Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher:

Published: 2020-06-30

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9781544508054

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The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher:

Published: 2023-07-22

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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The monograph investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress". Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=?, and the real world is in between, under of the "laws of the medium numbers" --which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence.A few examples:+ The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naive empiricism", but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods.+ The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical.+ Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics.+ Dimension reduction (principal components) fails.+ Inequality estimators (GINI or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results.+ Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions+ Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions.This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Dynamic Hedging
Dynamic Hedging

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 1997-01-14

Total Pages: 536

ISBN-13: 9780471152804

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Destined to become a market classic, Dynamic Hedging is the only practical reference in exotic options hedgingand arbitrage for professional traders and money managers Watch the professionals. From central banks to brokerages to multinationals, institutional investors are flocking to a new generation of exotic and complex options contracts and derivatives. But the promise of ever larger profits also creates the potential for catastrophic trading losses. Now more than ever, the key to trading derivatives lies in implementing preventive risk management techniques that plan for and avoid these appalling downturns. Unlike other books that offer risk management for corporate treasurers, Dynamic Hedging targets the real-world needs of professional traders and money managers. Written by a leading options trader and derivatives risk advisor to global banks and exchanges, this book provides a practical, real-world methodology for monitoring and managing all the risks associated with portfolio management. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the founder of Empirica Capital LLC, a hedge fund operator, and a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University. He has held a variety of senior derivative trading positions in New York and London and worked as an independent floor trader in Chicago. Dr. Taleb was inducted in February 2001 in the Derivatives Strategy Hall of Fame. He received an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from University Paris-Dauphine.

Incerto
Incerto

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House Trade

Published: 2021-05-04

Total Pages: 1873

ISBN-13: 059324365X

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The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails
The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails

Author: Jayakrishnan Nair

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2022-06-09

Total Pages: 266

ISBN-13: 1009062964

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Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.

The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails
The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Penguin Press

Published: 2019-04-04

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 9780141988368

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The Logic and Statistics of Fat Tails is the definitive source on fat-tailed distribution and an essential technical read for students, accountants and those working in finance.

Probability Theory
Probability Theory

Author: L. E. Maistrov

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2014-07-03

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 1483218635

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Probability Theory: A Historical Sketch covers the probability theory, mainly axiomatization problems. The book discusses the prehistory of the probability theory; the first stage in the development of probability theory; and the development of probability theory to the middle of the 19th century. The text also describes the probability theory in the second half of the 19th century; and the axiomatic foundations of the probability theory. Historians and mathematicians will find the book invaluable.

Probability, Statistics, and Truth
Probability, Statistics, and Truth

Author: Richard Von Mises

Publisher: Courier Corporation

Published: 1981-01-01

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 0486242145

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This comprehensive study of probability considers the approaches of Pascal, Laplace, Poisson, and others. It also discusses Laws of Large Numbers, the theory of errors, and other relevant topics.

Robust Statistical Procedures
Robust Statistical Procedures

Author: Jana Jurecková

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 1996-04-19

Total Pages: 496

ISBN-13: 9780471822219

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A broad and unified methodology for robust statistics—with exciting new applications Robust statistics is one of the fastest growing fields in contemporary statistics. It is also one of the more diverse and sometimes confounding areas, given the many different assessments and interpretations of robustness by theoretical and applied statisticians. This innovative book unifies the many varied, yet related, concepts of robust statistics under a sound theoretical modulation. It seamlessly integrates asymptotics and interrelations, and provides statisticians with an effective system for dealing with the interrelations between the various classes of procedures. Drawing on the expertise of researchers from around the world, and covering over a decade's worth of developments in the field, Robust Statistical Procedures: Asymptotics and Interrelations: Discusses both theory and applications in its two parts, from the fundamentals to robust statistical inference Thoroughly explores the interrelations between diverse classes of procedures, unlike any other book Compares nonparametric procedures with robust statistics, explaining in detail asymptotic representations for various estimators Provides a timesaving list of mathematical tools for the problems under discussion Keeps mathematical abstractions to a minimum, in spite of its largely theoretical content Includes useful problems and exercises at the end of each chapter Offers strategies for more complex models when using robust statistical procedures Self-contained and rounded in approach, this book is invaluable for both applied statisticians and theoretical researchers; for graduate students in mathematical statistics; and for anyone interested in the influence of this methodology.

Fooled by Randomness
Fooled by Randomness

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House

Published: 2008-10-14

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 1588367673

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Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year