Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Author: Karin Riley

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-12-12

Total Pages: 356

ISBN-13: 1119027861

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Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Uncertainty in Remote Sensing and GIS
Uncertainty in Remote Sensing and GIS

Author: Giles M. Foody

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2003-07-11

Total Pages: 326

ISBN-13: 0470859245

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Remote sensing and geographical information science (GIS) have advanced considerably in recent years. However, the potential of remote sensing and GIS within the environmental sciences is limited by uncertainty, especially in connection with the data sets and methods used. In many studies, the issue of uncertainty has been incompletely addressed. The situation has arisen in part from a lack of appreciation of uncertainty and the problems it can cause as well as of the techniques that may be used to accommodate it. This book provides general overviews on uncertainty in remote sensing and GIS that illustrate the range of uncertainties that may occur, in addition to describing the means of measuring uncertainty and the impacts of uncertainty on analyses and interpretations made. Uncertainty in Remote Sensing and GIS provides readers with comprehensive coverage of this largely undocumented subject: * Relevant to a broad variety of disciplines including geography, environmental science, electrical engineering and statistics * Covers range of material from base overviews to specific applications * Focuses on issues connected with uncertainty at various points along typical data analysis chains used in remote sensing and GIS Written by an international team of researchers drawn from a variety of disciplines, Uncertainty in Remote Sensing and GIS provides focussed discussions on topics of considerable importance to a broad research and user community. The book is invaluable reading for researchers, advanced students and practitioners who want to understand the nature of uncertainty in remote sensing and GIS, its limitations and methods of accommodating it.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-02-03

Total Pages: 212

ISBN-13: 1118489586

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Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Dynamics Under Uncertainty: Modeling Simulation and Complexity
Dynamics Under Uncertainty: Modeling Simulation and Complexity

Author: Dragan Pamučar

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages: 210

ISBN-13: 9783036515755

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The dynamics of systems have proven to be very powerful tools in understanding the behavior of different natural phenomena throughout the last two centuries. However, the attributes of natural systems are observed to deviate from their classical states due to the effect of different types of uncertainties. Actually, randomness and impreciseness are the two major sources of uncertainties in natural systems. Randomness is modeled by different stochastic processes and impreciseness could be modeled by fuzzy sets, rough sets, Dempster-Shafer theory, etc.

Flood Risk Assessments
Flood Risk Assessments

Author: Andrés Díez-Herrero

Publisher:

Published: 2020-09-09

Total Pages: 348

ISBN-13: 9783039369386

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In recent years, a considerable volume of technical literature has been published on flood hazard analysis, and more recently, on flood vulnerability and resilience. Nevertheless, there is still a shortage of scientific studies and practical experience of real flood risk assessment (both social and economic), including hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses and their integration. As there are so few references available, applications of flood risk assessment to the design of preventive measures and early warning systems, landscape and urban planning, civil protection, insurance systems, and risk-based information and education, cannot reach their full potential development. This is because the research products available, such as hazard data and maps, do not serve to ensure the efficient prioritization of mitigation measures or communities at risk. Meanwhile, flooding is the natural disaster that causes the greatest loss on a global scale, and due to climate change, this situation is expected to continue. The research manuscripts involved in this book try to offer flood risk managers new tools, data and maps to improve risk mitigation, both preventive and corrective. A wide variety of topics have been covered, including: flood risk data sources; techniques and methodologies for flood risk analysis; flood risk mapping; or flood risk analysis calibrations.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 1994-01-01

Total Pages: 668

ISBN-13: 030904894X

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The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment
Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment

Author: Enrico Zio

Publisher: FonCSI

Published: 2013-12-14

Total Pages: 69

ISBN-13:

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The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented:  a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature;  assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor;  an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.

Improving Operations and Long-Term Safety of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
Improving Operations and Long-Term Safety of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2001-07-11

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 0309073448

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The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a deep underground mined facility for the disposal of transuranic waste resulting from the nation's defense program. Transuranic waste is defined as waste contaminated with transuranic radionuclides with half-life greater than 20 years and activity greater than 100 nanocuries per gram. The waste mainly consists of contaminated protective clothing, rags, old tools and equipment, pieces of dismantled buildings, chemical residues, and scrap materials. The total activity of the waste expected to be disposed at the WIPP is estimated to be approximately 7 million curies, including 12,900 kilograms of plutonium distributed throughout the waste in very dilute form. The WIPP is located near the community of Carlsbad, in southeastern New Mexico. The geological setting is a 600-meter thick, 250 million-year-old saltbed, the Salado Formation, lying 660 meters below the surface. The National Research Council (NRC) has been providing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) scientific and technical evaluations of the WIPP since 1978. The committee's task is twofold: (1) to identify technical issues that can be addressed to enhance confidence in the safe and long-term performance of the repository and (2) to identify opportunities for improving the National Transuranic (TRU) Program for waste management, especially with regard to the safety of workers and the public. This is the first full NRC report issued following the certification of the facility by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on May 18, 1998. An interim report was issued by the committee in April 2000 and is reproduced in this report. The main findings and recommendations from the interim report have been incorporated into the body of this report. The overarching finding and recommendation of this report is that the activity that would best enhance confidence in the safe and long-term performance of the repository is to monitor critical performance parameters during the long pre-closure phase of repository operations (35 to possibly 100 years). Indeed, in the first 50 to 100 years the rates of important processes such as salt creep, brine inflow (if any), and microbial activity are predicted to be the highest and will be less significant later. The committee recommends that the results of the on-site monitoring program be used to improve the performance assessment for recertification purposes. These results will determine whether the need for a new performance assessment is warranted. For the National TRU Program, the committee finds that the DOE is implementing many of the recommendations of its interim report. It is important that the DOE continue its efforts to improve the packaging, characterization, and transportation of the transuranic waste.

Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk
Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

Author: Marjolein B.A. van Asselt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-03-09

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13: 9401725837

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This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.