Explanatory Model Analysis Explore, Explain and Examine Predictive Models is a set of methods and tools designed to build better predictive models and to monitor their behaviour in a changing environment. Today, the true bottleneck in predictive modelling is neither the lack of data, nor the lack of computational power, nor inadequate algorithms, nor the lack of flexible models. It is the lack of tools for model exploration (extraction of relationships learned by the model), model explanation (understanding the key factors influencing model decisions) and model examination (identification of model weaknesses and evaluation of model's performance). This book presents a collection of model agnostic methods that may be used for any black-box model together with real-world applications to classification and regression problems.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Uncertainty quantification may appear daunting for practitioners due to its inherent complexity but can be intriguing and rewarding for anyone with mathematical ambitions and genuine concern for modeling quality. Uncertainty quantification is what remains to be done when too much credibility has been invested in deterministic analyses and unwarranted assumptions. Model calibration describes the inverse operation targeting optimal prediction and refers to inference of best uncertain model estimates from experimental calibration data. The limited applicability of most state-of-the-art approaches to many of the large and complex calculations made today makes uncertainty quantification and model calibration major topics open for debate, with rapidly growing interest from both science and technology, addressing subtle questions such as credible predictions of climate heating.
Statistics is confusing, even for smart, technically competent people. And many students and professionals find that existing books and web resources don’t give them an intuitive understanding of confusing statistical concepts. That is why this book is needed. Some of the unique qualities of this book are: • Easy to Understand: Uses unique “graphics that teach” such as concept flow diagrams, compare-and-contrast tables, and even cartoons to enhance “rememberability.” • Easy to Use: Alphabetically arranged, like a mini-encyclopedia, for easy lookup on the job, while studying, or during an open-book exam. • Wider Scope: Covers Statistics I and Statistics II and Six Sigma Black Belt, adding such topics as control charts and statistical process control, process capability analysis, and design of experiments. As a result, this book will be useful for business professionals and industrial engineers in addition to students and professionals in the social and physical sciences. In addition, each of the 60+ concepts is covered in one or more articles. The 75 articles in the book are usually 5–7 pages long, ensuring that things are presented in “bite-sized chunks.” The first page of each article typically lists five “Keys to Understanding” which tell the reader everything they need to know on one page. This book also contains an article on “Which Statistical Tool to Use to Solve Some Common Problems”, additional “Which to Use When” articles on Control Charts, Distributions, and Charts/Graphs/Plots, as well as articles explaining how different concepts work together (e.g., how Alpha, p, Critical Value, and Test Statistic interrelate). ANDREW A. JAWLIK received his B.S. in Mathematics and his M.S. in Mathematics and Computer Science from the University of Michigan. He held jobs with IBM in marketing, sales, finance, and information technology, as well as a position as Process Executive. In these jobs, he learned how to communicate difficult technical concepts in easy - to - understand terms. He completed Lean Six Sigma Black Belt coursework at the IASSC - accredited Pyzdek Institute. In order to understand the confusing statistics involved, he wrote explanations in his own words and graphics. Using this material, he passed the certification exam with a perfect score. Those statistical explanations then became the starting point for this book.
The OpenIntro project was founded in 2009 to improve the quality and availability of education by producing exceptional books and teaching tools that are free to use and easy to modify. We feature real data whenever possible, and files for the entire textbook are freely available at openintro.org. Visit our website, openintro.org. We provide free videos, statistical software labs, lecture slides, course management tools, and many other helpful resources.
