Every day, billions of human beings are making dozens of decisions that do not appear based on the same, seemingly sound mathematical principles they would apply to a gambling or investing situation. Yet these decisions are not irrational, rather they are the product of an innate sense pertaining to risk and opportunity. This Second Edition is presented for the non-mathematician (though the underlying math is provided for those who are interested), and not only gives reason to reconsider the bases we assess gambling and investing situations, but reveals this magnificent, innate ability we possess.For decades various mathematical notions have presented themselves which, though applicable to domains such as probability, game theory, operations research, and quantitative finance, have fallen essentially outside the purview of these various disciplines. Yet the concepts detailed in this text are all related, and taken together comprise their own niche-discipline, introduced here as Risk-Opportunity Analysis.
With step-by-step guidelines, this bestselling reference discusses the management of project opportunities by expanding the traditional risk management process to address opportunities alongside threats. It offers valuable tools and techniques that expose and capture opportunities, minimize threats, and deal with all types of uncertainty in your business and projects. Written by an experienced consultant and risk management specialist, this guide emphasizes that risk processes must cover both opportunities and threats if they are to assist in accomplishing project objectives and maximizing business benefits.
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Dr. Hagen presents a complete system by which companies can more easily and consistently manage their portfolio of problems, risks, and opportunities. His methodology was based on a foundation of neuroscience and logical decision analytics.
Since I wrote the Foreword for the second edition of this book, risk management processes have become much more widely used, but controversy about what should be done and how best to do it has grown. Managing risk is a risky business. Chapman and Ward provide an in-depth explanation of why it is important to understand and manage underlying uncertainty in all its forms, in order to realise opportunities more fully and enhance corporate performance. They show what best practice should look like. The implications go well beyond the conventional wisdom of project risk management, providing an enlightening new perspective. —Professor Tony M. Ridley Imperial College London, Past President, Institution of Civil Engineers Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward continue to educate the profession with this masterful exposition of the differences between, and the potentials for combinations of, risk, uncertainty and opportunity. Particularly welcome is the way they integrate this trio into the project lifecycle – the bedrock of project management control and organization. —Peter W.G. Morris Head of School and Professor of Construction and Project Management University College London Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward’s books on Project Risk Management have been an essential part of my repertoire for twenty years, and they are top of my recommended reading for the courses I do on that subject. In this book they have enhanced their previous work to focus on uncertainty management and emphasise more strongly opportunities for improving project performance, rather then just identifying what can go wrong. A structured process is an essential part of managing project uncertainty, and their process is one of the most powerful. This book will be added to my repertoire. —Rodney Turner Professor of Project Management, SKEMA Business School Lille A profoundly important book. With How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk, Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward take a good thing and make it better. Members of the project management profession have been influenced for years by their insights into project risk management. With this latest instalment the authors demonstrate that risk and uncertainty needn’t be dreaded; in fact, the reverse side of the ‘risk coin’ has always been opportunity. My sincere appreciation to Chapman and Ward for turning this particular coin over and showing readers, academic and practitioner alike, the opportunity embedded in managing projects. —Jeffrey K. Pinto Andrew Morrow and Elizabeth Lee Black Chair in Management of Technology Sam and Irene Black School of Business, Penn State Erie
Much of the work in this volume was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant SES82-05112 from the Program in History and Philosophy of Science and the Division of Policy Research and Analysis. (Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. ) Several of these essays were written because of the impetus afforded by speaking invitations. An earlier version of Chapter 3 was presented in Berkeley in January 1983 at a Principal Investi gators' Conference sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Division of Policy Research and Analysis, Technology Assessment and Risk Assessment Group. In May 1982, an earlier version of Chapter 5 was presented at the meeting of the Society for Philos ophy and Technology, held in conjunction with the American Philosophical Association meeting, Western Division, in Columbus, Ohio. Finally, earlier versions of Chapter 6 were presented in Boston in December 1981 at the Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of Science, as well as at the University of Delaware in January 1982 and at the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association held in Philadelphia in October 1982. An earlier version of this same chapter was published in Philosophy of Science Association 82, volume 1, ed. T. Nickles, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan, 1982. A number of people have helped to make this book better than it might have been.
