The Arab Spring protests caught most of the world by surprise and precipitated a chain of events that changed the course of history in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), ushering in a period of prolonged political instability and intense civil conflicts. The analysis of the Arab Spring aftermath sheds light on the interplay between economic, behavioral, institutional, and political factors that have influenced the transitions across the region and the risk of civil conflict. The study draws on four main bodies of literature on poverty and inequality, subjective well-being, civil conflict, and macroeconomics as well as on an eclectic mix of quantitative and qualitative methods and data. Given the complex nature of the Arab Spring and its aftermath, the study touches also on areas related to political economy and governance.
The economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have always been characterized by economic volatility and social disparities. The recent ŠArab Spring� wave of protests has increased political uncertainty and instability in the region, a
The Arab Uprisings were unexpected events of rare intensity in Middle Eastern history – mass, popular and largely non-violent revolts which threatened and in some cases toppled apparently stable autocracies. This volume provides in-depth analyses of how people perceived the socio-economic and political transformations in three case studies epitomising different post-Uprising trajectories – Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt – and drawing on survey data to explore ordinary citizens’ perceptions of politics, security, the economy, gender, corruption, and trust. The findings suggest the causes of protest in 2010-2011 were not just political marginalisation and regime repression, but also denial of socio-economic rights and regimes failure to provide social justice. Data also shows these issues remain unresolved, and that populations have little confidence governments will deliver, leaving post-Uprisings regimes neither strong nor stable, but fierce and brittle. This analysis has direct implications both for policy and for scholarship on transformations, democratization, authoritarian resilience and ‘hybrid regimes’.
Eruptions of Popular Anger: The Economics of the Arab Spring and Its Aftermath sets out to answer three puzzles—the “Arab inequality†? puzzle of civil uprisings in countries with low-to-moderate and stagnant economic inequality, the “unhappy development†? paradox of increasing dissatisfaction at a time of moderate-to-rapid development, and the paradox of political violence in middle-income countries. The book’s empirical investigation rules out high and rising inequality as a reason for the Arab Spring uprisings. It shows that the real problem was the erosion in middle-class incomes and the growing dissatisfaction with the quality of life, the shortage of formal sector jobs, and corruption. Frustration was particularly high among the young, educated, middle-class residents in urban areas. The old social contract, which had delivered development results in the past and under which Arab governments provided public-sector jobs and subsidized services in return for subdued voice, was unsustainable and malfunctioning. The public sector could no longer be the employer of choice, but the private sector did not generate enough formal sector jobs, because of distortions that constrained its growth and policies that offered advantages to a few firms with political connections, limiting competition and private investment. The breakdown in the social contract increased the premium on freedom and created impetus for political change. This report shows that the Arab Spring revolutions and the subsequent spread of violence and civil wars in the post†“Arab Spring Middle East and North Africa region can be traced to the broken social contract, institutional weaknesses, and regional divisions in societies polarized along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Arab Spring and its aftermath indicate the need for a new social contract under which governments promote private-sector job creation, design public services in a way that holds providers accountable to beneficiaries, and promote inclusion and good governance.
The works collected in The Lure of Authoritarianism consider the normative appeal of authoritarianism in light of the 2011 popular uprisings in the Middle East. Despite what seemed to be a popular revolution in favor of more democratic politics, there has instead been a slide back toward authoritarian regimes that merely gesture toward notions of democracy. In the chaos that followed the Arab Spring, societies were lured by the prospect of strong leaders with firm guiding hands. The shift toward normalizing these regimes seems sudden, but the works collected in this volume document a gradual shift toward support for authoritarianism over democracy that stretches back decades in North Africa. Contributors consider the ideological, socioeconomic, and security-based justifications of authoritarianism as well as the surprising and vigorous reestablishment of authoritarianism in these regions. With careful attention to local variations and differences in political strategies, the volume provides a nuanced and sweeping consideration of the changes in the Middle East in the past and what they mean for the future.
Previously published by Pambazuka Press in 2012 under the title of 'The People's Spring: the Future of the Arab Revolution.' This edition contains a new chapter analyzing U.S. geo-strategy.
Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.
The aim of this volume is to adopt an original analytical approach in explaining various dynamics at work behind the Arab Spring, through giving voice to local dynamics and legacies rather than concentrating on debates about paradigms. It highlights micro-perspectives of change and resistance—as well of contentious politics—that are often marginalized and left unexplored in favor of macro-analyses. First, the story of the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Morocco and Algeria is told through diverse and novel perspectives, looking at factors that have not yet been sufficiently underlined, but carry explanatory power for what has occurred. Second, rather than focusing on macro-comparative regional trends, the contributors to this book focus on the particularities of each country, highlighting distinctive micro-dynamics of change and continuity. The essays collected here are contributions from renowned writers and researchers from the Middle East and North Africa, along with Western experts, brought together to form a sophisticated dialogic exchange.
The street protests that erupted in Tunisia in December 2010 and spread quickly throughout the Middle East surprised not only the entrenched dictators of the region but also international observers who collectively had taken for granted the durability of Middle Eastern authoritarianism. Specifically, the Arab Spring uprisings debunked the prevailing notion that youth were disengaged from political life by their economic exclusion and tight regime control of their mobilization. Indeed, the one consistent feature across the uprisings, whether peaceful or violent, was the key role played by young people. What has remained unclear is why youth became the vanguards of the Arab Spring protests and why they have not played a more prominent role in the transitions that followed. To address these questions, the authors in this volume use updated data sets on demography, employment, education, inequality, social media and public sentiment to examine the underlying socioeconomic conditions of young people in the Middle East at the time of the uprisings and offer a mosaic of analytical explanations linking those conditions from 2009-2011 to the revolts of 2010-2012. The findings in the volume confirm the inadequacy of traditional narrow explanations rooted in demographic profiles, economic grievances or political exclusion in accounting for the complex socioeconomic dynamics facing youth and societies at large in the Middle East in the period leading up to the Arab Spring. The contributors emphasize the fundamental institutional rigidities in the region's policy space and evaluate potential approaches to policy reform that can promote youth inclusion and help transform the region's political economies in the post Arab Spring environment of persistent economic volatility, social unrest and political instability.
"Unlike other books on the Arab uprisings of 2010-2011 which focus on why they occurred, this book looks instead towards the future of three countries - Syria, Libya and Yemen - where the violence and instability initiated by the uprisings persist. It additionally examines the case of Iraq which continues to suffer from a precarious political situation introduced by the US led invasion of 2003.The book investigates what should be done to achieve inclusive political and economic development and eventually a lasting peace. It describes the particular circumstances in each of the four countries, and analyses the common challenges facing them such as the need to achieve economic diversification, control inflation, raise employment levels, husband fiscal expenditures, control corruption and implement transparent policies. It argues that in the four countries any lasting settlement must involve an explicitly stated new social contract that lays the foundation for inclusive socio-economic development and a genuinely democratic environment. In addition, a massive transformation is required of the institutional fabric of society, that is, the set of key institutions that helped create the conditions for conflict. Moreover, the book argues that any successful transition hinges on anticipating the potential for political and economic development that an eventual peace agreement will open. This can only be done by envisioning and planning the reforms that ought to be implemented, and building up political support for the transition phase"--
