Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.
A fascinating, groundbreaking exposé of how commodity traders in New York and London have destabilized societies all over the world, leaving the most vulnerable at the mercy of hunger, chaos, and war. • With a new Afterword for the ebook. For Rupert Russell, the Brexit vote was only the latest shock in a decade full of them: the unstoppable war in Syria, huge migrant flows into Europe, beheadings in Iraq, children placed in cages on the U.S. border. In Price Wars, he sets out on a worldwide journey to investigate what caused the wave of chaos that consumed the world in the 2010s. Russell travels to Tunisia, Iraq, Venezuela, Ukraine, East Africa, and Central America and discovers that unrest in all these places was triggered by dramatic and mysterious swings in the price of essential commodities. Deregulation of the commodities markets means that food prices can shoot up even in years of abundant harvests, causing hunger and protest. Oil prices and real-estate values can surge even when supplies are normal, enriching and emboldening dictators. It is this instability--fueled by banks and hedge funds in faraway New York and London--that has toppled regimes and unsettled the West. Price Wars is a fascinating, original, and groundbreaking exposé of the power of the commodities markets to disrupt the world.
Agricultural Prices and Commodity MarketAnalysis discusses the application of economictheory to agriculture and the foodindustry, using quantitative tools. The blendof theory and application is unique in detailinghow demand and supply can be measuredand how econometric simulationmodels can be constructed and evaluated.This revised edition focuses on forecastingand generating long-term projections as wellas discussing the relatively unexplored areaof stochastic modeling, which is critical inhandling crop yield variability. Other topicscovered include agricultural policy analysisand futures/options markets. The role oftime series models in improving structuralequations and forecasting techniques providesa capstone.
This overview of project finance for the oil and gas industry covers financial markets, sources and providers of finance, financial structures, and capital raising processes. About US$300 billion of project finance debt is raised annually across several capital intensive sectors—including oil and gas, energy, infrastructure, and mining—and the oil and gas industry represents around 30% of the global project finance market. With over 25 year's project finance experience in international banking and industry, author Robert Clews explores project finance techniques and their effectiveness in the petroleum industry. He highlights the petroleum industry players, risks, economics, and commercial/legal arrangements. With petroleum industry projects representing amongst the largest industrial activities in the world, this book ties together concepts and tools through real examples and aims to ensure that project finance will continue to play a central role in bringing together investors and lenders to finance these ventures. - Combines the theory and practice of raising long-term funding for capital intensive projects with insights about the appeal of project finance to the international oil and gas industry - Includes case studies and examples covering projects in the Arctic, East Africa, Latin America, North America, and Australia - Emphasizes the full downstream value chain of the industry instead of limiting itself to upstream and pipeline project financing - Highlights petroleum industry players, risks, economics, and commercial and legal arrangements
Confused about commodities? Consult this essential resource Oil, rice, corn, the Euro--commodities these days are hot, and they're getting hotter. This engaging and thorough guide covers all the basics you'll need to profit from today's most active investment classes. Commodities Demystified takes you straight to the heart of the subject, beginning with a discussion on the basic elements of the commodities market. It then introduces you to the various available commodities and investment options, including exchange-traded instruments, futures, and options, and explains the correlation between inflation and commodity prices. Finally, each chapter ends with a quick-review quiz enabling you to test your knowledge. Designed to provide a thorough education without overwhelming you with complexities and mystifying jargon, this self-teaching guide is exactly what you need to successfully identify and trade commodities in today's market. This confusion-busting guide covers: The fundamentals of the commodities market Different commodity classes and subclasses Finding a reputable commodities broker How to make online trades Strategies for minimizing risk and maximizing profits
You can make large profits by trading commodities--but you’ll need significant practical knowledge of the associated risks and market characteristics before you start.A Trader’s First Book on Commoditiesis a simple, practical and useful guide for new commodities traders. Author Carley Garner provides specific guidance on accessing commodity markets cost-effectively, avoiding common beginners’ mistakes, and improving the odds of successful, profitable trades. Drawing on her extensive experience teaching traders, Garner shows how to calculate profit, loss, and risk in commodities, and choose the best brokerage firm, service level, data sources, and market access for your needs. She’ll help you: · Master the basics of trading commodities painlessly, avoiding beginners mistakes · Get what you need, and prevent paying for what you don’t need · Know what you’re buying, what it costs, the returns you’re earning and the risk you’re taking · Predict price, manage risk, and make trades that reflect your analysis Garner demystifies the industry’s colorful language, helps you clearly understand what you’re buying and selling, and walks you through the entire trading process. She concludes with a refreshingly new look at topics such as trading plans, handling margin calls, and even maintaining emotional stability as a trader. “This book provides the type of information every trader needs to know and the type of information too many traders had to learn the hard and expensive way. Carley offers practical need-to-know, real-world trading tips that are lacking in many books on