The Out-of-sample Performance of Stochastic Methods in Forecasting Age-specific Mortality Rates
Author: Javier Meseguer
Publisher:
Published: 2008
Total Pages: 76
ISBN-13:
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The Out-Of-Sample Performance of Stochastic Methods in Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates
Author: Javier Meseguer
Publisher: BiblioGov
Published: 2013-06
Total Pages: 66
ISBN-13: 9781289013646
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper evaluates the out-of-sample performance of two stochastic models used to forecast age-specific mortality rates: (1) the model proposed by Lee and Carter (1992); and (2) a set of univariate autoregressions linked together by a common residual covariance matrix (Denton, Feavor, and Spencer 2005).
The Choice of Sample Size for Mortality Forecasting
Author: Hong Li
Publisher:
Published: 2015
Total Pages: 38
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKForecasted mortality rates using mortality models proposed in the recent literature are sensitive to the sample size. In this paper we propose a method based on Bayesian learning to determine model-specific posterior distributions of the sample sizes. In particular, the sample size is included as an extra parameter in the parameter space of the mortality model, and its posterior distribution is obtained based on historical performance for different forecast horizons up to 20 years. Age- and gender-specific posterior distributions of sample sizes are computed. Our method is applicable to a large class of linear mortality models. As illustration, we focus on the first generation of the Lee-Carter model and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model. Our method is applied to U.S. and Dutch data. For both countries we find highly concentrated posterior distributions of the sample size that are gender- and age-specific. In the out-of-sample forecast analysis, the Bayesian model outperforms the original mortality models with fixed sample sizes in the majority of cases.
Trends and Applications in Information Systems and Technologies
Author: Álvaro Rocha
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2021-04-22
Total Pages: 602
ISBN-13: 3030726576
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book is composed of a selection of articles from The 2021 World Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (WorldCIST'21), held online between 30 and 31 of March and 1 and 2 of April 2021 at Hangra de Heroismo, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal. WorldCIST is a global forum for researchers and practitioners to present and discuss recent results and innovations, current trends, professional experiences and challenges of modern information systems and technologies research, together with their technological development and applications. The main topics covered are: A) Information and Knowledge Management; B) Organizational Models and Information Systems; C) Software and Systems Modeling; D) Software Systems, Architectures, Applications and Tools; E) Multimedia Systems and Applications; F) Computer Networks, Mobility and Pervasive Systems; G) Intelligent and Decision Support Systems; H) Big Data Analytics and Applications; I) Human–Computer Interaction; J) Ethics, Computers & Security; K) Health Informatics; L) Information Technologies in Education; M) Information Technologies in Radiocommunications; N) Technologies for Biomedical Applications.
Developments in Demographic Forecasting
Author: Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2020-09-28
Total Pages: 261
ISBN-13: 3030424723
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Ageing Population Risks
Author: Pavel Shevchenko
Publisher: MDPI
Published: 2018-08-09
Total Pages: 231
ISBN-13: 3038428248
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Ageing Population Risks" that was published in Risks
The Health State Function of a Population
Author: Christos H. Skiadas
Publisher: ISAST
Published: 2013-03-04
Total Pages: 206
ISBN-13: 6188046505
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Health State Function of a Population This book will inspire colleagues in applying, developing and expanding the theoretical and practical issues related to the health state of the population and to improve forecasts related to the life expectancy and the healthy life span. The Second Edition of the book includes four more chapters presenting very important theoretical and applied work. The book deals with the theory related to the health state of a population and the introduced health state function. The book presents and applies the stochastic modeling techniques and the first exit time theory in demography along with the healthy life expectancy estimates and a derivation and classification of the human development stages. The data fitting techniques and the related programs are also presented. Many new and old terms are explored and quantitatively estimated especially the health state or the “vitality” of a population, the Deterioration and the related function and the Healthy Life Expectancy. A method for estimating the total loss of healthy life years with applications and comparisons for the healthy life expectancy in UK, Scotland, Sweden, and in the US States is added. A new Quantitative Method for Estimating the Human Development Stages based on the Health State Function Theory and the Resulting Deterioration Process is also included. The book is addressed to demographers, actuaries, statisticians, applied mathematicians, sociologists, psychologists, economists, health scientists, biologists, policy makers and scientists and practitioners of very many fields. Attention was given to prepare the material for readers from multidisciplinary fields thus including the appropriate formulas and mathematical typos along with many applications from computer programs in Excel. Read this book and share with us a fascinating exploration on life table data and the underlying information on human health state.
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting
Author: Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2019-03-28
Total Pages: 341
ISBN-13: 3030050750
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Update on diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for women’s cancers
Author: Ming Yi
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Published: 2023-08-01
Total Pages: 122
ISBN-13: 2832528562
DOWNLOAD EBOOKMachine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases
Author: Michael Kamp
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2022-02-18
Total Pages: 601
ISBN-13: 303093733X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis two-volume set constitutes the refereed proceedings of the workshops which complemented the 21th Joint European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD, held in September 2021. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic the conference and workshops were held online. The 104 papers were thoroughly reviewed and selected from 180 papers submited for the workshops. This two-volume set includes the proceedings of the following workshops:Workshop on Advances in Interpretable Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (AIMLAI 2021)Workshop on Parallel, Distributed and Federated Learning (PDFL 2021)Workshop on Graph Embedding and Mining (GEM 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning for Irregular Time-series (ML4ITS 2021)Workshop on IoT, Edge, and Mobile for Embedded Machine Learning (ITEM 2021)Workshop on eXplainable Knowledge Discovery in Data Mining (XKDD 2021)Workshop on Bias and Fairness in AI (BIAS 2021)Workshop on Workshop on Active Inference (IWAI 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning for Cybersecurity (MLCS 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning in Software Engineering (MLiSE 2021)Workshop on MIning Data for financial applications (MIDAS 2021)Sixth Workshop on Data Science for Social Good (SoGood 2021)Workshop on Machine Learning for Pharma and Healthcare Applications (PharML 2021)Second Workshop on Evaluation and Experimental Design in Data Mining and Machine Learning (EDML 2020)Workshop on Machine Learning for Buildings Energy Management (MLBEM 2021)
