The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology
The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Author: Rui Mano

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-09-13

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1513515039

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This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.

2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology
2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology

Author: Mr. Cian Allen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-03-03

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

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The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.

The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update
The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update

Author: Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-19

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13: 149830463X

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The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.

The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology
The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Author: Rui Mano

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-09-13

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1513511025

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This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology
The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Author: Mr.Steven Phillips

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-01-13

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13: 1484346785

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The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.

The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update
The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update

Author: Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-19

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13: 1498300936

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The assessment of external positions and exchange rates is a key mandate of the IMF. This paper presents the updated External Balance Assessment (EBA) framework—a key input in the conduct of multilaterally-consistent external sector assessments of 49 advanced and emerging market economies—following the two rounds of refinements adopted since the framework was introduced in 2012 (as described in Phillips et al., 2013). It also presents new complementary tools for shedding light on the role of structural factors in explaining external imbalances and assessing potential biases in the measurement of external positions. Remaining challenges and areas of future work are also discussed.

External Sector Report 2021
External Sector Report 2021

Author: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-08-02

Total Pages: 110

ISBN-13: 1513576674

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Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2020, external developments throughout the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes how the unprecedented fiscal support provided in response to the COVID-19 crisis has affected external positions at the individual and global level. It also focuses on how withdrawal of such support will impact external positions in the medium term. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of June 30, 2021.

Rwanda
Rwanda

Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-07-13

Total Pages: 107

ISBN-13: 1484309928

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This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Rwanda has demonstrated strong macroeconomic policy management and implemented an ambitious development strategy that has resulted in high and inclusive growth, lower poverty and more gender equality, and improved living standards. Growth in 2016 was 5.9 percent, down from 2015, but comparing favorably to growth in the subcontinent. A recovery of growth is expected in 2017–18, owing to good rains and expanding domestic production. A spike in consumer price inflation in early 2017 was driven by food prices. Main risks to economic growth continue to be weather shocks affecting agriculture, regional security issues, and unexpected shifts in external development assistance.

Finland
Finland

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-17

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 1513561413

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This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Finland’s exports have suffered owing to the declines of Nokia and the paper industry, compounded by weak external demand, especially from the euro area and Russia. The current account and fiscal balances have deteriorated, with the 2014 fiscal deficit breaching the Stability and Growth Pact’s 3 percent of GDP criterion. A modest recovery is projected to begin in 2015 and gradually strengthen in 2016. However, in absence of further reforms, growth is likely to remain much lower than pre-crisis. Weaker-than-expected growth in key trade partners would be a drag on exports, and spillovers from an external financial shock would create tighter financial conditions, with negative effects on output.

Rwanda: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda
Rwanda: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-01-13

Total Pages: 121

ISBN-13: 1616359285

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Rwanda’s medium-term outlook is positive, supported by the authorities’ large policy package to respond to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic and their continued commitment to the PCI in a challenging environment. Economic recovery is underway with easing of restrictions supported by faster vaccination rates since July. GDP growth is projected at 10.2 percent in 2021 and inflation remained subdued. But Rwanda’s remarkable economic and social progress over the last two decades faces a significant setback, with poverty, unemployment, and gender inequalities on the rise. These pandemic scars, if not addressed, risk reversing hard-won economic and social gains. With a large share of the population still unvaccinated and the emergence of new variants, risks to the outlook remain elevated.