"Learning Statistics with R" covers the contents of an introductory statistics class, as typically taught to undergraduate psychology students, focusing on the use of the R statistical software and adopting a light, conversational style throughout. The book discusses how to get started in R, and gives an introduction to data manipulation and writing scripts. From a statistical perspective, the book discusses descriptive statistics and graphing first, followed by chapters on probability theory, sampling and estimation, and null hypothesis testing. After introducing the theory, the book covers the analysis of contingency tables, t-tests, ANOVAs and regression. Bayesian statistics are covered at the end of the book. For more information (and the opportunity to check the book out before you buy!) visit http://ua.edu.au/ccs/teaching/lsr or http://learningstatisticswithr.com
The field of stress analysis has gained its momentum from the widespread applications in industry and technology and has now become an important part of materials science. Various destructive as well as nondestructive methods have been developed for the determination of stresses. This timely book provides a comprehensive review of the nondestructive techniques for strain evaluation written by experts in their respective fields.The main part of the book deals with X-ray stress analysis (XSA), focussing on measurement and evaluation methods which can help to solve the problems of today, the numerous applications of metallic, polymeric and ceramic materials as well as of thin-film-substrate composites and of advanced microcomponents. Furthermore it contains data, results, hints and recommendations that are valuable to laboratories for the certification and accreditation of their stress analysis.Stress analysis is an active field in which many questions remain unsettled. Accordingly, unsolved problems and conflicting results are discussed as well. The assessment of the experimentally determined residual and structural stress states on the static and dynamic behavior of materials and components is handled in a separate chapter.Students and engineers of materials science and scientists working in laboratories and industries will find this book invaluable.
Introductory Business Statistics 2e aligns with the topics and objectives of the typical one-semester statistics course for business, economics, and related majors. The text provides detailed and supportive explanations and extensive step-by-step walkthroughs. The author places a significant emphasis on the development and practical application of formulas so that students have a deeper understanding of their interpretation and application of data. Problems and exercises are largely centered on business topics, though other applications are provided in order to increase relevance and showcase the critical role of statistics in a number of fields and real-world contexts. The second edition retains the organization of the original text. Based on extensive feedback from adopters and students, the revision focused on improving currency and relevance, particularly in examples and problems. This is an adaptation of Introductory Business Statistics 2e by OpenStax. You can access the textbook as pdf for free at openstax.org. Minor editorial changes were made to ensure a better ebook reading experience. Textbook content produced by OpenStax is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This book is an accessible, practical and comprehensive guide for researchers from multiple disciplines including biomedical, epidemiology, engineering and the social sciences. Written for accessibility, this book will appeal to students and researchers who want to understand the basics of survival and event history analysis and apply these methods without getting entangled in mathematical and theoretical technicalities. Inside, readers are offered a blueprint for their entire research project from data preparation to model selection and diagnostics. Engaging, easy to read, functional and packed with enlightening examples, ‘hands-on’ exercises, conversations with key scholars and resources for both students and instructors, this text allows researchers to quickly master advanced statistical techniques. It is written from the perspective of the ‘user’, making it suitable as both a self-learning tool and graduate-level textbook. Also included are up-to-date innovations in the field, including advancements in the assessment of model fit, unobserved heterogeneity, recurrent events and multilevel event history models. Practical instructions are also included for using the statistical programs of R, STATA and SPSS, enabling readers to replicate the examples described in the text.
Beyond Multiple Linear Regression: Applied Generalized Linear Models and Multilevel Models in R is designed for undergraduate students who have successfully completed a multiple linear regression course, helping them develop an expanded modeling toolkit that includes non-normal responses and correlated structure. Even though there is no mathematical prerequisite, the authors still introduce fairly sophisticated topics such as likelihood theory, zero-inflated Poisson, and parametric bootstrapping in an intuitive and applied manner. The case studies and exercises feature real data and real research questions; thus, most of the data in the textbook comes from collaborative research conducted by the authors and their students, or from student projects. Every chapter features a variety of conceptual exercises, guided exercises, and open-ended exercises using real data. After working through this material, students will develop an expanded toolkit and a greater appreciation for the wider world of data and statistical modeling. A solutions manual for all exercises is available to qualified instructors at the book’s website at www.routledge.com, and data sets and Rmd files for all case studies and exercises are available at the authors’ GitHub repo (https://github.com/proback/BeyondMLR)
