The world remains in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change, both of which underscore the need for increased global cooperation and dialogue. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and all regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population, most promising renewable energy potential, and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. In particular, the economic outlook points to divergences at three levels: between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions, within sub-Saharan Africa, and within countries. These divergences reflect the region’s slower vaccines rollout, more limited fiscal space, and regional disparities in resilience. The outlook remains extremely uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the path of the global pandemic and the regional vaccination effort, food price inflation, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. Looking ahead, sub-Saharan Africa’s potential remains undiminished. The region is at a critical juncture to implement bold transformative reforms to capitalize on this potential.
Sub-Saharan Africa is still contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis. In the months since the October 2020 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, the region has confronted a second coronavirus (COVID-19) wave that swiftly outpaced the scale and speed of the first. While this episode has eased for now, many countries are bracing for further waves, particularly as access to vaccines remains scant.
La planète reste aux prises avec la pandémie de COVID-19 et avec une accélération apparente des changements climatiques, qui toutes deux soulignent la nécessité de renforcer la coopération et le dialogue à l’échelle mondiale. Les solutions à ces défis mondiaux doivent mobiliser tous les pays et toutes les régions, surtout l’Afrique subsaharienne, qui possède la population la moins vaccinée au monde, un potentiel très prometteur en matière d’énergies renouvelables et des écosystèmes critiques. La croissance de l’Afrique subsaharienne devrait s’établir à 3,7 % en 2021 puis à 3,8 % en 2022. Cette reprise suit la forte contraction observée en 2020 et est la bienvenue, mais elle reste la plus lente parmi toutes les régions. En particulier, les perspectives économiques présentent des divergences à trois niveaux : entre l’Afrique subsaharienne et les autres régions, au sein de l’Afrique subsaharienne et au sein des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Ces divergences tiennent à des campagnes de vaccination plus lentes, à un espace budgétaire plus restreint et à des disparités régionales sur le plan de la résilience. Les perspectives demeurent extrêmement incertaines et risquent d’être révisées à la baisse. La reprise dépend notamment du rythme de la pandémie mondiale et de la campagne de vaccination dans la région, ainsi que de la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires, et est aussi exposée aux perturbations de l’activité mondiale et des marchés financiers. Le potentiel de l’Afrique subsaharienne reste intact. La région se trouve à un moment critique pour opérer des réformes audacieuses et porteuses de transformations afin d’exploiter ce potentiel.
The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.
The war in Ukraine is taking a growing toll on Europe’s economies. The worsening energy crisis has depressed households’ purchasing power and raised firms’ costs, only partly offset by new government support. Central banks in the region and the world are acting more forcefully to bring high and persistent inflation down to targets, and global financial conditions have tightened. European policymakers are facing severe trade-offs and tough policy choices. A tightening macroeconomic policy stance is needed to bring down inflation, while helping vulnerable households and viable firms weather the energy crisis. But policies need to stay nimble and agile and adjust should additional shocks materialize.