The Return of High Inflation
The Return of High Inflation

Author: Wolfgang Hammes

Publisher:

Published: 2016-04

Total Pages: 366

ISBN-13: 9781944614003

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This book is about the NEXT financial crisis. A crisis, that - according to the author - will result from an unexpected return of high inflation and rising interest rates. The author explains the risks of such an event, describes analogies from the past, and offers numerous paradigms, concepts, and ideas that may help companies and individuals to turn inflation risks into opportunities. Dr. Hammes was one of the first experts who foresaw the last financial crisis. As early as 2000, Dr. Hammes warned publicly that a major financial crisis was unavoidable if risk management deficiencies in the financial industry remained unaddressed. In his new book, Dr. Hammes warns of an even more serious crisis caused by an unprecedented state of collective unpreparedness regarding inflation risks. A return of high inflation to the developed world should not surprise us. Judging from historical analogies, inflation is a likely outcome of the economic malaise we are in and the policies we have chosen. Irresponsible fiscal behavior, excessive levels of government and private sector debt, and ultra-loose monetary policies are very likely to be followed by a period of excessive inflation. While we cannot exactly time the occurrence of such an inflation risk event, we can quite well assess its general probability of occurrence. The vast majority of companies and individuals are not prepared to deal with a return of high inflation. We are in a state of collective unpreparedness. Also, there is very little practical research out there that could help managers and individuals prepare for such a risk event. Even worse, our modern economic and financial systems and processes in the developed world are based on the assumption of low inflation. They have never been stress-tested for a different scenario. Inflation management requires a different set of skills than those taught to us in western business schools. Reading this book should be the start of an important journey to better understand the risks of high inflation and how they impact your company and your personal life. Maybe the journey will take you one step further and enable you to turn inflation risks into a big opportunity as some best practice examples did during past inflation periods. We are now at a stage in history when the economic, fiscal, financial, and social situation in many developed countries resembles terrifying parallels to past periods of history prior to major outbreaks of high inflation. At the moment, a wide range of inflation strategies is available to companies and individuals who take inflation risks seriously. Many of these ideas and concepts are discussed in this book. Therefore, the author's recommendation is simple: prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Do not base important risk management strategies on hope and gamble that everything will be fine. The price for being wrong is extremely high when it comes to inflation risks.

The Economics of High Inflation
The Economics of High Inflation

Author: Paul Beckerman

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1991-11-13

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13: 1349217131

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This book describes the complex of economic processes which sustains inflationary pressure in nations with severe inflation problems. Paul Beckerman uses an innovative approach to study the strategies inhabitants of economies with lengthy inflation experience use to maintain their purchasing power despite inflation. He examines how these tactics function as 'feedback mechanisms', economic processes by which inflation in any given time period generates inflationary pressure in subsequent periods, and how they complicate the efforts of policy-makers to achieve stabilization.

The Great Inflation
The Great Inflation

Author: Michael D. Bordo

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-06-28

Total Pages: 545

ISBN-13: 0226066959

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Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Author: Jongrim Ha

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2019-02-24

Total Pages: 524

ISBN-13: 1464813760

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This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

The Truth About Inflation
The Truth About Inflation

Author: Paul Donovan

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-03-27

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 1317690044

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Inflation is a simple topic, in that the basic concepts are something that everyone can understand. However, inflation is not a simplistic topic. The composition of inflation and what the different inflation measures try to represent cannot be summarised with a single line on a chart or a casual reference to a solitary data point. Investors very often fail to understand the detail behind inflation, and end up making bad investment decisions as a result. The Truth About Inflation does not set out to forecast inflation, but to help improve its understanding, so that investors can make better decisions to achieve the real returns that they need. Starting with a summary of long history of inflation, the drivers of price change are considered. Many of the "urban myths" that have built up about inflation are shown to be a consequence of irrational judgement or political scaremongering. Some behaviour, like the unhealthy veneration of gold as a means of inflation protection, is shown to be the result of historical accident. In the modern era of lower nominal investment returns, inflation inequality (whereby some groups experience persistently higher inflation than others) is a very important consideration. This book sets out the realities of price changes in the modern investing environment, without using economic equations or jargon. It gives investors the framework they need to think about inflation and how to protect themselves against it, whether the aggregate inflation of the future rises or falls from current levels.

Monetary Regimes and Inflation
Monetary Regimes and Inflation

Author: Peter Bernholz

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2015-04-30

Total Pages: 311

ISBN-13: 1784717630

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Exploring the characteristics of inflations and comparing historical cases from Roman times up to the modern day, this book provides an in depth discussion of the subject. It analyses the high and moderate inflations caused by the inflationary bias of

The Great Demographic Reversal
The Great Demographic Reversal

Author: Charles Goodhart

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-08-08

Total Pages: 272

ISBN-13: 3030426572

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This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.

Remembering Inflation
Remembering Inflation

Author: Brigitte Granville

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2013-07-28

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 0691145407

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Why we need to heed the lessons of high inflation Today's global economy, with most developed nations experiencing very low inflation, seems a world apart from the "Great Inflation" that spanned the late 1960s to early 1980s. Yet, in this book, Brigitte Granville makes the case that monetary economists and policymakers need to keep the lessons learned during that period very much in mind, lest we return to them by making the same mistakes we made in the past. Granville details the advances in macroeconomic thinking that gave rise to the "Great Moderation"—a period of stable inflation and economic growth, which lasted from the mid-1980s through the most recent financial crisis. She makes the case that the central banks' management of monetary policy—hinging on expectations and credibility—brought about this period of stability, and traces the roots of this success back to the eighteenth-century foundations of modern monetary thought. Tackling fundamental questions such as the causes of inflation and its relation to unemployment and growth, the natural rate of inflation hypothesis, the fiscal theory of the price level, and the proper goals of central banks, the book aims above all to demonstrate the dangers of forgetting the role of credibility in establishing sound monetary policy. With the lessons of the past firmly in mind, Granville presents stimulating ideas and proposals about inflation-targeting principles, which provide tools for present-day monetary authorities dealing with the forces of globalization, mercantilism, and reserve accumulation.

Inflation Hacking
Inflation Hacking

Author: Kendrick Fernandez

Publisher:

Published: 2021-02-14

Total Pages: 138

ISBN-13: 9780645112207

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Inflation is like toothpaste. Once it's out of the tube, it's impossible to get it back in. This famous quote, by, Yale Hirsch, sums up all you need to know about inflation. Once a Government realizes the benefit of increased inflation for a debt based economy, inflation can only be hidden, transferred or obvious. Inflation is rarely removed. Once inflation hits, it is a rapid phenomemon and there is a rush to secure inflation proof securities. Prices of food, gas, services and consumer goods increase faster than your salary; and your standard of living decreases over time. However, savvy investors have inflation proofed their assets in periods of high inflation. Knowing how to measure inflation and observing the first signs of inflation is key. Investing in the right securities, secure assets, solid currencies and good long term debt can help. This book details several investment strategies to prepare for inflationary periods, rock solid asset classes and also has a plan for the worst case scenario of hyperinflation. Even if you've never heard of inflation in your life, you will benefit from the knowledge in this book......