Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories
Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories

Author: A. K. Kashyap

Publisher:

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines micro data on U.S. firms' inventories during different macroeconomic episodes. Much of the analysis focuses on the 1981-82 recession, a recession that was apparently precipitated by tight monetary policy. We find important cross-sectional effects in this period: firms that were "bank-dependent" were much more prone to shed inventories than their non-bank-dependent counterparts. In contrast, such cross-sectional differences are largely absent during a period of "loose" monetary policy later in the 1980s. Our findings are consistent with the view that 1) there is a bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission; 2) the lending channel is likely to be particularly important in explaining inventory fluctuations during downturns

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations
Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

Author: James H. Stock

Publisher:

Published: 1994

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13:

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An experiment is performed to assess the prevalence of instability in univariate and bivariate macroeconomic time series relations and to ascertain whether various adaptive forecasting techniques successfully handle any such instability. Formal tests for instability and out-of-sample forecasts from sixteen different models are computed using a sample of 76 representative U.S. monthly postwar macroeconomic time series, constituting 5700 bivariate forecasting relations. The tests indicate widespread instability in univariate and bivariate autoregressive models. However, adaptive forecasting models, in particular time varying parameter models, have limited success in exploiting this instability to improve upon fixed-parameter or recursive autoregressive forecasts.