In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system. Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro) level, as well as on the level of individual large banks. Both estimates yield significant feedback effects of substantial magnitude. The estimates are consistent with other work in this area. Our results suggest that prudential supervision could be enhanced by taking into account the feedback effects of financial instability in the real economy. We also propose a way to integrate feedback effects into stress tests in order to improve realism and accuracy or macroeconomic stress scenarios, as well as a metric to interpret stress testing results.
This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
ÔFinancial stability is necessary. To achieve this common target an on-going dialogue is required between industry, policymakers, academia and other relevant stakeholders. This book provides a welcome and refreshing perspective from different standpoints on the issues at stake, and reminds us of the remaining work ahead.Õ Ð Axel Weber, Chair of Supervisory Board, UBS ÔSince 2008, financial stability has moved to the center of the policy stage. This volume, combining contributions from leading policy makers and academics, is the essential introduction to the issues. Must reading.Õ Ð Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, US ÔThere was a world BC (Before Crisis) and there will be a world AD (After Deleveraging) Ð the challenge is to create an effective, efficient yet stable and sustainable financial system for this Ònew worldÓ. This book provides the most comprehensive and thought-provoking basis for action I have seen so far.Õ Ð Paul Achleitner, Chair of Supervisory Board Deutsche Bank AG ÔFinancial stability is an overarching goal. In open and democratic societies, ensuring financial stability is a matter of interest not only to central bankers, academics and financial market players, but also to all well-informed citizens. This book provides an excellent basis for a wide-ranging and rewarding debate.Õ Ð Thomas J. Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank ÔThe financial crisis demonstrated conclusively that for central bankers and other policymakers financial stability must always be of paramount concern, for without it the macroeconomy will perform badly and monetary policy will lose its effectiveness. This book underscores the importance of financial stability, laying out the key issues and what must be done to avoid such disasters in the future.Õ Ð William C. Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US In the aftermath of the financial crisis, new financial market regulation is being implemented, and increasing numbers of countries are establishing new legislation for macroprudential oversight. Against this backdrop, this thought provoking book provides a platform for the leading international experts to discuss and encourage future debate on financial stability. The breadth and scope of the issues addressed reflect the challenge of developing and consistently implementing a coherent set of financial reforms to promote financial stability. The book advocates the development of financial reforms that are effective in striking the optimal balance between realizing the enormous benefits of efficient financial intermediation, capital allocation and risk management on the one hand, and controlling systemic risks and maintaining financial stability on the other. Making an important contribution to deepening our understanding of the many facets of financial stability, this book will prove a challenging read for policy makers, regulators and central bankers as well as for researchers and scholars in the fields of economics, money, finance and banking.
Financial regulation is often framed as a question of economic efficiency. This paper, by contrast, puts the distributive implications of financial regulation center stage. We develop a model in which the financial sector benefits from risk-taking by earning greater expected returns. However, risktaking also increases the incidence of large losses that lead to credit crunches and impose negative externalities on the real economy. We describe a Pareto frontier along which different levels of risktaking map into different levels of welfare for the two parties. A regulator has to trade off efficiency in the financial sector, which is aided by deregulation, against efficiency in the real economy, which is aided by tighter regulation and a more stable supply of credit. We also show that financial innovation, asymmetric compensation schemes, concentration in the banking system, and bailout expectations enable or encourage greater risk-taking and allocate greater surplus to the financial sector at the expense of the rest of the economy.
Provides a review of China's financial system and compares it to other financial systems. It reviews what has worked and what has not within the markets and intermediaries in China, the effects of the recent development of China's financial system on the economy, and a non-standard financial sector operating beyond the markets and banking sectors.
