Combining statistical analysis with well-written narrative history, this re-evaluation of the 1928 presidential election gives a vivid portrait of the candidates and the campaign. Lichtman has based his study primarily on a statistical analysis of data from that election and the presidential elections from 1916 to 1940 for all the 2,058 counties outside the former Confederate South. Not relying exclusively on the results of his quantitative analysis, however, Lichtman has also made an exhaustive survey of previous scholarship and contemporary accounts of the 1928 election. He discusses and challenges previous interpretations, especially the ethnocultural and pluralist interpretations and the application of critical election theory to the election. In disputing this theory, which claims that 1928 was a realigning election in which the coalitions were formed that dominated future elections, Lichtman determines that 1928 was an aberration with little impact on later political patterns.
The CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections is a comprehensive, two-volume reference providing information on the U.S. electoral process, in-depth analysis on specific political eras and issues, and everything in between. Thoroughly revised and infused with new data, analysis, and discussion of issues relating to elections through 2014, the Guide will include chapters on: Analysis of the campaigns for presidency, from the primaries through the general election Data on the candidates, winners/losers, and election returns Details on congressional and gubernatorial contests supplemented with vast historical data. Key Features include: Tables, boxes and figures interspersed throughout each chapter Data on campaigns, election methods, and results Complete lists of House and Senate leaders Links to election-related websites A guide to party abbreviations
"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Imagine a presidential election with four well-qualified and distinguished candidates and a serious debate over the future of the nation! Sound impossible in this era of attack ads and strident partisanship? It happened nearly a century ago in 1912, when incumbent Republican William Howard Taft, former president Theodore Roosevelt running as the Progressive Party candidate, Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson, and Socialist candidate Eugene V. Debs all spoke to major concerns of the American people and changed the landscape of national politics in the bargain. The presidential election of 1912 saw a third-party candidate finish second in both popular and electoral votes. The Socialist candidate received the highest percentage of the popular vote his party ever attained. In addition to year-round campaigning in the modern style, the 1912 contest featured a broader role for women, two exciting national conventions, and an assassination attempt on Roosevelt's life. The election defined the major parties for generations to come as the Taft-Roosevelt split pushed the Republicans to the right and the Democrats' agenda of reform set them on the road to the New Deal. Lewis L. Gould, one of America's preeminent political historians, tells the story of this dramatic race and explains its enduring significance. Basing his narrative on the original letters and documents of the candidates themselves, he guides his readers down the campaign trail through the factional splits, exciting primaries, tumultuous conventions and the turbulent fall campaign to Wilson's landslide electoral vote victory in November. It's all here-Gene Debs's challenge to capitalism, the progressive rivalry of Roosevelt and Robert La Follette, the debate between the New Freedom of Wilson and the New Nationalism of Roosevelt, and the resolve of Taft to defeat his one-time friend TR and keep the Republican Party in conservative hands. Gould combines lively anecdotes, the poetry and prose of the campaign, and insights into the clash of ideology and personality to craft a narrative that moves as fast as did the 1912 election itself. Americans sensed in 1912 that they stood at a turning point in the nation's history. Four Hats in the Ring demonstrates why the people who lived and fought this significant election were more right than they could ever have known.
Step into the realm of political philosophy and societal transformation with Woodrow Wilson's "The New Freedom: A Call for the Emancipation of the Generous Energies of a People." Prepare to embark on an inspiring journey towards social and economic progress as Wilson articulates a bold vision for a more just and equitable society. Join Wilson as he champions the cause of individual liberty and collective empowerment, urging citizens to unleash their boundless potential in pursuit of a brighter future. Through stirring rhetoric and impassioned advocacy, he calls for a fundamental reimagining of the relationship between government and the governed. Explore the themes and motifs that resonate throughout Wilson's call to action, from the importance of economic opportunity to the need for social justice and political reform. His vision of the "new freedom" envisions a society where every individual has the chance to fulfill their dreams and contribute to the common good. Embark on a profound character analysis as Wilson examines the qualities and virtues that define a free and democratic society. From the resilience of the common people to the integrity of visionary leaders, he offers insights into the essential ingredients for building a more inclusive and equitable world. The overall tone of "The New Freedom" is one of hope and optimism, as Wilson inspires readers to embrace the possibilities of collective action and social change. His message resonates with timeless ideals of liberty, equality, and opportunity, offering a roadmap for realizing the full potential of a democratic society. Since its publication, Wilson's manifesto has inspired generations of activists, reformers, and policymakers to strive for a more just and equitable world. His ideas continue to shape political discourse and influence public policy, offering a guiding light for those who seek to build a better future. As you immerse yourself in Wilson's vision of the "new freedom," you'll be inspired by his passionate advocacy for social justice and economic opportunity. His words challenge us to think critically about the values that define our society and to work tirelessly to realize the promise of democracy for all. Don't miss your chance to join Woodrow Wilson in his call for the emancipation of the generous energies of a people. Let "The New Freedom" inspire you to imagine a world where liberty, justice, and opportunity are within reach of every citizen. Grab your copy now and join the movement for social and economic progress.
Why our belief in government by the people is unrealistic—and what we can do about it Democracy for Realists assails the romantic folk-theory at the heart of contemporary thinking about democratic politics and government, and offers a provocative alternative view grounded in the actual human nature of democratic citizens. Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels deploy a wealth of social-scientific evidence, including ingenious original analyses of topics ranging from abortion politics and budget deficits to the Great Depression and shark attacks, to show that the familiar ideal of thoughtful citizens steering the ship of state from the voting booth is fundamentally misguided. They demonstrate that voters—even those who are well informed and politically engaged—mostly choose parties and candidates on the basis of social identities and partisan loyalties, not political issues. They also show that voters adjust their policy views and even their perceptions of basic matters of fact to match those loyalties. When parties are roughly evenly matched, elections often turn on irrelevant or misleading considerations such as economic spurts or downturns beyond the incumbents' control; the outcomes are essentially random. Thus, voters do not control the course of public policy, even indirectly. Achen and Bartels argue that democratic theory needs to be founded on identity groups and political parties, not on the preferences of individual voters. Now with new analysis of the 2016 elections, Democracy for Realists provides a powerful challenge to conventional thinking, pointing the way toward a fundamentally different understanding of the realities and potential of democratic government.
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