One of the best known statisticians of the 20th century, Frederick Mosteller has inspired numerous statisticians and other scientists by his creative approach to statistics and its applications. This volume collects 40 of his most original and influential papers, capturing the variety and depth of his writings. It is hoped that sharing these writings with a new generation of researchers will inspire them to build upon his insights and efforts.
From his unique perspective, renowned statistician and educator Frederick Mosteller describes many of the projects and events in his long career. From humble beginnings in western Pennsylvania to becoming the founding chairman of Harvard University’s Department of Statistics and beyond, he inspired many statisticians, scientists, and students with his unabashed pragmatism, creative thinking, and zest for both learning and teaching. This candid account offers fresh insights into the qualities that made Mosteller a superb teacher, a prolific scholar, a respected leader, and a valued advisor. A special feature of the book is its chapter-length insider accounts of work on the pre-election polls of 1948, statistical aspects of the Kinsey report on sexual behavior in the human male, mathematical learning theory, authorship of the disputed Federalist papers, safety of anesthetics, and a wide-ranging examination of the Coleman report on equality of educational opportunity. This volume is a companion to Selected Papers of Frederick Mosteller (Springer, 2006) and A Statistical Model: Frederick Mosteller’s Contributions to Statistics, Science, and Public Policy (Springer-Verlag, 1990). Frederick Mosteller (1916–2006) was Roger I. Lee Professor of Mathematical Statistics at Harvard University. His manuscript was unfinished at his death and has been updated.
The resilience of the Communist party-state, in combination with a rapidly expanding economy, represents a significant deviant case for the debate about models of development. This book focuses on the manner in which China's governmental system can be developed, formulated, implemented, adjusted, and revised. Policy-making is seen as an open ended process with an uncertain outcome, driven by conflicting interests, recurrent interactions, and continuous feedback, rather than determined by history, regime type, or institutions. Key to this are the capacity to deal with both existing and emerging challenges, correction mechanisms when conflicts arise, and adaptive capabilities in a changing economic or international context.
The pioneering research of Hirotugu Akaike has an international reputation for profoundly affecting how data and time series are analyzed and modelled and is highly regarded by the statistical and technological communities of Japan and the world. His 1974 paper "A new look at the statistical model identification" (IEEE Trans Automatic Control, AC-19, 716-723) is one of the most frequently cited papers in the area of engineering, technology, and applied sciences (according to a 1981 Citation Classic of the Institute of Scientific Information). It introduced the broad scientific community to model identification using the methods of Akaike's criterion AIC. The AIC method is cited and applied in almost every area of physical and social science. The best way to learn about the seminal ideas of pioneering researchers is to read their original papers. This book reprints 29 papers of Akaike's more than 140 papers. This book of papers by Akaike is a tribute to his outstanding career and a service to provide students and researchers with access to Akaike's innovative and influential ideas and applications. To provide a commentary on the career of Akaike, the motivations of his ideas, and his many remarkable honors and prizes, this book reprints "A Conversation with Hirotugu Akaike" by David F. Findley and Emanuel Parzen, published in 1995 in the journal Statistical Science. This survey of Akaike's career provides each of us with a role model for how to have an impact on society by stimulating applied researchers to implement new statistical methods.
Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
In Problem Solving, Decision Making, and Professional Judgment: A Guide for Lawyers and Policymakers, Paul Brest and Linda Hamilton Krieger prepare students and professionals to be creative problem solvers, wise counselors, and effective decision makers. The authors provide readers with knowledge of decision theory, probability and statistics, social and cognitive psychology, and arm them against common sources of judgment error. The ultimate goal is to help readers "get it right" in their roles as professionals, citizens, and individuals.
This book presents the latest research on three issues of crucial importance to Asian cities: governance, livability, and sustainability. Together, these issues canvass the salient trends defining Asian urbanization and are explored through an eclectic compendium of studies that represent the many voices of this diverse region. Examining the processes and implications of Asian urbanization, the book interweaves practical cases with theories and empirical rigor while lending insight and complexity into the towering challenges of urban governance. The book targets a broad audience including thinkers, practitioners, and students.
David E. Over is a leading cognitive scientist and, with his firm grounding in philosophical logic, he also exerts a powerful influence on the psychology of reasoning. He is responsible for not only a large body of empirical work and accompanying theory, but for advancing a major shift in thinking about reasoning, commonly known as the ‘new paradigm’ in the psychology of human reasoning. Over’s signature mix of philosophical logic and experimental psychology has inspired generations of researchers, psychologists, and philosophers alike over more than a quarter of a century. The chapters in this volume, written by a leading group of contributors including a number who helped shape the psychology of reasoning as we know it today, each take their starting point from the key themes of Over’s ground-breaking work. The essays in this collection explore a wide range of central topics—such as rationality, bias, dual processes, and dual systems—as well as contemporary psychological and philosophical theories of conditionals. It concludes with an engaging new chapter, authored by David E. Over himself, which details and analyses the new paradigm psychology of reasoning. This book is therefore important reading for scholars, researchers, and advanced students in psychology, philosophy, and the cognitive sciences, including those who are not familiar with Over’s thought already.
The 1964 publication of Inference and Disputed Authorship made the cover of Time magazine and the attention of academics and the public alike for its use of statistical methodology to solve one of American history's most notorious questions: the disputed authorship of the Federalist Papers. Back in print for a new generation of readers, this classic volume applies mathematics, including the once-controversial Bayesian analysis, into the heart of a literary and historical problem by studying frequently used words in the texts. The reissue of this landmark book will be welcomed by anyone interested in the juncture of history, political science, and authorship.