Today, Apple is biggest or one of the biggest companies on the planet. At the start, however, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak built their computers from their parents’ garage. They wanted to sell their designs to Atari (which was where Jobs had worked). Atari said no. They even said Atari could have the computer as-is and asked to just work for Atari instead. They still said no. Now Apple is the biggest brand in computing and consumer electronics and Atari is best known for PONG. How do you like Atari’s decision? Decisions are the life of any business, and really of any success. You have to make large and small ones all the time and unfortunately, it’s not always straightforward which way to go. Make the right ones more often than the wrong ones and you’ll be successful. Make the wrong ones too often or make critical mistakes and you can miss out on opportunities like Atari did or frankly, take your company bankrupt. What are the chief elements that go into decision making? Why is it so hard for some business owners and not for others? Is just that some people are better than others at dealing with it or are there skills that can be learned? Do you just flip a coin? Decision making can be stressful -in many instances it makes or breaks us -so it’s important that we’re in the best possible position to make decisions when we need to.
The Managing Risk and Opportunity Module is to introduce the tools, techniques and methodologies associated with risk and opportunity, that have been identified as being “best tested and proven” practices and which have been found to work on “most projects, most of the time”; provide a logical or rational sequence showing when those tools or techniques would normally and customarily be used and in selected instances, show how to use those tools/techniques and/or where to find additional information on how to use or apply them.
With more than three decades of experience as a thought-leader and expert practitioner, PMI Fellow Dr. David Hillson shares practical insight into how upside risks can be identified, assessed, and managed as opportunities. After reviewing the benefits of identifying opportunities, the book steps through the opportunity identification and management process in detail, describing proven tools and techniques as well as specific tips to make them work in practice. The book places opportunity management in the context of traditional risk management, providing a familiar pathway that leads project managers to discover new benefits and successes. David Hillson is one of the foremost authorities on risk management. With his latest book he presents a strong case for managing opportunities. As with all of David’s books, the style of writing is engaging and easy to understand. There are many nuggets of wisdom in this book, as well as a hands-on approach to leveraging opportunity management as a way of improving project performance. — Cyndi Snyder Dionisio, PMI Fellow, Coronado CA, USA. (Chair of the PMBOK® Guide, Sixth Edition) I enjoyed reading this book, which is precise, clear, logical, and persuasive. The clarity of thought and expression explains why David is such a sought-after speaker. This book is a must-read for project risk practitioners, as well as for project professionals who are serious about addressing all the risks on their project, including the good ones. — Dr Dale Cooper, Cammeray NSW, Australia. (Director, Broadleaf Capital International) At last, a clear and valuable book linking both sides of the coin in risk management: threats and opportunities. David Hillson truly engages the reader on how to deal with these two types of risk in projects, sharing his wisdom and extensive experience in creating value from risk management. Anyone who has to manage risk in real-world projects should read this book to enhance their opportunity management skills. — Professor Salim Al-Harthi, Muscat, Oman. (Director of Risk Management Office, Sultan Qaboos University) It is vital for value creation in business and in life that we consider uncertainties that would have upside impacts on our objectives (opportunities), as well as downside impacts (threats). Business gets confused between opportunities where there is a binary choice to take or not, and true uncertain opportunities that can be seized, or left to chance. David has persevered in helping us understand this and this important book is a must-read for all leaders who want to create value through the proactive management of risk. — Dr Ruth Murray-Webster, Wakefield, UK. (Partner, Beyond the Deal LLP and Editor, APM Body of Knowledge, 7th Edition) As project managers, we always seem to focus on threats, negative risks. David Hillson, one of the foremost thought-leaders on risk management, explains approaches to identify and manage opportunities, positive risks and how this will help achieve project success. As with his previous books, David provides a structured approach with examples, tools, and techniques. An excellent resource for all project managers in today’s world. — Peter Monkhouse, Toronto ON, Canada. (Past Chair PMI Board of Directors)
With step-by-step guidelines, this bestselling reference discusses the management of project opportunities by expanding the traditional risk management process to address opportunities alongside threats. It offers valuable tools and techniques that expose and capture opportunities, minimize threats, and deal with all types of uncertainty in your business and projects. Written by an experienced consultant and risk management specialist, this guide emphasizes that risk processes must cover both opportunities and threats if they are to assist in accomplishing project objectives and maximizing business benefits.
