A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.
This paper discusses developments and prospects for energy, metals, and food markets since the early 2000s, the start of what is termed a commodities supercycle—the rise of commodity prices over a decade or more as a result of a rapid urbanization and an expansion of infrastructure. Macroeconomists often assume that technological innovation is exogenous (driven largely by external factors or forces), but this volume documents how innovation in energy markets is directly affected by prices. When oil, natural gas, or fossil fuels become scarce, prices increase. This stimulates innovation and the adoption of new technologies and techniques for recovery and use of these resources. Conversely, when these commodities are abundant, prices fall, slowing the pace of innovation and the adoption of new techniques. At the heart of international trade in commodities are cross-country differenc¬es in resource endowments. Natural resources are materials or substances that occur in nature and can be used for economic gain, and so these include not only reserves of hydrocarbons, minerals, fisheries, and forests, but also temperate weather, fertile land, and access to water, which are important to agriculture.
The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.
You can make large profits by trading commodities--but you’ll need significant practical knowledge of the associated risks and market characteristics before you start.A Trader’s First Book on Commoditiesis a simple, practical and useful guide for new commodities traders. Author Carley Garner provides specific guidance on accessing commodity markets cost-effectively, avoiding common beginners’ mistakes, and improving the odds of successful, profitable trades. Drawing on her extensive experience teaching traders, Garner shows how to calculate profit, loss, and risk in commodities, and choose the best brokerage firm, service level, data sources, and market access for your needs. She’ll help you: · Master the basics of trading commodities painlessly, avoiding beginners mistakes · Get what you need, and prevent paying for what you don’t need · Know what you’re buying, what it costs, the returns you’re earning and the risk you’re taking · Predict price, manage risk, and make trades that reflect your analysis Garner demystifies the industry’s colorful language, helps you clearly understand what you’re buying and selling, and walks you through the entire trading process. She concludes with a refreshingly new look at topics such as trading plans, handling margin calls, and even maintaining emotional stability as a trader. “This book provides the type of information every trader needs to know and the type of information too many traders had to learn the hard and expensive way. Carley offers practical need-to-know, real-world trading tips that are lacking in many books on futures. It will help not only the novice trader, but seasoned veterans as well. This book will serve as a must-have reference in every trader’s library.” --Phil Flynn, Vice President and Senior Market analyst at PFGBest Research, and a Fox Business Network contributor “Refreshing–It’s nice to see a broker who has actually been exposed to the professional side of trading and who bridges that chasm between exchange floor trading and customer service. Carley takes the time to explain verbiage, not just throw buzz words around. A good educational read in my opinion.” --Don Bright, Director, Bright Trading, LLC “This book has the perfect name, the perfect message, and the necessary information for any beginning trader. Take this book home!” --Glen Larson, President, Genesis Financial Technologies, Inc. “As a 35-year veteran of the CME/CBOT trading floor, I can tell you…those who think they can begin trading commodities without knowing the less talked about topics that Carley discusses inA Trader’s First Book on Commoditiesare sadly mistaken. Anyone who trades their own account, or would like to, should read this book.” --Danny Riley, DT Trading
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."
In the early 2000s, Chinese demand for imported commodities ballooned as the country continued its breakneck economic growth. Simultaneously, global markets in metals and fuels experienced a boom of unprecedented extent and duration. Meanwhile, resource-rich states in the Global South from Argentina to Angola began to advance a range of new development strategies, breaking away from the economic orthodoxies to which they had long appeared tied. In China’s Wake reveals the surprising connections among these three phenomena. Nicholas Jepson shows how Chinese demand not only transformed commodity markets but also provided resource-rich states with the financial leeway to set their own policy agendas, insulated from the constraints and pressures of capital markets and multilateral creditors such as the International Monetary Fund. He combines analysis of China-led structural change with fine-grained detail on how the boom played out across fifteen different resource-rich countries. Jepson identifies five types of response to boom conditions among resource exporters, each one corresponding to a particular pattern of domestic social and political dynamics. Three of these represent fundamental breaks with dominant liberal orthodoxy—and would have been infeasible without spiraling Chinese demand. Jepson also examines the end of the boom and its consequences, as well as the possible implications of future China-driven upheavals. Combining a novel theoretical approach with detailed empirical analysis at national and global scales, In China’s Wake is an important contribution to global political economy and international development studies.
For many academics, students, and professionals, the field of commodities is a black box. This book explores commodities in a holistic manner, presenting concepts from a multidisciplinary business and financial perspective, and offering a panoramic view of the global commodity business and markets. In this book, the author presents core issues related to global commodities with recent data including COVID-19. The book introduces the key physical commodities traded globally and some related issues such as the global supply chain, global trading, transportation, storage, and how to finance global commodity trades. Then, it discusses how global commodity businesses and traders manage global risks related to commodity production (generation or extraction), transportation, storage, the final delivery, and currency exchange. Additionally, the book discusses financial commodities, the origins of global commodity derivatives and exchanges, the rationale behind the birth of commodity futures and trading, hedging, speculation, financialization, and manipulation of commodity markets, and how financial trading is executed in real life. In the last section, the author also discusses sustainability issues related to global commodities and the financial valuation aspects of the global commodity businesses supported by examples from real cases with recent data.
