The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Kazakhstan highlights the economic outlook and fiscal policy. Inflation moderated to single-digit levels and confidence in the banking system strengthened, leading to rapid remonetization and significant dedollarization. The conduct of monetary policy has been complicated by the inflows of private capital, surging oil earnings, and buoyant demand conditions. Although Kazakhstan has made considerable progress in the structural area, the pace of reform implementation has slowed. Rapid growth has translated into lower poverty, but social indicators remain weak.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth has strengthened in Kazakhstan supported by higher oil production and increased activity in trade and manufacturing. Robust exports have contributed to an improvement of the external current account. Inflation has declined and remained within the target band of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK). This, along with anchoring of inflationary expectations, has allowed the NBK to undertake several interest rate cuts. Growth is expected to remain solid, although there are risks. Overall growth will likely slow as the increase of oil production moderates, but non-oil growth should increase further over the medium term, reflecting structural reforms and financial repair and deepening.