This paper empirically examines the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials over the recent floating exchange rate period, using a panel cointegration method, with data for a set of industrialized countries. The paper finds evidence of statistically significant long-run relationships and plausible point estimates, which contrasts with much existing evidence. The failure of others to establish such relationships may reflect the estimation method they use rather than any inherent deficiency of the fundamentals-based models.
This paper empirically examines the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials over the recent floating exchange rate period, using a panel cointegration method, with data for a set of industrialized countries. The paper finds evidence of statistically significant long-run relationships and plausible point estimates, which contrasts with much existing evidence. The failure of others to establish such relationships may reflect the estimation method they use rather than any inherent deficiency of the fundamentals-based models.
This paper discusses the origins of the pyramid schemes and the way the authorities handled them. The paper analyzes the economic effects of the pyramid schemes, concluding that despite the descent into anarchy triggered by the schemes’ collapse, their direct effects on the economy are difficult to specify and appear to have been limited. The paper also argues that prevention of pyramid schemes is better than cure and that government and international financial institutions should be vigilant in clamping down on frauds.
Textbook, research papers on international economic theory, economic policy and practice - includes a literature survey of theoretical studies in trade relations; covers evolution of economic models explaining the determinants of trade structure, capital flow, labour mobility, trade in natural resources, etc.; examines macroeconomics aspects of balance of payments, exchange rate, international monetary system, economic relations and dependence, etc. Bibliography, graphs, statistical tables.
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.
This book includes three economic/econometric studies on four East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) and two studies on China. The four East Asian economies, designated at one time as ‘economic tigers’, provide important and interesting case studies on periods of very rapid growth with heavy capital inflows, followed by financial and economic crises. The three studies on these countries examine the impact of heavy capital inflows on growth, real exchange rates and the conduct of domestic monetary policy during the period 1970-96, which immediately preceded their financial crises of 1997-98. At a more general level, they shed light on the contributions that capital inflows make to small open economies and how these inflows impact on their exchange rates and monetary policies.The two studies on China examine the adequacy of capital flows to it and its monetary policies. In recent years, while China has been among the biggest recipients of capital inflows, our study on it finds that these inflows are still considerably short of the amounts that perfect capital flows would imply. Regarding China's pursuit of monetary policy, our study is the first one to question whether interest rates or monetary aggregates are appropriate instruments for the control of the economy. Our finding is that its large informal sector and black money holdings make the use of monetary aggregates the more appropriate policy instrument. This finding contrasts with the usual one for financially developed economies that interest rate targeting and a Taylor rule provide the applicable monetary policy framework.
The paper estimates Angola’s equilibrium parallel market real exchange rate during the 1992–98 period. Using standard integration/co-integration techniques, the results fail to support the purchasing power parity hypothesis and indicate that two exogenous variables—the price of oil and the foreign interest rate—are able to explain most of the variation in the real exchange rate during the last seven years. These results contrast with the tenet that the parallel market exchange rate in Angola is solely influenced by monetary developments.
