Directed both at students of international finance and practitioners in the field, the book stresses the importance of treating the analysis of sovereign risk in a more general framework than is typically the case, identifying the components of both the demand and supply of sovereign loans. The author also discusses the link between the unique aspects of sovereign lending, the interdependence of the international banking system and the potential instability in the world financial system.
Global payments imbalances and the rise of emerging economies provide the background to this analysis of risk exposure and near-insolvency at the world’s major banks. Emerging Risk was published in 1985, three years after the first international banking crisis of the post-War era, but prior to resolution after 1989 of the underlying sovereign debt overhang. With episodes of international financial instability punctuating the following quarter century until the Lehman collapse of 2008, this re-issue will contribute to the historical perspective on modern diagnoses of policy weakness and financial sector excess that is clearly needed. Whereas OPEC price increases in the 1970s were a source of the earlier global imbalances, Chinese surpluses and those occasioned by her rapid growth among commodity and oil producing countries are today’s equivalents. Emerging Risk documents the earlier poor employment of surplus funds ‘recycled’ to Latin America, much as the failure of the USA and others to use Asian financing productively is now evident. The role of the main global banking institutions in each of these outcomes reveals common threads. As a reading of Emerging Risk will confirm, both the special consequences of free competition in a global banking market, and the perverse incentives inherent in the remuneration of loan officers, were clearly present in the mid-1980s. The interaction of regulation and the competitive response of banks to produce increased reliance on wholesale borrowing and lending, together with enhanced gearing, have clear echoes in modern debates over the consequences of the Basel provisions.
Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.
A hands-on guide to the theory and practice of bank credit analysis and ratings In this revised edition, Jonathan Golin and Philippe Delhaise expand on the role of bank credit analysts and the methodology of their practice. Offering investors and practitioners an insider's perspective on how rating agencies assign all-important credit ratings to banks, the book is updated to reflect today's environment of increased oversight and demands for greater transparency. It includes international case studies of bank credit analysis, suggestions and insights for understanding and complying with the Basel Accords, techniques for reviewing asset quality on both quantitative and qualitative bases, explores the restructuring of distressed banks, and much more. Features charts, graphs, and spreadsheet illustrations to further explain topics discussed in the text Includes international case studies from North America, Asia, and Europe that offer readers a global perspective Offers coverage of the Basel Accords on Capital Adequacy and Liquidity and shares the authors' view that a bank could be compliant under those and other regulations without being creditworthy A uniquely practical guide to bank credit analysis as it is currently practiced around the world, The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook, Second Edition is a must-have resource for equity analysts, credit analysts, and bankers, as well as wealth managers and investors.
Global payments imbalances and the rise of emerging economies provide the background to this analysis of risk exposure and near-insolvency at the world's major banks. Emerging Risk was published in 1985, three years after the first international banking crisis of the post-War era, but prior to resolution after 1989 of the underlying sovereign debt overhang. With episodes of international financial instability punctuating the following quarter century until the Lehman collapse of 2008, this re-issue will contribute to the historical perspective on modern diagnoses of policy weakness and financial sector excess that is clearly needed. Whereas OPEC price increases in the 1970s were a source of the earlier global imbalances, Chinese surpluses and those occasioned by her rapid growth among commodity and oil producing countries are today's equivalents. Emerging Risk documents the earlier poor employment of surplus funds 'recycled' to Latin America, much as the failure of the USA and others to use Asian financing productively is now evident. The role of the main global banking institutions in each of these outcomes reveals common threads. As a reading of Emerging Risk will confirm, both the special consequences of free competition in a global banking market, and the perverse incentives inherent in the remuneration of loan officers, were clearly present in the mid-1980s. The interaction of regulation and the competitive response of banks to produce increased reliance on wholesale borrowing and lending, together with enhanced gearing, have clear echoes in modern debates over the consequences of the Basel provisions.
An intelligent analysis of the dangers, opportunities, and consequences of global sovereign debt Sovereign debt is growing internationally at a terrifying rate, as nations seek to prop up their collapsing economies. One only needs to look at the sovereign risk pressures faced by Greece, Spain, and Ireland to get an idea of how big this problem has become. Understanding this dilemma is now more important than ever, that's why Robert Kolb has compiled Sovereign Debt. With this book as your guide, you'll gain a better perspective on the essential issues surrounding sovereign debt and default through discussions of national defaults, systemic risk, associated costs, and much more. Historical studies are also included to provide a realistic framework of reference. Contains up-to-date research and analysis on sovereign debt from today's leading practitioners and academics Details the dangers of defaults and their associated systemic risks Explores the past, present, and future of sovereign debt The repercussions of a national default are all-encompassing as global markets are intricately interwoven in the modern world. Sovereign Debt examines what it will take to overcome the challenges of this market and how you can deal with the uncertainty surrounding it.
Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk provides case studies, commentary and analysis on the financial risk management and measurement in the context of frontier and developing counties from international experts covering three key areas of emerging market investments, the rating sovereign risk and managing sovereign risk.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sovereigns, and a GVAR model to combine the banking, the sovereign, and the macro sphere. The CCA indicators capture the nonlinearity of changes in bank assets, equity capital, credit spreads, and default probabilities. They capture the expected losses, spreads and default probability for sovereigns. Key to the framework is that sovereign credit spreads, banking system credit risk, corporate sector credit risk, economic growth, and credit variables are combined in a fully endogenous setting. Upon estimation and calibration of the global model, we simulate various negative and positive shock scenarios, particularly to bank and sovereign risk. The goal is to use this framework to analyze the impact and spillover of shocks and to help identify policies that would mitigate banking system, sovereign credit risk and recession risk—policies including bank capital increases, purchase of sovereign debt, and guarantees.
