This report is the first rigorous analysis of the economic impacts of current legislative proposals to raise CAFE under the reformed “attribute-based” structure. Whereas historic CAFE standards set one standard for every automaker, the reformed system fundamentally alters the impact of the standards on individual companies. Under the reformed CAFE structure, which applies to light trucks starting next year and is the leading proposal under discussion in Congress, each vehicle is assigned a fuel economy target based on vehicle attributes. Light truck targets are a function of the truck’s “footprint” – that is, the area defined by the truck’s wheels. Each automaker’s truck CAFE target will be a sales-weightedaverage of the targets for its truck models – automakers that market larger vehicles will face a less stringent standard.
Since CAFE standards were established 25 years ago, there have been significant changes in motor vehicle technology, globalization of the industry, the mix and characteristics of vehicle sales, production capacity, and other factors. This volume evaluates the implications of these changes as well as changes anticipated in the next few years, on the need for CAFE, as well as the stringency and/or structure of the CAFE program in future years.
The light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to undergo substantial technological changes over the next several decades. New powertrain designs, alternative fuels, advanced materials and significant changes to the vehicle body are being driven by increasingly stringent fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards. By the end of the next decade, cars and light-duty trucks will be more fuel efficient, weigh less, emit less air pollutants, have more safety features, and will be more expensive to purchase relative to current vehicles. Though the gasoline-powered spark ignition engine will continue to be the dominant powertrain configuration even through 2030, such vehicles will be equipped with advanced technologies, materials, electronics and controls, and aerodynamics. And by 2030, the deployment of alternative methods to propel and fuel vehicles and alternative modes of transportation, including autonomous vehicles, will be well underway. What are these new technologies - how will they work, and will some technologies be more effective than others? Written to inform The United States Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards, this new report from the National Research Council is a technical evaluation of costs, benefits, and implementation issues of fuel reduction technologies for next-generation light-duty vehicles. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles estimates the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed from 2020 to 2030. This report describes these promising technologies and makes recommendations for their inclusion on the list of technologies applicable for the 2017-2025 CAFE standards.
Since CAFE standards were established 25 years ago, there have been significant changes in motor vehicle technology, globalization of the industry, the mix and characteristics of vehicle sales, production capacity, and other factors. This volume evaluates the implications of these changes as well as changes anticipated in the next few years, on the need for CAFE, as well as the stringency and/or structure of the CAFE program in future years.
"The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) of the United States Department of Transportation's Research and Innovative Technology Administration has developed a modeling system to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the evaluation of potential new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Based on externally-developed inputs, the modeling system estimates how manufacturers could apply additional fuel-saving technologies in response to new CAFE standards, and estimates how doing so would increase vehicle costs, reduce national fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and result in other effects and benefits to society. The modeling system can also be used to estimate the stringency at which an attribute-based CAFE standard satisfies various criteria. For example, the system can estimate the stringency that produces a specified average required fuel economy level, or that maximizes net benefits to society. / This report documents the design and function of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System as of October 30, 2008, specifies the content, structure, and meaning of inputs and outputs, and provides instructions for the installation and ues of the modeling system."--Preface (p. ii).
"The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) of the United States Department of Transportation's Research and Innovative Technology Administration has developed a modeling system to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the evaluation of potential new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Given externally-developed inputs, the modeling system estimates how manufacturers could apply additional fuel-saving technologies in response to new CAFE standards, and estimates how doing so would increase vehicle costs, reduce national fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and result in other effects and benefits to society. The modeling system can also be used to estimate the stringency at which an attribute-based CAFE standard satisfies various criteria. For example, the system can estimate the stringency that produces a specified average required fuel economy level, or that maximizes net benefits to society."--Technical report documentation page.
Various combinations of commercially available technologies could greatly reduce fuel consumption in passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, minivans, and other light-duty vehicles without compromising vehicle performance or safety. Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy estimates the potential fuel savings and costs to consumers of available technology combinations for three types of engines: spark-ignition gasoline, compression-ignition diesel, and hybrid. According to its estimates, adopting the full combination of improved technologies in medium and large cars and pickup trucks with spark-ignition engines could reduce fuel consumption by 29 percent at an additional cost of $2,200 to the consumer. Replacing spark-ignition engines with diesel engines and components would yield fuel savings of about 37 percent at an added cost of approximately $5,900 per vehicle, and replacing spark-ignition engines with hybrid engines and components would reduce fuel consumption by 43 percent at an increase of $6,000 per vehicle. The book focuses on fuel consumption-the amount of fuel consumed in a given driving distance-because energy savings are directly related to the amount of fuel used. In contrast, fuel economy measures how far a vehicle will travel with a gallon of fuel. Because fuel consumption data indicate money saved on fuel purchases and reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, the book finds that vehicle stickers should provide consumers with fuel consumption data in addition to fuel economy information.
