Before the mid-seventeenth century, scholars generally agreed that it was impossible to predict something by calculating mathematical outcomes. One simply could not put a numerical value on the likelihood that a particular event would occur. Even the outcome of something as simple as a dice roll or the likelihood of showers instead of sunshine was thought to lie in the realm of pure, unknowable chance. The issue remained intractable until Blaise Pascal wrote to Pierre de Fermat in 1654, outlining a solution to the "unfinished game" problem: how do you divide the pot when players are forced to.
Introduction to Logic is clear and concise, uses interesting examples (many philosophical in nature), and has easy-to-use proof methods. Its key features, retained in this Third Edition, include: simpler ways to test arguments, including an innovative proof method and the star test for syllogisms; a wide scope of materials, suiting it for introductory or intermediate courses; engaging examples, from philosophy and everyday life; useful for self-study and preparation for standardized tests, like the LSAT; a reasonable price (a third the cost of some competitors); and exercises that correspond to the free LogiCola instructional program. This Third Edition: improves explanations, especially on areas that students find difficult; has a fuller explanation of traditional Copi proofs and of truth trees; and updates the companion LogiCola software, which now is touch friendly (for use on Windows tablets and touch monitors), installs more easily on Windows and Macintosh, and adds exercises on Copi proofs and on truth trees. You can still install LogiCola for free (from http://www.harryhiker.com/lc or http://www.routledge.com/cw/gensler).
Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.
In a game where players are expected to call their own penalties and scoring the least points leads to victory, decorum takes precedence over showmanship and philosophical questions become par for the course. Few other sports are as suited for ethical and metaphysical examination as golf. It is a game defined by dichotomies -- relaxing, yet frustrating, social, yet solitary -- and between these extremes there is room for much philosophical inquiry. In Golf and Philosophy: Lessons from the Links, a clubhouse full of skilled contributors tee off on a range of philosophical topics within the framework of the fairway. The book's chapters are arranged in the style of an eighteen-hole golf course, with the front nine exploring ethical matters of rationality and social civility in a world of moral hazards and roughs. The back nine pries even deeper, slicing into matters of the metaphysical, including chapters on mysticism, idealism, identity, and meaning. Taken together, the collection examines the intellectual nature of this beloved pastime, considering the many nuances of a sport that requires high levels of concentration, patience, and consistency, as well as upstanding moral character. Golf and Philosophy celebrates the joys and complexities of the game, demonstrating that golf has much to teach both its spectators and participants about modern life.
Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
This carefully crafted ebook collection is formatted for your eReader with a functional and detailed table of contents: The Human Comedy: Scenes From Private Life: At the Sign of the Cat and Racket The Ball at Sceaux The Purse Vendetta Madame Firmiani A Second Home Domestic Peace Paz Study of a Woman Another Study of Woman The Grand Breteche Albert Savarus Letters of Two Brides A Daughter of Eve A Woman of Thirty The Deserted Woman La Grenadiere The Message Gobseck The Marriage Contract A Start in Life Modeste Mignon Beatrix Honorine Colonel Chabert The Atheist's Mass The Commission in Lunacy Pierre Grassou Scenes From Provincial Life Ursule Mirouet Eugenie Grandet Pierrette The Vicar of Tours The Two Brothers The Illustrious Gaudissart The Muse of the Department Eve and David Scenes From Parisian Life Scenes from a Courtesan's Life A Prince of Bohemia A Man of Business Gaudissart II Unconscious Comedians Ferragus The Duchesse de Langeais The Girl with the Golden Eyes Father Goriot Rise and Fall of Cesar Birotteau The Firm of Nucingen Secrets of the Princesse de Cadignan Bureaucracy Sarrasine Facino Cane Cousin Betty Cousin Pons The Lesser Bourgeoisie Scenes From Political Life An Historical Mystery An Episode Under the Terror The Brotherhood of Consolation Z. Marcas The Deputy of Arcis Scenes From Military Life The Chouans A Passion in the Desert Scenes From Country Life The Country Doctor Juana Farewell The Recruit El Verdugo A Drama on the Seashore The Red Inn The Elixir of Life Maitre Cornelius Catherine de' Medici Louis Lambert The Exiles Seraphita Short Stories The Napoleon of the People Droll Stories Plays Vautrin The Resources of Quinola Paméla Giraud The Stepmother Mercadet Analytical Studies The Physiology of Marriage Petty Troubles of Married Life Letters to Madame Hanska The Complete Repertory Of The Comedie Humaine ...
First published in the year 1842, Russian writer-activist Nikolai Gogol's book 'Dead Souls' was one of the most appreciated satirical works of the 19th century Russian literature. The purpose of the novel was to demonstrate the flaws and faults of the Russian mentality and character.
Who doesn't love a bit of surprise, danger, eerie atmosphere, and just the right hint of romance! So, here's presenting to you our best ever gothic collection, with all the well known classics, all the hidden gems, and lots of surprises for all the fans of chills, darkness and mystery out there. Also, our biggest-ever collection is meticulously edited and formatted for your eReader with a functional and detailed table of contents: The Adventures of Ferdinand Count Fathom The Castle of Otranto The Old English Baron Vathek The Ghost-Seer The Castle of Wolfenbach Caleb Williams The Mysteries of Udolpho The Italian A Sicilian Romance The Romance of the Forest The Monk The Orphan of the Rhine The Rime of the Ancient Mariner Christabel Zastrozzi St. Irvyne Manfred Northanger Abbey Frankenstein... Isabella, or the Pot of Basil La Belle Dame Sans Merci The Raven The Tell-Tale Heart The Fall of the House of Usher The Cask of Amontillado... The Vampyre... The Private Memoirs and Confessions of a Justified Sinner Porphyria's Lover St, John's Eve The Viy... Jane Eyre Wuthering Heights Sweeney Todd, the Demon Barber of Fleet Street The House of the Seven Gables... The Woman in White Goblin Market The Headless Horseman Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde Carmilla Uncle Silas The Man-Wolf The Great Amherst Mystery The Hound of the Baskervilles... The Picture of Dorian Gray The Horla The Forsaken Inn The Yellow Wallpaper The Island of Doctor Moreau The Invisible Man The Beetle The Turn of the Screw... Dracula... The Necromancers The House on the Borderland The Phantom of the Opera... Wolverden Tower...
