Inflation Measure, Taylor Rules, and the Greenspan-Bernanke Years
Inflation Measure, Taylor Rules, and the Greenspan-Bernanke Years

Author: Yash P. Mehra

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1437941265

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication. The Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan was forward looking, smoothed interest rates, and focused on core inflation. The semi-annual monetary policy reports indicate that the measure of inflation used in monetary policy deliberations has also been refined over time: for most of the Greenspan period before 2000, inflation forecasts used the consumer price index, but in the early 2000s, inflation forecasts switched to using the core personal consumption expenditures deflator. This article estimates two forward-looking Taylor rules that differ only with respect to the measure of inflation used over 1987:1-1006:4. The results highlight the importance of using real-time information in evaluating historical monetary policy actions. Charts and tables.

Model Rules of Professional Conduct
Model Rules of Professional Conduct

Author: American Bar Association. House of Delegates

Publisher: American Bar Association

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 9781590318737

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium
A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

Author: Emanuel Kopp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-15

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1484363671

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia
The Yield Curve and Financial Risk Premia

Author: Felix Geiger

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-08-17

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 3642215750

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book’s approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

The Market-perceived Monetary Policy Rule
The Market-perceived Monetary Policy Rule

Author: James Douglas Hamilton

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. Market forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy are affected by news, and our estimation links the two effects. This enables us to estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations, and in so doing flexibly capture the particular dynamics of policy response. We find evidence that between 1994 and 2007 the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. In a standard model we show that output smoothing caused by a larger inflation response magnitude is offset by the more measured pace of response. Our response coefficient estimates are robust to measurement and theoretical issues with both potential output and the inflation target.

Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates
Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates

Author: Michiel de Pooter

Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 286

ISBN-13: 9051709153

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This dissertation consists of a collection of studies on two areas in quantitative finance: asset return volatility and the term structure of interest rates. The first part of this dissertation offers contributions to the literature on how to test for sudden changes in unconditional volatility, on modelling realized volatility and on the choice of optimal sampling frequencies for intraday returns. The emphasis in the second part of this dissertation is on the term structure of interest rates.

Monetary Policy Rules
Monetary Policy Rules

Author: John B. Taylor

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-12-01

Total Pages: 460

ISBN-13: 0226791262

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.