The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits
The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

Author: Robert J. Barro

Publisher: Kingston, Ont. : Institute for Economic Research, Queen's University

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 9783925357558

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Persistent budget deficits have increased economists' interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy. This paper develops the Ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models. The discussion considers from major theoretical objections to Ricardian equivalence-finite lifetimes, imperfect capital markets, uncertainty about future taxes and incomes, and the distorting effects of taxation Then the paper considers empirical evidence on interest rates, consumption and saving, and current-account deficits. The conclusion is that the Ricardian approach is a useful first-order approximation, and that this approach will probably become the benchwork model for assessing fiscal policy.

Do Deficits Matter?
Do Deficits Matter?

Author: Daniel Shaviro

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 1997-05

Total Pages: 362

ISBN-13: 9780226751122

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Do deficits matter? Yes and no, says Daniel Shaviro in this political and economic study. Yes, because fiscal policy affects generational distribution, national saving, and the level of government spending. And no, because the deficit is an inaccurate measure with little economic content. This book provides an invaluable guide for anyone wanting to know exactly what is at stake for Americans in this ongoing debate. "[An] excellent, comprehensive, and illuminating book. Its analysis, deftly integrating considerations of economics, law, politics, and philosophy, brings the issues of 'balanced budgets,' national saving, and intergenerational equity out of the area of religious crusades and into an arena of reason. . . . A magnificent, judicious, and balanced treatment. It should be read and studied not just by specialists in fiscal policy but by all those in the economic and political community."—Robert Eisner, Journal of Economic Literature "Shaviro's history, economics, and political analysis are right on the mark. For all readers."—Library Journal

The Political Economy of Budget Deficits
The Political Economy of Budget Deficits

Author: Mr.Alberto Alesina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1994-08-01

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1451850689

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This paper provides a critical survey of the literature on politico-institutional determinants of the government budget. We organize our discussion around two questions: Why did certain OECD countries, but not others, accumulate large public debts? Why did these fiscal imbalances appear in the last 20 years rather than before? We begin by discussing the “tax smoothing” model and conclude that this approach alone cannot provide complete answers to these questions. We will then proceed to a discussion of political economy models, which we organize in six groups: (i) models based upon opportunistic policymakers and naive voters with “fiscal illusion;” (ii) models of intergenerational redistributions; (iii) models of debt as a strategic variable, linking the current government with the next one; (iv) models of coalition governments; (v) models of geographically dispersed interests; and (vi) models emphasizing the effects of budgetary institutions. We conclude by briefly discussing policy implications.

IMF Staff papers
IMF Staff papers

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1988-01-01

Total Pages: 228

ISBN-13: 1451956770

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A central proposition regarding effects of different mechanisms of fi-nancing public expenditures is that, under specific circumstances, it makes no difference to the level of aggregate demand if the government finances its outlays by debt or taxation. This so-called Ricardian equivalence states that, for a given expenditure path, substitution of debt for taxes does not affect private sector wealth and consumption. This paper provides a model illustrating the implications of Ricardian equivalence, surveys the litera-ture, considers effects of relaxing the basic assumptions, provides a frame-work to study implications of various extensions, and critically reviews recent empirical work on Ricardian equivalence.

How Real is the Federal Deficit?
How Real is the Federal Deficit?

Author: Robert Eisner

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2010-05-11

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 1439138591

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Eisner argues that the federal deficit as currently measured is inaccurate and misleading. When inflation is properly accounted for, he points out, a dramatically different picture of the deficit occurs. In light of these new deficit figures, Eisner challenges current eco nomic theory and interpretations of our recent past. He finds that the deficit has not been as large as recently measured and that efforts to reduce the deficit may do more harm than good. This book will spark serious debate among economists and policymakers. The clarity of its arguments and strength of its evidence are convincing. Strongly recommended for academic and large public libraries. Richard C. Schim ing, Economics Dept., Mankato State Univ., Minn. Copyright 1986 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Fiscal Deficits and Inflation
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation

Author: Mr.Luis Catão

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-04-01

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1451848706

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Macroeconomic theory postulates that fiscal deficits cause inflation. Yet empirical research has had limited success in uncovering this relationship. This paper reexamines the issue in light of broader data and a new modeling approach that incorporates two key features of the theory. Unlike previous studies, we model inflation as nonlinearly related to fiscal deficits through the inflation tax base and estimate this relationship as intrinsically dynamic, using panel techniques that explicitly distinguish between short- and long-run effects of fiscal deficits. Results spanning 107 countries over 1960-2001 show a strong positive association between deficits and inflation among high-inflation and developing country groups, but not among low-inflation advanced economies.

Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis [computer File]
Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis [computer File]

Author: Michel Normandin

Publisher: Research Center on Employment and Economic Fluctuations, Université du Québec à Montréal = Centre de recherche sur l'emploi et les fluctuations économiques, Université du Québec à Montréal

Published: 2000*

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and budget deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model tests the twin deficits hypothesis (i.e., there is a positive relationship between the deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e., there is no link between the deficits). This model also implies that consumers forecast future budget deficits using (at least) the history of the two deficits. This implication is used to derive time series restrictions, which are testable for given consumers' planning horizons. For the relevant horizon, the response of the external deficit to an increase in the budget deficit is computed. For the Canadian and the U.S. economies, the relevant horizons can be as long as 83 years. However, given the persistence of the budget deficits, these horizons produce responses that are statistically significant. These findings reconcile the mixed results obtained in previous analyses.

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity
The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity

Author: Richard Hemming

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-12

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13:

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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.

Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience
Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience

Author: C. Hooy

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Published: 2013-08-23

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781137266606

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Emerging Markets and Financial Resilience presents a picture of finance research. The issue of financial resilience in emerging markets is apt and timely as emerging countries are faced with the challenge of finding ways of sustaining their current trajectory in shaping the global financial architecture to ensure sustainable growth.

Public Debt
Public Debt

Author: Giuseppe Eusepi

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2017-06-30

Total Pages: 285

ISBN-13: 1786438046

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Over the past decades, economists have witnessed with growing uneasiness their failure to explain the ballooning of public debt in most countries. This book provides an alternative orientation that explains why concepts of public debt that are relevant for authoritarian regimes are not relevant for democratic regimes. Using methodological individualism and micro-economics, this book overcomes flaws inherent in the standard macro approach, according to which governments manipulate public debt to promote systemic stability. This unique analysis is grounded in the writings of Antonio de Viti de Marco, injecting current analytical contributions and formulations into the framework to offer a forthright insight into public debt and political economy.