Applied probability is a broad research area that is of interest to scientists in diverse disciplines in science and technology, including: anthropology, biology, communication theory, economics, epidemiology, finance, geography, linguistics, medicine, meteorology, operations research, psychology, quality control, sociology, and statistics. Recent Advances in Applied Probability is a collection of survey articles that bring together the work of leading researchers in applied probability to present current research advances in this important area. This volume will be of interest to graduate students and researchers whose research is closely connected to probability modelling and their applications. It is suitable for one semester graduate level research seminar in applied probability.
Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managers Watch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.
Principles of Financial Engineering, Third Edition, is a highly acclaimed text on the fast-paced and complex subject of financial engineering. This updated edition describes the "engineering" elements of financial engineering instead of the mathematics underlying it. It shows how to use financial tools to accomplish a goal rather than describing the tools themselves. It lays emphasis on the engineering aspects of derivatives (how to create them) rather than their pricing (how they act) in relation to other instruments, the financial markets, and financial market practices. This volume explains ways to create financial tools and how the tools work together to achieve specific goals. Applications are illustrated using real-world examples. It presents three new chapters on financial engineering in topics ranging from commodity markets to financial engineering applications in hedge fund strategies, correlation swaps, structural models of default, capital structure arbitrage, contingent convertibles, and how to incorporate counterparty risk into derivatives pricing. Poised midway between intuition, actual events, and financial mathematics, this book can be used to solve problems in risk management, taxation, regulation, and above all, pricing. A solutions manual enhances the text by presenting additional cases and solutions to exercises. This latest edition of Principles of Financial Engineering is ideal for financial engineers, quantitative analysts in banks and investment houses, and other financial industry professionals. It is also highly recommended to graduate students in financial engineering and financial mathematics programs. - The Third Edition presents three new chapters on financial engineering in commodity markets, financial engineering applications in hedge fund strategies, correlation swaps, structural models of default, capital structure arbitrage, contingent convertibles and how to incorporate counterparty risk into derivatives pricing, among other topics - Additions, clarifications, and illustrations throughout the volume show these instruments at work instead of explaining how they should act - The solutions manual enhances the text by presenting additional cases and solutions to exercises
This book offers recent advances in the theory of implied volatility and refined semiparametric estimation strategies and dimension reduction methods for functional surfaces. The first part is devoted to smile-consistent pricing approaches. The second part covers estimation techniques that are natural candidates to meet the challenges in implied volatility surfaces. Empirical investigations, simulations, and pictures illustrate the concepts.
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
