstein demonstrates how. The first four rules, which regulate human interactions in ordinary social life, concern the autonomy of the individual, property, contract, and tort. Taken together these rules establish and protect consistent entitlements over all resources, both human and natural. These rules are backstopped by two more rules that permit forced exchanges on payment of just compensation when private or public necessity so dictates. Epstein then uses these six building blocks to clarify many intractable problems in the modern legal landscape. His discussion of employment contracts explains the hidden virtues of contracts at will and exposes the crippling weaknesses of laws regarding collective bargaining, unjust dismissal, employer discrimination, and comparable worth. And his analysis shows how laws governing liability for products and professional services, corporate transactions, and environmental protection have generated unnecessary social strife and economic dislocation by violating these basic principles. Simple Rules for a Complex World offers a sophisticated agenda for comprehensive social reform that undoes much of the mischief of the modern regulatory state. At a time when most Americans have come to distrust and fear government at all levels, Epstein shows how a consistent application of economic and political theory allows us to steer a middle path between too much and too little.
The evidence continues to grow that the effective management of risk is the very kernel of successful project management. Its absence frequently leaves project sponsors lamenting missed objectives and shareholders coming to terms with an organisation’s poor bottom line performance. Dr Robert Chapman's The Rules of Project Risk Management stands out from other risk management texts because it provides very practical guidance, supported by numerous mini case studies, many of which have attracted considerable publicity. The book brings to life both the benefits of project risk management when effectively applied and the ramifications when it is misunderstood or receives scant attention. The structure of the book is based on International Standard ISO 31000 seen through the lens of general systems theory - where projects are undertaken by organisations which have an external context and internal sub-systems. A project system is seen to be composed of seven key subject areas. Practical short ‘rules’ or implementation guidelines, written in an engaging style, are offered to support each of these subject areas and aid quick assimilation of key risk management messages. Each rule focuses on a specific aspect of effective risk management which warrants attention in its own right. Taken together the rules will provide those implementing projects with the building blocks to secure a project’s objectives. They have been drawn from a wealth of experience gained from applying risk management practices across multiple industries from Europe to Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