futures. It will help not only the novice trader, but seasoned veterans as well. This book will serve as a must-have reference in every trader’s library.” --Phil Flynn, Vice President and Senior Market analyst at PFGBest Research, and a Fox Business Network contributor “Refreshing–It’s nice to see a broker who has actually been exposed to the professional side of trading and who bridges that chasm between exchange floor trading and customer service. Carley takes the time to explain verbiage, not just throw buzz words around. A good educational read in my opinion.” --Don Bright, Director, Bright Trading, LLC “This book has the perfect name, the perfect message, and the necessary information for any beginning trader. Take this book home!” --Glen Larson, President, Genesis Financial Technologies, Inc. “As a 35-year veteran of the CME/CBOT trading floor, I can tell you…those who think they can begin trading commodities without knowing the less talked about topics that Carley discusses inA Trader’s First Book on Commoditiesare sadly mistaken. Anyone who trades their own account, or would like to, should read this book.” --Danny Riley, DT Trading
"Commodities Rising, part memoir and part investment guide, provides a unique and practical perspective that is based on a rare combination of professional experiences." -Donald F. Larson, Senior Economist, World Bank "Jeffrey Christian brings twenty-five years of commodity market experience to his thoughtful and insightful new book. A keen analyst, Christian debunks many commodity market myths. There has been a substantial underinvestment in commodity research of late. His book is a 'must-read' for any investor wishing to avoid the pitfalls present in physical commodity investments." -Terrence F. Martell, PhD, Saxe Distinguished Professor of Finance, Director, Weissman Center for International Business, Baruch College, CUNY;Public Governor, New York Board of Trade "If you've read one of the recent 'commodity craze' books, you'll appreciate the more careful, thorough account Christian provides here. His anecdotes and analysis will convince you that this is truly an insider's assessment." -Peter A. Biebel, Vice President, Director of Futures Research, A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc. "In addition to its depth, Christian's book is extremely reader-friendly, presenting commodity issues from various angles. I strongly recommend to anyone interested in commodities that they read this book; and to those still unfamiliar with the subject, I recommend that they take a look. The rewards will be significant, intellectually and possibly financially." -Takamasa Akiyama, Professor of Development Economics, Nihon University, Mishima, Japan, and Senior Advisor, Foundation for Advanced Studies onInternational Development (FASID), Tokyo, Japan Analyze the current commodity environment and look out over the next few years to identify potential profit situations in Commodities Rising. You'll learn how commodities can be used to reduce risk and increase returns in a balanced investment portfolio. Author and commodities expert Jeffrey Christian debunks much of the misinformation currently circulating about commodities and provides a reasoned reality-check you can use to evaluate the claims and promises of various publications and brokerages in the commodity field. Specific issues addressed throughout this book include: the variety of commodity investments?exchange traded funds, stocks, futures, and options; commodities in the global economy; commodity trading/investing strategies. Filled with in-depth insights and engaging anecdotes gleaned from the author?s 30 years in the commodity markets, this is an invaluable resource for the serious investor or trader.
The U.S. food system provides many benefits, not the least of which is a safe, nutritious and consistent food supply. However, the same system also creates significant environmental, public health, and other costs that generally are not recognized and not accounted for in the retail price of food. These include greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, soil erosion, air pollution, and their environmental consequences, the transfer of antibiotic resistance from food animals to human, and other human health outcomes, including foodborne illnesses and chronic disease. Some external costs which are also known as externalities are accounted for in ways that do not involve increasing the price of food. But many are not. They are borne involuntarily by society at large. A better understanding of external costs would help decision makers at all stages of the life cycle to expand the benefits of the U.S. food system even further. The Institute of Medicine (IOM) and the National Research Council (NRC) with support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) convened a public workshop on April 23-23, 2012, to explore the external costs of food, methodologies for quantifying those costs, and the limitations of the methodologies. The workshop was intended to be an information-gathering activity only. Given the complexity of the issues and the broad areas of expertise involved, workshop presentations and discussions represent only a small portion of the current knowledge and are by no means comprehensive. The focus was on the environmental and health impacts of food, using externalities as a basis for discussion and animal products as a case study. The intention was not to quantify costs or benefits, but rather to lay the groundwork for doing so. A major goal of the workshop was to identify information sources and methodologies required to recognize and estimate the costs and benefits of environmental and public health consequences associated with the U.S. food system. It was anticipated that the workshop would provide the basis for a follow-up consensus study of the subject and that a central task of the consensus study will be to develop a framework for a full-scale accounting of the environmental and public health effects for all food products of the U.S. food system. Exploring Health and Environmental Costs of Food: Workshop Summary provides the basis for a follow-up planning discussion involving members of the IOM Food and Nutrition Board and the NRC Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources and others to develop the scope and areas of expertise needed for a larger-scale, consensus study of the subject.